September 2004 Archives

Over the past week or two I have followed a few conversations on weather bulletin boards considering the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. Usually, if you hear a hurricane forecast, it is couched with mentions of how hurricane forecasts are very difficult to make.

Let's use layman's terms: inaccurate.

This is a given. It is a part of my field I wish was better - though I understand why it's not.

After Hurricane Charley, there has been a lot of thought given to how people in the Fort Myers area weren't prepared for the storm even though they were in the Hurricane Warning Area. Maybe... just maybe... it has something to do with how we on TV, and the Hurricane Center, display these forecasts.

The projected path is a line and is bordered by an area of possible error, which expands over time. The thought is, get rid of the line and just show the larger area that displays our margin of error.

It's a good idea and I'm going to implement it in my system later today.

The problem with the line is, it makes people think we're more accurate than we really are. Here's an example of a similar situation. Last winter, the news director for one of my competitors told a magazine reporter that her meteorologists could predict snowfall to the fraction of an inch. What probably happened was, she saw computer outputs that went to 2 places to the right of the decimal point and thought, because it was printed that way, it would be that way!

In order to produce forecasts we often make assumptions and use numbers that imply more accuracy than we have. It's my job to keep those numbers hidden and just show the usable, trustworthy results. She had seen something not meant as a final product and without any background in meteorology latched onto it.

That's the problem with the track line. Yes, it's in the center, but to dwell on it implies more accuracy than we really have.

Blogger's note: I continue to display 'live' links to the latest hurricane info on the right side of this page. It's a neat feed from the Hurricane Center which I update about 100 times a day.

Steffie got an Ipod Mini, the beautifully designed Apple portable music player. In order to get it to work (and we still haven't really figured out what to do on her Windows 98SE computer) I had to register the software.

The instruction said, enter your serial number, it's on the back of the Ipod. You look¹! Are they nuts. Even my 17 year old daughter had trouble reading this. I finally put on magnifying goggles. Even then it was a strain.

Would readable type have ruined the effect?

¹ - I have placed the dime in the shot for size comparison.

The names used for hurricanes are on a rotation. Every seven years the names repeat. There is, however, one exception. When a storm becomes 'notorious,' it is retired. That's where Frances is headed.

As of this evening it was about twice the size and significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew was at this stage of the game. That's not to say Frances will be another Andrew - but there is that potential.

A few weeks ago while watching Hurricane Charley, I remarked about the steady stream of data available. There is less from Frances because of its track. As far as I know there are no weather radars available on the Internet from Haiti, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos or The Bahamas. There are also few, or no, surface observations nearby.

The information is a little more abstract. It needs to be analyzed more carefully and digested. It is not self evident, like looking at Charley on the Key West radar.

There are weather buoys, drifting in Frances' vicinity. There are also sporadic readings from hurricane hunter planes. And, of course, there is satellite imagery (though the highest resolution images are only available during daylight hours). These are good, but more would be better.

Hour by hour, computer run by computer run, Frances' destination seems to be locking in on the Florida East Coast. If I had to venture a guess today, I'd say what I said yesterday - somewhere around Jupiter or Hobe Sound.

That's no guarantee. No place from Homestead to Savannah would surprise me.

If I were anywhere in Florida tonight, I'd be making sure I was prepared. Even with Frances' strength, most people inland will be forced to weather the storm in their homes. On the coast it will be a totally different story.

Wherever Frances lands, communication will stop. TV and telephone will be limited. Power will be spotty. In some communities, power will be shut off before the storm as a safety precaution.

Most people who live in South Florida have never felt the impact of any direct hurricane hit - much less a category 4 storm. It will be a sobering experience.

My parents live down there, in Palm Beach County. Of course, I worry for them. Their condo has storm shutters and is reasonably well built. The thing it has most going for it is its inland location. I won't give them specific advice until we get closer.

My friend Wendie lives in the Miami area. Her office and home are close to the Intracoastal Waterway. That is more worrisome.

In a few of the later computer models, Hurricane Frances slows down while approaching the Florida coast. That could mean an extended period of torrential rain and very strong, damaging wind (possibly not hurricane strength if the storm is far enough off shore).

The are really no good scenarios left.

I left home around 3:00 PM and headed toward work. It was a beautiful day - the sky really was blue, the clouds were puffy, the humidity low. The top was down and I was enjoying the road.

A few minutes from my house, driving down a winding, hilly, narrow road (which now gets a whole lot more traffic than it was ever designed for) I saw a man standing at the edge of the road. He wore a plastic poncho type raincoat and carried a small trash bag half filed with golf balls. In the same hand he held a metal rod.

I'd later see it was a file. When I first saw it I thought it might be a knife.

The man looked to be in his 70s, He wore a mustache, but was otherwise clean shaven. He didn't seem to realize where he was standing, on the road's shoulder, was a dangerous spot.

As I approached, he held up his hands as if to ask for assistance.

I'm sure I shouldn't have done what I did - especially with the vulnerability of having my top down - but I slowed to listen to him and then stopped. His words made sense, but when put together I wasn't sure what he was getting at.

I pulled my car into a driveway across the street and got out. The man came over and continued to talk. As far as I could see, he was lost. He didn't know where he was nor where he was going. I assume he didn't know how he got there either.

I made the decision not to ask anything that might frustrate him, because I could see he was confused... and probably becoming more confused by his own confusion. Something was wrong and he could sense it, but he couldn't really ask the right questions to flesh out his own problem.

The strangest part is, most of my conversation with him was fine. If he wasn't lost and wandering, there would be no way to see or know something was wrong. Yet, it was obvious, as we spoke, something was terribly wrong.

I picked up my cellphone and called the police. This was more than I could handle.

It didn't take five minutes before a patrol car pulled up. I knew the officer and told him what had gone on. He asked the man to get in the car so he could be taken home.

I continued my trip to work.

Later this afternoon, Helaine asked me to call the police department to find out how this ended. The dispatcher looked through his notes and said everything was now fine. And then he offered up how it sounded like Alzheimer's to him.

So often we have stories on the air about people 'wandering off.' It never really made much sense to me. How does an adult just wander off? Now I have a better understanding.

In a way it is ironic to think the only person not worrying about what was going on was probably this man at the edge of the road with a bag of golf balls and a file.

There is one thing that has been established beyond the shadow of a doubt this week. Everyone has a connection to Florida. Whether it's a friend or relative, someone living there or just visiting, we all have an equity stake in Florida.

Wherever I go people ask me about Hurricane Frances. We've all seen what happened on the West Coast of Florida, and this storm promises to be stronger. It's no surprise that it scares the daylights out of normally unflappable people

Today, for the first time, the computer guidance is beginning to agree. I've been pointing to Jupiter/Hobe Sound and the official pronouncements aren't far off that mark. Of course the hurricane actually has to perform as forecast... to 'verify' in the vernacular of meteorologists, which is never guaranteed.

A few things struck me this evening.

On-the-air, we played an ABC report which included an interview with, what I suspect, a government official in the Bahamas. He complained that maybe they had underestimated the storm.

What planet is he on? The predictions for the Bahamas couldn't have been more dire if we had said a fiery meteor was plunging their way! The Hurricane Center, which cooperates with the government of the Bahamas in hurricane prediction, went out of its way to scare the crap out of Bahamians - and for good reason.

Unfortunately, areas with a lot of tourism often underplay warnings and later downplay damage. It's not good for business. Not many people are going to want to go to San Salvador Island after today's report of 120 mph sustained winds. Nassau might get a close scare. Freeport could get a direct hit.

I really miss having radar that sees Frances at this stage. Tonight the satellite imagery started showing some 'weakness' on the hurricane's western flank. I commented to my friend Bob that I thought the storm would be downgraded... and it was at 11:00 PM¹. Now Frances is Category 3.

It's funny, but when satellite imagery begins to show a change, it doesn't strike me as soon as the image actually comes in. It usually takes a while, staring at the satellite loop, before the trend takes hold. This is most frustrating, especially during winter storms, when I go on the air then look at the same data after my weathercast and begin to question impending changes.

The fact that Frances is weaker tonight doesn't mean too much of anything. Storms naturally get weaker and stronger in response to their immediate environment. There are guesses why it happened, but no one knows. Hurricane experts are baffled by unknown forces all the time. And, for some unknown reason, hurricanes only have a finite amount of time they can spend as major storms. Again, no one knows why nature works this way.

Since all of weather is guided by the laws of physics, we should understand all the forces at work. We do not.

The official forecast is for Hurricane Frances to regain strength in its final march over open water to Florida. The Hurricane Center's number for Saturday at 8:00 AM EDT is 140 mph, equaling Hurricane Frances strongest point.

It really doesn't matter. The difference between 125 mph and 140 mph isn't all that much in the general scheme of things. Even a minimal hurricane will cause significant damage.

More than the wind, I am worried about Frances losing her steering currents and wandering aimlessly, or at a very slow speed, in the warm Atlantic waters between the Bahamas and Florida. An extended period adjacent to land might be worse than a quick, but direct, hit. There will be that much more time for flooding and tornadoes and wind. The forecast will become exponentially more difficult (and less accurate). There will be that much more terror.

¹ - I have no idea how this happened, but the Hurricane Center issued its 11:00 PM bulletin with the wrong wind speed! Frances was called Category 4, though it had been downgraded to Category 3. You would think something like this would be vetted.

I just read the Hurricane Center's technical discussion on Frances:

Let's read between the lines.

Frances is already less than 115 mph and they're worried it is going to get weaker. On the other hand, they... all of us who forecast weather actually... remember Andrew, and more recently Charley. These are storms that responded rapidly to their outside environments and hit land stronger than anticipated.

I think I mentioned last night that hurricane forecasting is attempted even though we don't understand all the factors, or even which factors we're leaving out. Hurricane track forecasting is bad - intensity forecasting is awful.

That's not an insult to those who do the forecasting. It's just a fact. And, at the moment, I don't see any breakthroughs in hurricane forecasting on the horizon.

Here's where the pact with the Devil comes in.

If Frances hits Florida, and it's a wimp, then lives are saved. But then no one will listen when the next one comes... and the next one could be Andrew or Charley or the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

On the other hand, if your forecast verifies and it's 115 mph coming in, people will be hurt (you hope the warnings have been heeded and no one's killed), property will be destroyed, lives displaced.

Wishing won't change things. Still, what do you wish for?

Check out the observer's comments from the latest West Palm Beach weather observation:

So, it looks like the last plane has already left PBI.

All afternoon, every time I pointed to the hurricane tracking map, I mentioned how I disagreed with the Hurricane Center's assessment of top wind speed and forward motion. Friends from within NHC have told me there are many masters to answer to, and sometimes the forecast has political overtones. This is more intramural governmental politics - not Republican/Democratic politics.

Tonight, at the 8:00 PM update they went with numbers more to my liking (as if they care what I think). Hurricane Frances has become a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 105 mph.

A few minutes ago I was speaking with a reporter heading toward the storm. Yes, it's less strong. But don't compare the 105 mph with 140 mph. Compare the 105 mph with calm!

With this very slow forward motion and 30° Celsius water (about 86°) between the Bahamas and Florida it might still intensify.

New York is different that the rest of the United States. I can't imagine there is a part of country where a higher percentage of the population lives in apartments. And, because of New York City's rent control and stabilization laws, many people stay in those apartments forever.

My parents lived at 6543 Parsons Boulevard, Apartment 5E, from the early 50s to the late 80s. Our next door neighbors are still in the building, having moved in in 1953.

I'm not sure how long Uncle Murray has lived in his apartment, but it has to go back to the early 50s as well.

Before cable they had the worst TV reception I had ever seen. I remember trying to watch baseball games with my dad, Uncle Murray, Cousin Michael and some other family members. Every time a plane approached La Guardia Airport, the signal would go nuts. I seem to remember the TV sporting rabbit ears with tin foil for good measure - as if you could fool the signal into being watchable.

This from an apartment with a line-of-sight view to the Empire State Building where the TV transmitting antennas used to be... and are again, since 9/11.

The apartment is on the ground floor, facing out onto a busy street. It is in Queens, a short walk from the Flushing el, so not far from Manhattan by public transportation.

In that apartment you are never far from the noise of the neighborhood. If a car alarm goes off - if the bus goes by - if a horn is honked (and all of those seem to happen continuously) - you will witness it from inside the apartment, even with the windows closed.

But it is quiet in comparison to my grandparents' 23rd floor apartment in Brighton Beach, Brooklyn. From their windows they could see two elevated trains lines and the biggest yard in the New York City Subway system. The building was right at a curve which caused the heavy metal wheels on the train to squeal a little around the clock. It squealed as each set of wheels in the 8 or 10 car trains passed by.

I have been told Uncle Murray is leaving his apartment, moving closer to my Cousin Judy and her family in Maryland. It will be good for Murray to be closer to people who love him.

It will be the end of an era, as the last of the Fox family leaves New York City.

Uncle Murray will also end another, more universal, era. He is the last person I know whose telephone number is still remembered as a word and 5 digits. Uncle Murray is the last of the TWining-8's for me.

Until he closed his store, it was the only other number I remembered non-digitally. That was STillwell-6 (I think).

When I was growing up, our home number was JAmacia-6-4308 and then AXtel-1-9790. At some point, the phone companies of America decided that wouldn't do. I remember hearing some sort of propaganda about how all digit dialing would be easier to remember. I don't think they were running out of numbers because you can make an exchange combination out of every number combo... though you'd need to use XYlophone for '99.'

Later, AXtel-1-9790 became 291-9790 and then got changed to 591-0434 when we get our first area code - 212.

I never quite understood why there were exchanges like AXtel. What is an AXtel? Even Google asks, "Did you mean: axtell ?" '291' could have been AWning-1 or AWful-1 or CYrus-1.

New York Telephone made some bad choices other than AXtel. On Staten Island there was an exchange, Saint George. Was that SA or ST?

Today, I know my number should be CEntral... though it's a '23.'

Back to Uncle Murray.

I can't imagine how he'll pick up and pack fifty years worth of memories? What will be found that had been lost? What will be found that should have been lost? Does he still have the Playboy Magazines I found under his bed forty some odd years ago?

I'll have to call Uncle Murray this weekend. I want one last chance to dial that number.

One last look... one final peek at the computer guidance before bedtime. It is troubling.

The gfdl is continuing to call for the track of Hurricane Frances to move just north of West Palm Beach and then over Lake Okeechobee, through the center of the state, and into the Gulf of Mexico via Tampa Bay. This is well south of the official Hurricane Center forecast.

The cross state portion of the trip should take nearly 24 hours. Even that number doesn't take into account all the hours of tumult, just the hours the eye is over land.

Miami radar is continuing to show the eye over the Bahamas. It still doesn't look like it's moving to me. That's a bad sign. Slow moving storms mean more rain. If the storm is capable of 2-3" of rain per hour, the enemy becomes time. More hours equal more rain.

On this radar screen¹ the eye should look like the hole on the end of a drinking straw. Instead it looks like a manhole cover - huge.

That eye would really have to shrink... and quickly... for the storm to intensify. The gfdl thinks it will. There is plenty of warm, open water west of its current position. I won't even venture a guess. I think this storm is beginning to become very unpredictable.

The gfdl anticipate landfall for the eye late Saturday evening. I wouldn't be surprised to see it still offshore Sunday at daybreak.

Moving slowly like this hurricane Frances doesn't have to be a Category 3 or 4 storm to do real damage. It will wear its opponents down over time.

¹ - The link is 'live', meaning clicking gets you the latest view which is not necessarily going to resemble what I'm seeing at 3:43 AM EDT.

For the past hour, or so, I have been watching, and listening, to hurricane coverage on my computer. WFOR, the CBS station in Miami is streaming a very watchable picture. I am impressed.

This is something I touched on a few weeks ago when ABC announced their World News Now Internet service. This definitely has the potential to compete with over-the-air television. It also presents a real opportunity for Internet broadcasting now.

This is something I'll get into into in more detail later.

There was some thought of visiting my friend Paul in New York this weekend, but when that didn't work out, I asked Helaine and Steffie what they wanted to do. Mall.

Hey, I asked.

My friend Peter Mokover (gratuitous mention) summarized it properly on the phone. "Girl's stores." He's right, that's what malls are all about.

In many ways this is similar to gifts given to couples. Yes, it's for them... but it's really for her.

We headed out to West Farms Mall, about 45 minutes from here. First stop was Dunkin' Donuts. I picked up a cup of coffee and the spied something new in the baked goods rack - Low Carb Bagels.

Low Carb Bagels! How is that possible? Is there anything less friendly to carb counters than a bagel.

I bought the bagel.

Before I left the counter I asked if there was any information on this bagel? Was it 10% lower, 20%, 80%? The woman serving me didn't know. Later I went to the Dunkin' Donuts website. No info there either.

The bagel was fine. It seemed to be coated with cheese. I'm really not sure. I just wish I could find out what it is.

We went to the mall. Peter's right - girl's stores.

I spent some time at the bookstore, Radio Shack and The Discovery Channel Store, but there's nothing as compelling to me as Abercrombie and Fitch is to Steffie. I also made 3-4 calls to my parents in Boynton Beach. Hurricane Frances has them trapped inside. They're comfortable, well fed and with friends, but without TV, computer, air conditioning or electricity.

Before we left, we had dinner at the Rainforest Cafe. Wow. I have never seen a business built so much on merchandising. Even the menus had warnings about taking them, because they were for sale in the store... which you walk through to go inside.

My burger was good and the three of us split a "Volcano."

Here's the bottom line. It was really nice to spend the day with my family. It is a pleasure we don't have all the time and I savor it.

I have spent a good part of this late evening playing poker and watching coverage on Hurricane Frances. Frances did come on shore, not far from Stuart, early Sunday morning.

This storm has been poorly forecast for the last few days.

Listen, I make forecast mistakes all the time - I am not claiming perfection by any means. On the other hand, I have seen a number of calls from the Hurricane Center which seemed to discard what was actually happening at the time. I have thrown up my hands in wonderment.

It's really tough to take when there is a large staff of meteorologists consulting on each forecast, as there is at the Hurricane Center.

There is nothing else I want to see on television. Yet even with wall-to-wall coverage on cable news, and the ability to watch Channel 10 from Miami on our HD channel, there is too much filler and too little meat.

If anyone does get props, it would have to be CNN. They have done the best job from what I've seen. And, as much as I dislike the idea of reporters in the middle of weather that no one should be in, John Zarella has been excellent, as has their meteorologist, Rob Marciano.

The problem, of course, is at most times it's impossible to get reports from the areas where the weather is the worst. You can't transmit to satellites when the rain is heavy. You also can't put the dish up to transmit when the wind is strong enough to rip it off the truck!

I believe this is more hurricane coverage than has ever been available. With the build-up to Frances, and the pictures from Charley, it was inevitable.

Frances is not the strongest hurricane, but its duration will be what's remembered. There won't be the destruction of homes that there was with Charley, but there will be lots of beach erosion and the kind of damage that happens when structures submit - as opposed to being instantaneously destroyed.

I will be curious to see the damage near Lake Okeechobee. It is my guess that structures aren't quite as substantial, both because of its distance from the coast and the income of its inhabitants. Even with less wind, they will be creamed.

If this is a moderate hurricane, who would ever want to 'weather out' a strong one?

Among the little goodies I have on this website (and really never mention or link to) is Weather Plotter. Every hour, 24/7, this program goes out and gets the current conditions from all the official reporting spots in Connecticut and other areas of interest to me.

Weather Plotter does just what its name implies. To website visitors, it's pretty versatile. You can set the time span and parameter you want plotted.

Since West Palm Beach is one of the cities I archive data for, it is possible to plot the barometric pressure over the last few days and see Hurricane Frances. A hurricane is an area of very low pressure and Frances shows in the plot.

What's even more impressive is to see the hurricane in the context of a month.

I just spoke with my mom in Florida. She told me about all the trees down, especially one very special tree. In this tree, along a still pond, lived a large family of egrets. This is very sad.

Among my favorite entries in the blog was one about these birds and their way of life.

Hopefully, they will find another place to live, near my parents. Even so, I will miss them and that amazing tree.

I read an article about DVRs, Digital Video Recorders, in the New York Times this weekend. Like most of the New York radio and television stations and the major news networks, I get many of my best ideas from the Times. Unlike them, I admit it.

The article, like so many on this subject, talked about how DVRs are. I have one and I do enjoy it. Unfortunately, I am nowhere near the TV nirvana experienced by the writers I've read.

The concept behind TiVo, Replay TV and the others is pretty simple. Record everything on a hard drive instead of tape, and use computer technology to make it easier, yet more powerful than an old school VCR.

The problem is, all DVRs are not created equal. I think mine, A Scientific Atlanta Explorer 8000 that I rent from Comcast¹, is somewhere near the bottom. This is not the device people are clamoring for, though it is marketed in the same way.

I often hear about how TiVo will 'learn' about what you watch and then record programs based on your likes. This SA box doesn't do that. It is the featured I would most like to see.

The menu system within this DVR is disjointed, non-intuitive and difficult to learn. I have programmed recordings based on time, but I couldn't tell you how... and would have to hit a bunch of dead ends before I did it again.

Recording scheduled programs is easier, but still not simple. The program guide is two clicks of two separate buttons away. Why? Isn't this the most used feature? It should be directly accessible.

Working back ward through the guide is nearly impossible. Going backward in time through midnight just doesn't work.

The guide itself is sorely lacking. Movies and programs on some channels don't show. Channels that I don't subscribe to do show, adding an extra layer I have to move through before setting the recorder. The text information describing the programs is sparse.

In using the video-on-demand features, the same function on different menus uses a different keystroke! That violates one of the most basic rules of user interface design.

Possibly the most frustrating problem is the propensity of the 8000 to accept a key press from the remote control, but do nothing for a few seconds. Most likely during that time you have decided the machine didn't get the first press and have pressed again. Now you have screwed up whatever you were attempting.

If Comcast or Scientific Atlanta asked, I'd tell them. I did once send a note to SA, using a form on their website. I never received a reply.

¹ - As part of my retirement account I have Comcast stock. So, I am not a disinterested party here. However, since I'm talking down their product, you can see that hasn't affected me.

No sooner did Hurricane Frances start fading that there's another threat to look at, Ivan. Actually Hurricane Ivan has been a topic of interest since late last week, but because it was so far from land and Frances was such a problem, we let it build in relative anonymity.

Now it can get more attention. Here's a snippet from the Hurricane Center's 11:00 PM EDT Technical Discussion:

Give up? As always, the technical discussion is written... well, it's written technically.

Bottom line is, all the tools that hurricane forecasters use say this storm is a slam dunk to intensify... and it's already Category 4. 130 kt translates to about 150 mph. Wow!

The Hurricane Center wins no prizes for Frances' forecast. I wonder how they'll do with this one?

It is coming from an extreme southern latitude. It was the strongest Atlantic system ever recorded that close to the Equator. Will the computer models be able to understand the dynamics of the storm when it doesn't fit the mold? Will the Hurricane Center staff feel 'snake bit' as they decide what words to use and numbers to post?

Stay tuned.

Blogger's note: My daughter tells me, whenever she sees boxed text (as we have above) it serves as a red flag signifying whatever follows will be extremely boring. Hey - I'm thrilled she reads it at all!

This week, people all over Florida will be reminded why the state was sparsely populated until the 50s - it's really hot and humid.

I spoke to my folks this afternoon. They have phone service, but no electricity. As far as they can tell there is no electricity at all in Boynton Beach. Their condo has begun to steam up and they spent much of today out of doors.

Undoubtedly, there are more people with phone service than working phones. What I mean is, in many places the phone lines work, but cordless phone base units need power from the wall! If those people would only plug in an old fashioned phone, they'd be back in touch.

In my folks' kitchen, whatever is left in the freezer has melted enough to send rivulets of water down the outside of their refrigerator. I told my mom to just open it up and empty it out, because anything left is now unfit for human consumption.

Back in the very late 60s I lived in Lake Worth, Florida without air conditioning. You get used to anything, I suppose. But, looking back, it was brutal. I wish my folks wouldn't have to undergo that same experience.

There's no timetable for getting their power back on, though I hope the average age of the residents will spark the electric company to go to extra human efforts.

I called my mom from the car on the way back to work from dinner. The power has returned after 4 days and 3 nights. She's cleaning out the 'fridge - everything's spoiled.

I like writing in my blog. Hopefully, that's obvious. Whether anyone reads it or not, it's an opportunity to vent and reflect. There are, unfortunately, far too few places to do either.

A side benefit of having a blog is the web presence it gives me. Do a Google search for Geoff Fox and you'll find me first, even though there are other Geoff Foxes - most more accomplished than I am.

Once you've found the website, getting in touch with me by email is simple. From time-to-time I get a note from someone I knew a long time ago who stumbled across this site. One came in tonight.

Actually, I'm lucky I found the note from Dave Kulka, because it was in my spam box, snuggled between herbal Viagra and mortgage offers¹.

He's David now, but I first met Dave Kulka in person in August 1968. We had met through correspondence and a mutual hobby, broadcast band DX'ing², months earlier.

I had just turned 18. Dave was a few years younger. We planned on meeting for the National Radio Club convention in Los Angeles, visiting another radio nerd in Riverside, CA and spending some time at Dave's house in Marin County, just outside San Fransisco.

This was my first time away from home by myself. I was flying cross country to meet a stranger. Who knew what he'd be like?

At 18, I was naive. There was never a question of fear or worry. I remember getting some incredible 1/2 price youth fare on TWA and flying from Kennedy Airport to Los Angeles.

There's not a lot I remember, though a few individual events stand out.

The convention was held in an older, somewhat worn, hotel in Hollywood. I believe it was the Roosevelt, but I might be wrong. Within an hour of being in LA and checking into the hotel, I got myself arrested for jaywalking at Hollywood and Cahuenga! I think Dave got pinched too.

When we went to the desert in Riverside, it was as foreign a place as I'd ever been. I remember how bare the ground was, and how we were fairly close to a bluff which overlooked Riverside Airport. I went there a few times to watch the Hughes Air West Fairchild F-27's takeoff and land

One day while we were in the house in Riverside, everything began to shake. I could hear plates and glasses rattling. Earthquake! It scared the living daylights out of me... though Dave and the home's owner, Don, made like it was nothing. To this day, it's my one and only earthquake.

Spending time in Marin County was also an eye opening experience. Dave and his family lived in a beautiful home on the side of a hill. There was a deck which ran from the side to the back. His parents cars were parked on the narrow road in front of the house. Their auto registration was somehow affixed to the steering post. Having grown up in apartment 5E, this was all culture shock.

I remember Dave's mom. I couldn't pick her out of a crowd today, but I remember thinking she was pretty and young for the mom of a contemporary. Mostly I remember her during the days of the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago.

This was the convention where Mayor Daley attempted to quash the dissent of the anti-war movement. There were riots in Chicago during the convention. It was all televised live.

Dave's mom cried. It was a soft, emotional cry. Over 35 years later, that moment is strong in my mind. I remember her standing there, turned 3/4 away from the TV, in an emotional state because of something going on half a country away.

I didn't understand the significance of what was going on at the time. Dave didn't either. But her emotion from that night is still strong in my mind.

Dave's uncle, Leo deGar Kulka, was the proprietor of a well known recording studio in San Fransisco. We spent a lot of time there, though I never met Uncle Leo.

Like I said, Dave could have been a weirdo - who knew? I was going out there on blind faith. But, he turned out to be a nice guy, and it was a trip which still stands out in my mind.

Tonight, on my way home from work, I called him and we spoke for a while. He has had an amazing life, traveling through much of Asia. These were not tourist jaunts to capitols, but trips through the countryside - places where Anglos are oddities. That kind of world traveling is one thing I've wanted to, but never will, do.

He sounds bright, self assured and content. On the phone I told him he sounded happy with his life, but I think content is a much more fitting word.

Dave's in Burbank, in the San Fernando Valley, designing and installing recording studios. He is married with no children.

We get out there every once in a while. Next time, I'll have to see him. How much could he have changed in 36 years?

¹ - I always hope I find all the non-spam in my spam box, but, as good as popfile is, I am never sure. The downside to having a website like this is the amazing amount of spam I receive - hundreds of pieces every day.

² - Broadcast band DXing is a hobby where you try and listen to distant, often foreign, broadcast stations on the regular AM dial. Using sophisticated, incredibly nerdy equipment, I was able to hear Europe, Hawaii, even Africa on an AM radio from the East Coast. I haven't been involved in years, but still know the calls of most of the dominant clear channel stations and many of the strong regionals.

I have heard lot of talk about Gmail, the new mail service from Google. It certainly has forced the other free mail providers to expand the storage space they offer. Gmail itself offers 1 gb of storage, an unheard of amount.

The advantage of Gmail is, it treats your email like Google treats the rest of the Internet. Searching capabilities are very strong and very quick.

Still, for me with a 'vanity' address it's just not appealing, except under one circumstance. Gmail has become my address when I need to fill out forms. So, I let the Gmail account deal with the additional spam that comes when I register for something online.

Since Gmail is still in beta, it isn't freely available. The way they get new users is by giving invitations to current users, like me. I now have 6. If you'd like a free Gmail account, drop me a line. As long as I still have one, it's yours.

This season, we have all been sensitized to hurricanes. Between Charley and Frances, we have had more than enough tsuris¹ for one year. Now there is Ivan.

Because of my job, I follow hurricanes a little more actively than most. This is a very active year. Activity doesn't always translate into damage, as some storms stay offshore. Obviously, this year the strongest storms have made landfall.

Ivan is so unusual because of its position. Right now there are hurricane warnings for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and much of the northern coast of South America. That's not unheard of - but it is out of the ordinary, especially with a storm of this strength so far south.

The Hurricane Center is, again, sending mixed signals on what this storm is right now. Their message over the longer term is bleak. Winds are forecast to approach 150 mph sustained as the center of the forecast path moves directly over Jamaica.

I am, again, worried for Florida. At the moment, the center of the path is close, but not over Florida. Still it is in the cone of uncertainty.

One more storm will be devastating to people who are already reeling. I could hear what was going on with my parents, and they were affected much less than many.

Over the long run, how will this affect Florida? Are there minds being made up this week by people who would have vacationed there, would have retired there, and now will not?

¹ - tsuris - noun : (Yiddish) aggravating trouble

Back when I was a student at Harold G. Campbell Junior High School (aka JHS 218Q in Flushing, Queens) I took French. We learned using new multimedia course from ALM, often sitting in little booths with headphones. This was the early sixties mind you, multimedia was a word waiting to be invented.

My teacher was Mme. Elaine Gobstein. Mme Gobstein had the unenviable task of trying to motivate my classmates and me into learning French. I freely admit I was less easily motivated than most.

I floated through the first marking period, getting a courtesy passing grade, though I was doing failing work. I kept up the pace into the next report card, this time getting the failing grade I so rightly deserved. It was my first time failing a subject and I was crushed.

I'm not sure who initiated the conversation between Mme Gobstein and me, but we had one. She told me the only way I'd be able to pass was by participating every day and doing well on the final.

So, I did.

I had my hand up for every bit of classroom participation. I'm sure I was a pain in the ass, but I did what she asked. And, when the final came around, I got an incredible mark (considering). My mother remembers it to be in the 90s. I think it was in the high 80s. It makes no difference now, over 40 years later, but when my report card came... I had flunked.

As strange as it may seem, my mother and I have talked about this more than once over the past few years. She says in today's environment she would have gone to school and pleaded my case. Back then, you accepted the teacher's decision and my 55 stood... and is probably buried somewhere in the NYC Board of Education archives on a faded Delaney card.

It's possible Mme. Gobstein thought I had cheated. I had not. Maybe she didn't think my spurt in the last grading period overcame my earlier work? No sense asking. After hundreds, maybe thousands of students and four decades gone by, she can't be expected to remember.

It doesn't really matter, except I thought she had made an offer and I had delivered my end of the bargain.

Like I said, it's over 40 years later. I harbor no ill will toward Mme. Gobstein, who was probably a good teacher with a recalcitrant student. Still, even now it hurts.

So, what brings this up? Well, I'm rounding the home stretch at Mississippi State University and taking quizzes and tests on a regular basis. From time-to-time there's a grade I disagree with - but now I make my case.

The latest came today with a test in Synoptic Meteorology II. I was pleased to have gotten 100%... except when the result came, it was an 80%.

If I was back in Mme. Gobstein's class during the first marking period, I'd have written it off. But now I had vetted all my answers. The problem is the questions!

I know that sounds strange, but here's what I've found out about multiple choice tests (and that's what these are): They are more difficult for a professor to write than questions for a test answered in sentences or essays. The instructor has to be very diligent, making sure he doesn't inadvertently say the wrong thing - making an answer correct only if it is not read thoroughly.

In fact, the more you know - the harder you study - the easier it is to find fault in the questions.

My concerns today had to do with a formula which didn't exactly match the one in the text and a the interpretation of a sentence.

Will the instructor show me mercy? Who knows. These two answers amount to less than .25% of my final grade. Still, as I learned in Junior High, letting it slide too long is definitely the wrong move.

Quelle dommage.

The Hurricane Center has just upped Hurricane Ivan to a Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph with higher gusts! That means winds with 2.5 times the force of Frances at landfall and four times the potential to cause damage.

Tonight, my friend Bob and I were chatting about hurricanes. We realized, as bad as this season is, deaths have been low. This is 100% attributable to satellite technology. In fact, Bob suggested whoever 'invented' weather satellites deserved a Nobel prize for that alone!

I worry about the people on Jamaica. This storm is steaming right toward them and there's really nowhere to hide.

Not only will the wind be destructive, but Jamaica has topography which will bring out the worst in a hurricane.

Seven thousand foot mountains will surely wring more than the Hurricane Center's estimate of 5-7" of rain. A direct, or even near, hit will mean catastrophic mudslides and flooding.

This storm is not done yet.

Over the past few months my web traffic has grown like crazy. In the last few weeks it's doubled. Unfortunately, I think I know why - a disappointing reason.

Someone in Finland inserted a graphic from my website into his. This is not the same as simple linking, in that he used my photo without credit, and had my server send it to his users! So, my traffic was up, but no one consuming that extra traffic actually came to my site or even knew they were looking at a picture from here.

It would be similar to your neighbor running his lights off your meter.

After I found the Finnish site, I found a few others. I have cut them off and now expect my counters to register a whole lot fewer hits... I think.

Too bad. I liked the mistaken thought that I'd become a popular web stop.

I spoke with my parents and my friend Wendie today and I heard the same thing from all of them - apprehension. With Hurricane Ivan threatening Jamaica, and the projected path aiming somewhere near Florida, they're worried.

In the abstract, Hurricane Frances loomed as an adventure. In reality, it was a lot tougher to take - and they didn't get a direct hit. It is tough under those circumstances not to think about the worst case scenario.

I made the offer again to my folks to come up here to Connecticut for a while. They begged off. No one wants to be driven from their home.

I hope, as is often the case, Ivan changes course and spares Florida. Unfortunately, you can't will the forecast to happen.

Back in July 1996, I flew through the eye of Hurricane Bertha. I wrote about it then, but it's been mostly forgotten. I thought this might be a good time to repost it here:

The most common question I've been asked the past two days is, "Why would you ever fly into the eye of a hurricane?" Fair question.

First of all, I have convinced myself that it isn't dangerous. Think about it. Career government employees. Not exactly a prescription for risk takers. The plane, a 31 year old Lockheed C-130 Hercules, seems incredibly sturdy and is as stylish as a UPS truck.

Second, it sounded like a great story. Interesting, informative, maybe even a little exciting.

Any time there's a tropical system worth investigating, the Air Force flies to a forward base and sets up shop. The idea is to have two planes with almost continuous penetrations of the eye. This week, the 53rd Weather Recon Squadron USAF (reserve) was at Homestead AFB in Florida. It's an eerie starting point, considering wreckage from Hurricane Andrew still litters the base and surrounding town.

Flight time to Bertha would be about 2 hours and we'd be in the air for anywhere from 10 to 12 hours. That meant 69,000 pounds of fuel in the wings, under the wings, and in a 10,000 pound tank adjacent to the port-a-john in the 'cabin'. And enough noise from the four prop engines to force everyone to wear earplugs or earphones.

Being on the ground during a major hurricane will change you. They're not surprises like tornadoes or earthquakes, yet they cause damage that's often more widespread and impossible to prevent. And there's the paradox of the eye, an area where the strongest and weakest winds are amazingly close. A hurricane's eye passing overhead is so enticing that people have been known to leave shelters only to be 'zapped' as the storm started up again.

Leaving Homestead, we flew directly toward the storm. Miami Center didn't need to vector us - we weren't going to run into much company. Not many people do this as a hobby. At 20,000 feet the ride was smooth.

A little over 100 miles out, we descended to 10,000 feet and started taking readings. Temperature, dew point, barometer, wind speed and direction. The sea surface below had enough whitecaps and spray to show the wind direction, even at altitude. Intermittently there were patches of green. The Air Force manual carried by just about everyone on board said that that was an indication of winds over 40 knots. The clouds thickened. There was rain, hitting the windshield at almost 300 mph. My photographer, J.P. Coleman, and I made our way up the stairs onto the flight deck.

My commercial flight to Florida had two in the cockpit. This flight had five, and they all seemed to be working. I started to interview the pilot, a Lt. Colonel, until he stopped for a radio call and then a checklist. The radar, mounted on the plane's dash, about where the radar detector is on my car's dash, started showing a somewhat circular green area. This was Bertha.

The blip moved closer to the radar's center as we approached. I started thinking about the turbulence. How the plane would pitch and roll. How my stomach would trick me into thinking I was about to die, when I was only going to throw up. There are hand holds in the cockpit and I grabbed one, but a funny thing happened. Nothing!

All right, not quite nothing but close. We shook for ten, maybe twelve seconds before settling back to smooth flight.

As it turns out, Bertha was "Big" Bertha because of size, not strength. The eye was not round, but oval. It had more holes than Albert Hall (If you understand this, Ann B. Davis is Schultzy, if you don't she's Alice).

The eye was where the real work would be done. In the back, a Master Sergeant prepared a cylindrical instrument pod called a radiosonde. He watched the wind speed at altitude. From 70 to 50 to 30 knots. And then to single digits. As the wind dipped he typed "launch" on a keyboard and the radiosonde slipped out the tube. We knew from the rate of descent that its parachute had opened. It was transmitting back to the plane while falling at about 1,000 feet per minute. As soon as we got the numbers, they were satellited to the Hurricane Center and relayed to the National Weather Service data feeds. All of a sudden, anyone with a computer could get the results of Bertha's physical.

These numbers are still the absolutely best way to fix the hurricane's location and estimate her strength. Lower pressure, higher temperature, bigger storm. There is currently no better way to know this than by penetrating in a plane.

And that's the way the day went. Ten and a half hours in the air with hardly a bump. We flew 100 plus mile legs in a bowtie shaped pattern, passing through the eyewall four times.

So, what did I get out of it? Well, two live phoners, from the flight deck, at 6 and 11. The airchecks are nowhere to be found, but I'm told it sounded exotic and dangerous. That's probably because we went from the plane to the ground via single sideband shortwave radio and had to say, "over" all the time. Today (July 11) , we aired two separate packages at 6 and 11. And, I've gotten a little more insight into the data I use from the National Hurricane Center.

I'd do it again

When I was a teenager in high school I knew what I wanted to do when I grew up - I wanted to be a disk jockey. And sure enough, when I got myself tossed from college (or the 'accelerated dismissal program' as I like to call it), radio is where I went.

It was a reasonably good career working at some of the classic stations of the AM radio era, being program director of what was known as an 'underground station,' and doing mornings in Philadelphia. I miss it all the time. Any time I run into a radio person here in Connecticut I offer to do some fill-in work.

They smile, but seldom call. I've done a few talk shows on WTIC and it was like a fix to an addict.

Today I had the opportunity to be on the radio and in a situation I had never experienced before. I was one of three guests on a Sunday morning public affairs show which was taped for Star 99.9 and WPLR.

This all has to do with my involvement in the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation. I have been their celebrity spokesperson for 11 years - though I'm not sure what that job actually entails. JDRF is a wonderful organization. I feel touched every time I do something on their behalf. And, their Walk to Cure is coming up in early October.

The program was taped at the Cox Broadcasting studios in Milford. It was the most corporate radio facility I had ever been in. Everything was neat and clean. The equipment looked like it was all working. There were no slovenly disk jockeys yelling at the top of their voices!

It seemed too sterile to really be radio.

The station's lunch room seemed sanitary, as if you could eat there. How is this possibly radio? Certainly it is not radio as I knew it, where your clothing choices were always promotional t-shirts and jeans.

Every time I write about it, I wonder why I miss radio so much... and when I'll be back on?

I can only imagine what it's like to be on Jamaica tonight. Observations from the airport stopped hours ago, but the Hurricane Center has upped the wind estimate on Ivan to 150 mph.

This will be a devastating night for Jamaicans.

I have been living this nightmare in my mind for the past two days. Once it became obvious where Ivan was going, all I could do was put together the pieces. Construction isn't good. The island is mountainous and prone to slides. There are a few hundred rivers... really mountain fed streams... to overflow.

In a few days we will get documentary proof in the form of video. No matter how bad it looks, it would have been worse to be there.

Steffie played field hockey in Newport, RI. We went along to watch and had a great time. I have some cool pictures, including the most beautiful sunset I've ever seen. But if I don't go to sleep now, I might drive this computer into a ditch.

It will be posted tomorrow.

Since she was a little girl, Steffie has played team sports. We have always gone to see her play when we could, whether it was basketball, lacrosse, or field hockey. Yesterday was field hockey in Newport, RI - 2 1/2 hours away. The day was beautiful, so we decided to go.

Oh, did I mention Steffie said it would be OK for me to bring my camera?

We have recently found that I-95 is awful on Saturday's. The traffic is bad until you approach the split between I-95 and I-395 where it gets worse. I'm hoping this is summer oriented traffic and will abate when the warm weather crowd decides to stay home.

Newport is off the beaten path as far as the Interstate Highway System is concerned. We took I-95 to Rhode Island exit 3 and then got on a two lane road - seemingly forever.

Actually, the fact that it was a two lane road through a rural area wasn't the problem. It was the speed limit that got me. Most of the way the limit was posted at 40 mph or less.

C'mon, I do 40 mph in my driveway!

Being on an island, the last part of the trip took us over two spectacular bridges (note to Rhode Island - EZ-Pass would be nice) with views of sailboat - filled bays.

I have been to Newport a few times, and was never impressed. What was wrong with me? This is a great destination. It is beautiful in so many ways, from the seaside views to the mansions to the walkable streets with shops and restaurants. More on that later.

Helaine had printed out directions from Steffie's school's website. It, unfortunately, referenced businesses that might have changed names or gone out of business. Basically, we went on a wild goose chase through Newport in search of St. George's School.

Finally, in desperation, I called the school. The person who answered, quickly offered up that she was from Massachusetts. Luckily, after another few minutes of driving around I found a landmark she knew! It didn't take long to get to the school.

It's tough to believe there's another school like St. George's. On 200 acres in Newport, it has sweeping ocean views. The land alone must be worth hundreds of millions of dollars! The campus is dominated by a large Gothic chapel. There are numerous, well kept fields for field hockey, soccer and football.

Steffie's team was there for pre-season field hockey scrimmages. Over the course of the afternoon, her team played three games - winning none. Still, it was just practice and Steffie played really well.

She had been a defensive player, but has now moved into an offensive position, basically covering the entire field. I have no idea how she and the others played three games. This is a physical game. Don't think, because these are girls playing, that it's any less aggressive.

I brought my Canon Digital Rebel and both lenses with me. It was an opportunity to try out a feature this camera has - continuous focus for sports - and the 70-300 mm zoom lens.

I am happy with how the camera and lenses worked in nearly every way. My long zoom lens is as 'powerful' as the lenses the pros use, but it is not as 'fast.' It needs much more light to produce similar pictures, and that forces me to either shoot with a slower shutter, wider aperture, faster film equivalent speed, or not take the picture at all.

There was so much bright light in Newport, it didn't make a difference.

Looking back, most of the pictures were sharp and clear. The sports mode gave me shutter settings that were very fast, mostly taking shots faster than 1/1000 of a second. That meant stopping the action without blur.

I have read reports of this Sigma 70-300 mm lens not being particularly sharp. Maybe for the most critical of applications that's true. It looks pretty sharp to me.

One of the cool parts of taking pictures at St. George's are the amazing views. Many of the shots show the beach in the background. If you didn't know any better you might think this was Malibu, not Rhode Island.

After the third game we decided to head into downtown Newport for dinner. I found a place to park ($10 - "You can park it yourself, I don't take my test for another two weeks.") and we began to walk around.

I was hungry, and no one objected, so we ducked into Christie's, located on the docks. The wait was 15 minutes, so Helaine and Steffie went to a store, while I went out on the dock to take some shots.

It wasn't long before we were seated, outside on the deck. We didn't know it when we picked Christie's, but our view was to the west and we were about to see a remarkable sunset.

Helaine and Steffie shared lobster bisque and I had chowder. Very good. My dinner was fried clams. Helaine had scallops. Steffie didn't like the stuffing of her stuffed shrimp, but everything else was fine.

As the Sun went down I picked up my camera to take some pictures. I could see, in front of me, some people with a point and shoot camera trying to get a portrait taken. It wasn't going to work - so I offered to take the shot and email it to them. That opened the flood gates.

By the time I was done, I had four email addresses in my pocket and had taken pictures of, and with, a bunch of people. It was around this time that our waiter recognized me and offered up that he was originally from Old Saybrook... instantly forcing me to up his tip another 5 %.

We passed on dessert at Christie's and headed to Ben and Jerry near where we were parked. The day had gone on a very long time. I was getting tired.

We headed back toward Connecticut, following directions Helaine had downloaded from the net. I got us to I-95 where she took over and finished the trip.

I think we were all surprised at how much we like Newport. We will definitely be back.

Blogger's note: There is a photo gallery with more pictures from our day in Newport here. Each picture on this page is also clickable for a larger view.

I have been an Eagles fan for over 25 years... but I pale in comparison to Helaine. When the Eagles lose, she can't pick up a newspaper and surfs the Internet cautiously.

Tomorrow, she will get in the car just to listen to WFAN, as they trash the Giants.

The Eagles, especially Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens, looked great in beating the Giants more soundly than the 31-17 score implied.

Is this our year? Stay tuned.

As a teen, my father gave me a Konica Autoreflex T camera. I loved that 35 mm camera and thought, because it was a 35 mm single lens reflex, I would be a good photographer. Of course, it wasn't so.

I never improved my shooting with that camera because I didn't pay attention to what I was doing, and feedback came (in the form of pictures) a long time after I had taken them. By then, I had forgotten exactly what I did to get what I got!

With digital, it's different. the camera can make a difference, but the biggest edge is being able to see you photos instantly - first on the camera's display and later on the PC screen.

By the way, though I love my Canon, I think the lcd screen on the back is awful and pictures always look like they're in soft focus.

When you've taken 10,000 photos (and I think I am approaching that number), you begin to understand how what you do translates into what the camera puts out. Unfortunately, the Canon is very different from my Fuji and I am having to relearn many techniques.

What has surprised me the most is how much can be improved after the fact. In my case, I use Photoshop and a variety of plugins and tools. I think, more than anything, Photoshop (or other tools which work just as well) can take a snapshot and make it into a photograph.

I am not above altering reality to get a better shot. Lighting levels get changed. Focus can be sharpened. Often parts of the photo that don't belong can be retouched and removed.

Here's an example. The first is a shot as it came from the camera. The second has been sharpened a bit, had some noise removed and had the levels of the darkest object (and only the darkest objects) brightened a tiny bit to add a little detail.

These are tiny images. The originals contain a whole lot more pixels, producing a lot more detail. Still, I think what I did makes a world of difference - but you can judge for yourself.

This postcard arrived via email tonight. I'm not sure who the original author is. I am sure that everyone I know in Florida feels this way - even if Ivan misses them.

News ratings are dependent on a variety of factors. One of the most important, maybe the most important, is your lead-in. It doesn't seem like it should be this way, considering how we all use the remote control, but it is.

Having a good lead-in means having a more prominent place to promote your show and the added spillover of those who were already on your channel when you come on.

It's because of this that I am disheartened to see:

Great. Unless Judge Judy solves the war in Iraq this afternoon, we head into 5:00 O'clock a little behind.

Hurricane Ivan looks like it will do a pirouette and pass through the narrow Yucatan Channel without directly touching Cuba or Mexico. That means it will maintain much of its strength that much longer (though interaction with environmental winds will take some of the punch out of Ivan over the next few days).

People in the Florida Keys and the East and West Coasts are beginning to relax, having dodged this bullet. TV coverage may begin to slack off too, because areas with the greatest connection to the Northeastern United States are off the hook.

Hold on. This storm is not over. And just because Biloxi and Mobile are not well known up here doesn't mean they're not substantial and important.

Ivan continues to have the potential to be the worst killer in the United States of the storms that have touched us this year. Yes, my parents and friends are in the clear. Still, there is no joy in following this storm.

Having the DVR does open up some possibilities. Every once in a while I just scour the listings, looking for something to record. The software on my Comcast issued Scientific Atlanta box makes this a little more difficult than it should (reverting to your current time and channel each time you set a recording). It's still worth doing.

Often, I record something and never watch it. Hey, that's life.

Last night, after watching The Daily Show, I looked through the list to see what else had been saved for me. Near the top of the list I saw, "Under Siege."

"Under Siege" is a classic 'guy' movie, starring Steven Segal, supported by Tommy Lee Jones, Gary Busey and the always inflated Erika Eleniak¹.

The concept is (this will be the first time ever this is refered to as a concept picture) a disgruntled Gary Busey, the executive officer on board the soon-to-be-decomissioned USS Missouri, conspires with Tommy Lee Jones and his gang of evil doers to steal the Missouri's contingent of nuclear weapons. First they have to neutralize the crew - often in the most violent of ways.

Of course there is one small thing they never planned for, Casey Ryback. Ryback was a Navy Seal and all around deep sea Rambo until he got busted for striking a superior officer. There's not much detail, but the brief description given makes it seem like a patriotic, yet emotional outburst from a 'real man.' Now he's a cook, finishing his 20 years in the Navy.

Is there any need to go into the details? There are a hundred other movies that are virtually the same. In fact, there's another Segal movie, starring Eric Bogosian as the whacko evil doer, which would seem like plagarism if it weren't from the same group.

There is something eerily attractive about this movie.

Busey and Tommy Lee Jones make great villains. This is espeically true of Jones who plays a psychotic who is genuinely off center in every way.

If I've seen this movie once, I've seen it a dozen times. And, if given the opportunity, I'd see it again tomorrow. It is a guilty pleasure, to be sure.

What is it that makes action movies like 'Under Siege' or nearly any submarine movie so appealing - especially to me a totally non-violent man? Is it somehow wired into my genes? I don't know and I won't attempt to fight it.

¹ - It should be noted that though Erika Eleniak appears topless for a few brief seconds near the beginning of the movie, mostly she is dressed and shot in such a way that her physique is a non-factor... as difficult as that is to believe.

I am worried the official Hurricane Center track on Ivan is too far to the east. I'm especially worried about New Orleans, the most susceptible city in the United States should a major hurricane strike,

We'll see what they say at 5:00 PM. Change is good.

Helaine went to place a call to Hartford a few minutes ago. Instead of connecting, she heard a message saying our number had been disconnected. You read right - not the number we were calling - our number had been disconnected!

I tried by placing a call to my cell phone. No problem. Then I called my folks in Florida. Again, without problem. So I called the area code 860 number Helaine had tried and sure enough, there was the announcement.

It didn't take me long to realize intrastate and interstate long distance are treated differently and maybe there was a screw up with ours. Between cell phones and Steffie's VOIP¹ service, and our really large local calling area, we hardly ever call long distance in the state.

Our long distance service has been handled for years by GTC Telecommunications. Who knows who they are? I had never heard of them. But for years we had been getting our long distance for 4.9¢, painlessly.

Then, one day while looking at their website I noticed they were advertising long distance for 2.9¢ per minute. I called, asked to be switched, and I assume the problem started then.

After waiting on hold for about 5-10 minutes Keith answered. I asked at the end of the call, but guessed from his first words, that Keith was in India. Though he was able to take care of the problem, and he did speak English perfectly, there were communications problems because he doesn't speak American English.

There are phrases and ironic statements that we all use all the time which were... well, they were foreign to Keith.

At the end of the conversation he told me I'd have to call my local phone company and tell them I needed my intrastate carrier changed to 'pic code 0333.'

No sweat.

I picked up the phone and called SBC, my 'local' phone company. I have accented 'local' because, until recently, we had our own lovely, local, responsive phone company - SNET.

SNET was the classic non-Bell local phone company, covering the vast majority of Connecticut. A few years ago, in a deal that richly rewarded their top management, SNET was sold to SBC. My phone still works, but now I'm a little jerkwater customer far away from SBC's Texas home office. Before Connecticut was SNET's only business.

SNET was sold, we were told, because they couldn't compete in this increasingly complex world of telecommunications. Now, if business is bad somewhere else in SBC's system, our bill goes up here.

After working through the voice mail tree (some options have recently changed - right) a pleasant woman with a Texas accent picked up the phone. I assume that used to be a Connecticut job. I explained my problem and read her the pic code - 0333.

"We use codes with letters" she responded.

Luckily, the carrier for my intrastate service was the same as the working carrier for my interstate service. She says it will be fixed before the close of business today. There was a $2.60 charge for switching, but considering someone dropped the ball in this mess, she waived the fee.

She couldn't have been nicer... even though she tried to upsell me some services before I could hang up.

The sad part is, years ago this was a big deal. Long distance was a much larger line item. Now, with cell phones and Steffie's VOIP service, we make many fewer long distance calls with our wired phones. Most months we're under $20 - closer to $10, for long distance.

There are people at work who don't have wired phones at all. Maybe someday soon, we'll join them.

¹ - VOIP is Voice Over Internet Protocol. Instead of having a real connection between two phones having a conversation, the phone call is digitized and sent as packets through the Internet or other data network. It is much cheaper to provide that standard phone circuits (called POTS for Plain Old Telephone Service). Steffie's phone has unlimited calling in Connecticut for $10 a month - with voice mail, caller ID and anything else you could imagine in a phone. It is why GTC can afford to route customer service calls to India and what SBC's executives have nightmares about every night.

I've just taken a look at the Mobile, AL National Weather Service radar. I don't believe there's any other remote sensor that gives you this much of a feel for what's going on.

On the shoreline, bands of heavy squalls, yellows and oranges on the radar display, are dropping torrential rains. It's the kind of rain that flows over the sides of rain gutters - except this rain is being blown horizontally.

Out in the Gulf of Mexico the eye is easily scene. It was more circular earlier. Now it has opened a little. Looking back at the last 10 images covering an hour, its rotation is obvious.

The Doppler display of winds shows an "S" shaped pattern with solid green and red bands adjacent to each other. Green shows winds moving toward the radar, red is moving away.

I've seen a few TV reporters on the air from Mobile. I hope they get out of harm's way, but I continue to worry which storm will be the one where someone will be killed on live TV as they're hit by debris or overtaken by the strong winds.

For people along the Gulf Coast, tonight will be the scariest night of the life.

In a perfect world (one where no one sends spam and windshield wipers never streak) I would own the server this website is on. It's really not a big deal. You take a computer - not even a powerful computer - hook it to a fixed IP address, run some free software and voila, you've got a website.

It's that easy. It's just not that cheap!

A fixed IP address and permission to run a server don't come with a cable modem. And putting a high speed line in my house would be fun but impractically pricey. I contract with a company in Chicago, Hostforweb.com.

I pay $100 per year to rent the space and the computing power on which this site runs. For $100, the hosting package comes with restrictions. I share the computer I use with others. I don't know how many others but at least dozens, maybe hundreds.

I have to be a good neighbor to the other websites that live with me. So, I can take some resources, but not enough to slow the others down. It's only fair. Of course, I never have an exact feel for what I'm using or what they're allowing.

Earlier today Hostforweb.com took a look at what this website was doing and realized the process I was running to post weather bulletins (on a day with two active hurricanes and other severe/strong weather) was a resource hog. I didn't think it would be, but this week in general and today specifically are not the norm.

Here's one thing Hostforweb.com does that really upsets me. When they found my server was using too many resources, they just shut me down!

Where my website once lived there was now a note telling anyone who came that there were problems. My mail was shut down too, as was my shell access (the ability to command the server computer from my home computer - or anywhere).

I contact Hostforweb.com via computer. The tech support person who answered my chat said I needed to send an email. Of course, they had shut down my email!

I called their 800 number. After a few minutes of holding I was told no one could take my call but I should send an email. On my second try I reached someone by phone.

To make a long story short, the process that was causing the problem wasn't important enough to fight about. I like my hosting, I'm comfortable here. So, I removed one tiny part of the website and they let me back on.

Actually, they had to let me back on first. Without access to the website, I couldn't do anything to fix it.

Case closed - I hope.

I love taking photos. Hopefully, my skills have been increasing over time. Now with the new camera, I feel like I have the tools to be a better photographer, maybe even a good photographer.

I go around the web reading as much as I can, trying to learn technique from others. Some of what I've read has been helpful, though there have been head scratching moments as well. I especially like Digital Photography Review and its camera specific forums.

More than anything else, it is interesting to see when others post their best shots. How did they do it? Do people really have that much forethought before clicking away? I can do better. I have done worse.

Last night, after leaving DPReview I went to a site I hadn't visited in a long time, DPChallenge This is a site that runs photography contests. There's always something being judged, another open for entries to be judged next week.

When I saw the open topic, Team Sports, I smiled. I had some shots from Steffie's field hockey game taken within the time frame the challenge provides. I entered one.

Now a day later I can see how my shot ranks - about 6.3 of 10. That number will change a bit as more people like or dislike my shot.

Originally, I though 6.3 was pretty awful - and then I looked back at some previous weeks. These people are really tough judges. A 6.3 won't win the challenge for me, but it's a reasonably good grade.

The next topic for entries is "Touch." I haven't come up with anything yet, but I'm thinking. Shooting specifically to fit a topic really is a challenge. I think I'm up to it.

It's been 12 or 13 years since I started helping out with March of Dimes and Blue Jeans for Babies. People buy buttons at work and then get to wear jeans instead of business attire on a selected day (November 8, 2004). Like so many other charity programs, the event isn't as important as the money that's raised.

The March of Dimes is a good organization because their work is focused on kids. Not many people today connect the name March of Dimes with actual dimes, but that's how it started. The March of Dimes raised the money to come up with a cure for polio - one dime at a time.

Today we cut a public service announcement at the TV station which will run during the campaign. As is always the case, I am paired with a child who has been helped by March of Dimes. This year it was three year old Amanda.

Amanda seems sweet and normal, probably a bit small for her age. She wears glasses. You don't expect a three year old to wear glasses and when they are thick, as these were, you start to wonder why.

The copy went something like, "Amanda was born three years ago - but too soon."

Tiny and dangerously premature, years ago Amanda would have been considered a miracle. To her parents, she was and still is. But even with all our technology, these amazing children are affected by their early birth.

Amanda is lovable. I knew that the moment we met.

I don't participate in Blue Jeans for Babies because of the March of Dimes. I am in it for Amanda, and all the other Amanda's I've met.

A few days ago I wrote about a problem with my long distance service. I had been cut off from making calls to the rest of Connecticut. So I called my local telco, told them the problem, and they proceeded to make my intrastate and interstate service work equally well.

Yes - they left intrastate broken and cut me off from interstate long distance too!

I'm sure at some point in the not too distant future this will be worked in. In the meantime there's something I've learned. Though the long distance provider gave me a code that defines my long distance path as 4 digits - 0333 - the local company wanted something that was three letters - UTC, for instance.

I am now on my fourth call to the long distance company - on hold each time. The first time I only waited 11 minutes before hanging up. The next time it was 29 minutes. I am now on hold for 33 minutes and I know one thing for sure... I hate their music on hold!

Actually, in between there were a few times where I called and got a busy signal and other times where I'd get an announcement telling me to hold and then get cut off!

VOIP is looking more and more like a better deal. We'll get one bill for long distance and local, get all the features and cut our bill in half! I just have to figure out how to get it into our standard wiring.

The next available agent will be with you momentarily. Please remain on the line. I've been hearing that for 38 minutes now!

Yesterday's forecast for Connecticut was full of Ivan after effects. The first showers took a little longer to get here than I expect, but were still in the state before midnight. Then the big stuff came.

On my way home from work I drove through some squalls. Never fun. Overnight, at times, there was enough rain coming down and sideways to wake me up - and I'm a very sound sleeper.

I was expecting Helaine to wake me and tell me it was raining in, but thankfully it never got to that.

By the time time the rain tapered off, we had over 3". That's a lot of rain and enough to cause some flooding this morning.

Here's the sobering part. This was a whisper compared to what a 'real' hurricane can bring. There more I know, the less I want to sit through one.

As of late this morning, we still didn't have long distance service. Because of the nature of the telephone business there were two possible points of failure - but I knew it was my local company.

I dialed 811 and then, with insight gained from a technician I spoke to yesterday, just kept pressing "0" at every prompt until a human answered.

It wasn't painful. It wasn't difficult. It was time consuming. I was called back a few times as technicians used my 'dial tone' to make sure their reprogramming had stuck.

My phone now works the way a phone should, but it is becoming increasingly difficult not to seriously consider cutting my bill in half and switching to a VOIP provider.

Last night, after dinner, Steffie convinced us to hit the mall for ten minutes. The fact is, no one has ever spent just ten minutes in a mall... though I'd like to be the first.

While Steffie and Helaine went into Abercrombie and Fitch, I went looking for reading material. I walked aimlessly since there didn't seem to be any maps or guides around. As it turned out, it was the right direction and at the very end of the mall was a B. Dalton.

I used to go right to the computer books, but I sense these don't sell the way they once did. The computing section has gotten smaller and smaller. I had written earlier about the Chevy-izing of computing and fewer books would seem to be an offshoot of that.

Recently, when I've gone to the magazine rack, it's been to look at photo magazines. I'm looking for tips and techniques. I'm certainly not looking for gear at the moment.

It is my tendency to become obsessive when I wrap myself around a new technology, like digital photography. But the learning curve is steep, and without a concentrated period at the beginning it would take forever to understand what I'm doing.

I picked up a copy of Photoshop Magazine, which I suppose qualifies as both photography and computer oriented. I started to thumb through the pages, looking at ways to make my photos better.

There are a lot of people who know more than I do about photography and Photoshop... and are significantly better at applying both.

As always, part of the fun is looking at the ads. A few minutes into my browsing I saw something I never see in national ads: "New Haven, CT."

The ad was for Software Cinema and their Photoshop Training Camp. Going to Software Cinema's website I saw ads for this program and Photoshop Training Camp Live.

OK - New Haven gets the second class show.

Still, after looking at the rundown of topics (too many suited for wedding photographers), I decided I'd go. It's $25 with advance registration - a reasonable investment.

I assume they'll have plenty to sell too. No one's coming all the way to New Haven for $25 a head.

It's pretty lucky that I stumbled upon this magazine at just the right time to see the ad for Monday's show on Saturday. I'll be kvetching about getting up early (after all, work won't be over Monday until well after midnight with our 35 minute newscast following Monday Night Football). Hopefully, I'll also be learning.

Normally, I'm a Hawaiian Standard Time guy. That means I'm out of bed around Noon Eastern time.

Today was an exception. I had plans to attend the Photoshop seminar in New Haven. The alarm rang at 9:00 AM.

Since I would go directly to work, I put a suit, shirt and tie into a plastic 'valet' bag to put in my trunk. I made sure there was a compact flash card in my camera and threw it over my shoulder. Then I picked up a bag with a portable DVD player. I use this to watch my school lectures at work.

Downstairs, Helaine asked if I had everything. I patted myself down and realized I had left the ticket to the seminar in my office.

I dropped everything and headed back to pluck the ticket from my printer. This was really the first time I was looking at it... and the first time I realized the actual date of the seminar was Wednesday!

I read an article today about some of the shortcoming of Google News.

I have no idea how they do it - finding the most important news and putting it together on a web page without human intervention. It is an incredible artificial intelligence feat.

Still, though I check Google News all the time, I find it lacking.

One of the things I like about news on the Internet is the room available for detail. I'm not a USAToday kind of guy. I think Google misses the point on this by often choosing the wrong lead source for the stories that appear.

Here's an example. In the current rundown is this headline: The Sopranos buries the competition. That's a valid story in entertainment news, but the source is, "The Scotsman - Scotland's National Newspaper Online." The next listing was for the Sydney Morning Herald (Australia) followed by ABC News and Planet Out.

Shouldn't Google 'know enough' to find a valid expert on entertainment for entertainment stories?

I still like it. I still use it. I wish it were better. Maybe people would help?

The Philadelphia Eagles are on Monday Night Football tonight. If you're not a fan, let me make an analogy. Monday Night is to football as Carnegie Hall is to music. It is a showcase venue with no other games competing. All the fans, all the other players, are watching.

As Eagles fans, this game is especially important for Helaine and me.

OK - I'll admit it. My wife is the bigger fan than I am. She's been a fan longer and is more knowledgeable. And she lives and dies with the team.

Right now the Eagles are ahead - though I know she's sitting there at home worrying about everything the Eagles can possibly do wrong. If the Vikings go ahead, she'll turn the volume on the TV down and watch without listening.

If the Eagles win, tomorrow she'll read every sports story, listen to every radio show, even stay up tonight for the post-game interviews on ESPN. If they lose, she'll be incommunicado.

The shame of it all is no matter how the season ends, unless they win the Super Bowl, it will be a disappointment.

How does one get an ingrown toenail? I don't know. In fact, I called my podiatrist and told him I thought I had one... but I wasn't really sure what it was. I knew I was in pain. I knew I was limping because any pressure on my foot was painful.

Since he was on the road anyway, he came here. It was an ingrown toenail.

I really had no idea how you get rid of an ingrown toenail, but it started to come into sharper focus when he took out a needle and lydocain. Let there be no doubt, I am a wuss.

I don't know exactly what went on - I looked away. I do know there was pressure... and blood. Right now my toe is wrapped in gauze. Sometime in the next half hour it will get soaked in warm salty water. Think of it as marinating my toe.

It is interesting to think of our family room as an operatory, with the action taking place on the footrest connected to the reclining section of the sofa!

It surprised me how much effect a small part of one toe could have on my life. Maybe that's not the typical reaction. Like I said, I'm a wuss.

Tonight we reported on a London - Washington jet diverted to Bangor, ME. Homeland Security called for the diversion because one of the passengers, Yusuf Islam, is on a US Watch List... a nice way of saying we think he is a danger to this country.

Many people know Yusuf Islam by his former name, Cat Stevens.

Back when I was a disk jockey, playing Moon Shadow and Morning Has Broken, I would often say his real name was Steven Katz. Hey - I was a disk jockey. Cheap humor was my stock in trade.

When I read the wire copy story tonight, I remembered that I had met Cat Stevens, probably back in 1970. I was a disk jockey at WMUM - FM in Palm Beach, Florida. I had been invited to a concert, which was the custom when record labels were trying to promote their artists.

At the time I was dating a girl named Barbara. That's about all I remember about her - her name.

Barbara and I drove to Ft. Lauderdale for the concert, but before it started, she got sick. I'm not sure what it was, but I remember she had trouble standing. Today it would be scary. Then, I was so naive - I never would have thought it could have been anything serious.

We were with the promotion people from Cat Stevens' record label and they had backstage access. They found a couch and Barbara laid down... in Cat Stevens' dressing room.

We never got to see him perform, but after the show he came back. It was, after all, his room. He was as nice as could be - a gentle man (and I am using both words individually by design). He seemed genuinely concerned.

This was nearly 35 years ago, so my memory is somewhat hazy, but I know it happened pretty much as I've just said. This impression of Cat Stevens has stayed with me throughout the years.

I hope our government is wrong - that he is not a threat. Of course, I hope no one is a threat. But hope isn't enough. There are threats and I understand the need for vigilance.

My real hope is he's still that gentle man I met in Ft. Lauderdale - that tonight's diversion was a mistake. There's no way I will ever know.

A few days ago I mentioned the Photoshop seminar I had signed up for. It was at the Omni Hotel here in New Haven.

Though the seminar started at 9:00, I showed up around 10:30. The first hour and a half was optional to me. OK - I didn't go to sleep until 2:00 AM. I wasn't rushing out of bed.

The seminar was actually a computer generated video presentation. The screen was large, the sound was good. I was able to follow along from my seat halfway back in the room.

There were a few times when I wanted to raise my hand and ask for something to be explained... for the presentation to be rewound. Of course, that's not possible with this kind of setup.

I took some notes - not enough. I think I learned a lot. It wasn't as much specific techniques as it was understanding how some tools were used conceptually. Now I have to experiment.

My $25 was money well spent. During our lunch break I went around New Haven taking photos. Later tonight I'll post them and some observations about the city.

I had hoped my freshly repaired big toe would have been better today. Bad guess.

As soon as I put shoes on, I realized this would not be my finest hour. As I walked, from a distance, I looked like Walter Brennan in the Real McCoys¹. It was really painful. And, of course, with my trip to New Haven, this was going to be a day with a good amount of walking (the garage under the hotel was full - my first sign of trouble).

Yesterday, I was pained by my ingrown toenail. Today, it felt like the treatment to fix it had been performed using a hammer. It was worse, not better.

I figured it would be a good thing to go home between shows and soak (marinate) my toe in salt water. I'm not sure what the magical property of salt water is, but I was willing to try anything.

As I took the Bandaid off, the toe was still very sore. I winced like the wussy male I am. I make no claims to dealing well with pain. Let others be macho. I avoid I dipped it in the warm water and then a strange thing happened - relief.

This is much too weird, because I don't think dipping my toe in the salt water should affect this kind of swift change. Yet after ten minutes my pain was markedly down... way down. My limp was gone. I reverted to walking with the bad posture I'm known for.

I have to call the podiatrist tomorrow to report back on my condition. Between now and then I'll be soaking again. It would be nice to have something positive to report.

It's not to make him feel better. Selfishly, this is for me.

¹ - Making references to a TV show which ran from 1957 to 1963 probably doesn't get me pegged as young and hip. On the show, Brennan walked with a very distinctive limp with a hitch. Whether that was his own gate or superb physical acting is beyond me.

Maybe it was the beauty of the day. Maybe it was because I had my camera and wanted to take some shots. I spent a good part of today walking through Downtown New Haven and was mostly pleased by what I saw.

Sure, I work on the edge of downtown, but I drive in from the 'burbs, park in our lot and don't hang around when work ends at 11:35 pm.

A little backstory is probably necessary. I wasn't here, but around 30 years ago New Haven set out on a vast urban renewal program. The ripped up and relocated and began to rebuild... until they stopped.

A highway, garage and right of way for more highway that was never built, isolated part of the city from its core. A poorly thought out urban mall was built. Some very ugly architecture (like the now defunct New Haven Coliseum) went up.

It started as a flesh wound, but left untreated this urban renewal project sucked the life out of the city.

When I came, 20 years ago, there was talk of the Ninth Square Project... and nothing happened. One of the mall's anchor stores, Malleys, had already closed. It wasn't long before Macy's shut down too. The city festered. The downtown deteriorated.

A few years ago a restaurant renaissance began. Along with the Italian restaurants of Wooster Street, fashionable... might I say trendy restaurants started popping up.

Still, the central city emptied out before dark. Streets were deserted.

Now, it seems like the corner has been turned. The Ninth Square Project is finally bearing fruit. People are living in that downtown neighborhood... and as people at work have told me, with reasonably pricey rents - a sign of demand.

Today I walked past more downtown apartments with more under construction. This is a very good sign.

The older architecture of the city is truly beautiful. There are lots of buildings with ornate exterior work. These are buildings with structural integrity which have been or can be refurbished.

A thriving downtown is the key to a thriving city. Downtown New Haven was built for walking - literally. It should be a walking city again, day and night.

I am serious when I say today I got excited as I walked around New Haven.

It isn't perfect. Taxes are high. The problems of an urban center add a hidden tax in the form of higher insurance. In a society that primarily shops at malls, the mall is no more. Yale is often perceived as a foreign enclave plucked into, but not part of, the city.

But there is a lot going on. There are places to eat, places to live. There are residents walking the streets.

The Downtown New Haven neighborhood is as strong, probably stronger, than I've seen it in 20 years.

After making an entry on the DPChallenge website for their Action Team Sports competition (my photo was 15th of 140 submitted) two weeks ago, I couldn't come up with anything for last week's challenge.

Now I'm worried the same thing will happen this week. The topic is Wacky Food - and I don't have a clue what I could shoot.

The contest I enter is for basic editing only - no Photoshop tricks. So, that means I can't use this shot I just took using some dry ice and a bit of post processing.

The forecast for Hurricane Jeanne shows no mercy on the Sunshine Sate. If things go according to plan, by Saturday night Jeanne should be bearing down on the Florida coast with a path similar to Frances.

I can't imagine Jeanne will move as slowly, but it's quite possible her winds will be stronger than Frances. Much of the East Coast has already been weakened without repair.

Can a state throw its collective hands up in resignation?

This hasn't been a particularly good year to live in Florida. I can't ever remember this many storms hitting one state. And now, the possibility of a Category 3 storm right where Frances hit a few weeks ago.

I spoke to my folks tonight. My mom and dad still have enough batteries and bottled water to start a store. The unknown adventure that faced them with Frances is now gone. They've seen this enemy before and aren't please by the implications.

They are now paying a special assessment from their condo association to cover the cleanup from Frances. The four days and three nights they spent without power is still fresh on their minds. My dad doesn't want to go another week without Internet service (as he did).

Forget for a second how this will affect people who currently live in Florida. Over the longer term how will this affect who moves to Florida? A lot of people who would have jumped to Florida a month or two ago, won't!

Will this be a blow to the Florida economy? I can't see how it won't. Yes, there will be outside money coming in to rebuild (insurance, federal aid, etc.). At the same time there will be unreimbursed personal financial losses, the immediate loss of tourism dollars and the longer term repercussions of people staying away.

It doesn't have to be a large percentage to create a large problem.

We know this hurricane season is unusual, but we don't know if that fact is meaningful in any way. Is this an anecdotal aberration? Is this the beginning of a trend where strong hurricanes forget to turn into the ocean and hit the coast?

Is this an incredible run of bad luck or have we just been uncommonly lucky in the past?

A few days ago I went to Downtown New Haven for a Photoshop seminar. During the lunch break I walked around, camera in hand. I think, in many ways, New Haven is a picturesque city. You can judge for yourself - I've posted some of the photos.

Helaine had to drop her car off for some minor scratch removal. I followed in my car and brought her back home. It's a glorious day with bright sunshine and comfortable temperatures. I had the top down.

As we drove back, radio on¹, David Bowie's classic Changes was playing. I looked up to see the first of the leaves beginning to lose their green. They're on their way to a brief splash of color and then a leaf strewn front yard.

And then Bowie sang:

And, of course, that's the problem with what's happening in the trees. I can't change the inevitable - winter is on the way. I revile winter. To me, there is no upside. If I felt, and I don't, that it was possible to be cold and have fun, it might be a different story.

We're no more than two months away from snow. Sobering! What's the upside to snow?

Sure the thermometer is still holding nicely in the 70s but that won't last. Every day the Sun gets lower in the sky, its rays less effective in warming us.

There is one quirk of nature that gives us some relief. Because of the Earth's non-circular orbit around the Sun, spring and summer are a week longer than fall and winter. It's not enough. I want more.

When I lived in Florida, back in the early 70s, I used to laugh when hand lotion and snow tire commercials played. Soon, the laugh will again be on me.

¹ - I have been told, in no uncertain terms, that driving with the top down and news on the radio only goes to make me a loser. Point taken.

This is very exciting to me - so play along if you don't understand why. I have managed to become part of our sports team tomorrow and I'll be going to the UCONN/Army football game with a sideline photo pass.

That's the good part - having the photo pass. I'm bringing the camera - absolutely.

I know this is not a glamor game. UCONN should dominate Army. Still, how many more opportunities will there be to shoot in comfortable weather with enough sunlight to make up for my camera's relatively slow lens?

Hopefully there will be something cool to post tomorrow. Hopefully a 300 pound lineman will not hit me while going out-of-bounds after the ball.

I'm bringing enough memory to take at least 400 pictures... and worrying it's not enough!

Jeanne is making her presence felt along Florida's East Coast. Rain is pouring - often horizontally! I'm not sure if there are hurricane force winds yet, though what difference does it make. There is enough wind to do damage.

Earlier today when I spoke to my folks they told me the cleanup from Frances isn't even complete. There is still debris - branches, twigs, fronds - piled on the ground. Tonight, those are undoubtedly missiles.

Hopefully they won't lose power. That's the 'insult to injury' move in a Florida hurricane.

It's funny how some people do understand a hurricane's fury while others do not. My friend Paul was supposed to fly from Los Angeles to Ft. Lauderdale for some business tomorrow. Bzzzzz - canceled. The airport is closed.

On Wednesday he's supposed to go to Orlando. I told him that might not be a good idea. He couldn't figure out why... the hurricane surely would be gone.

Yes - but the memory lingers (as do the downed trees and power lines).

Pulp Fiction just finished on Bravo. I only watched the last third or so. It doesn't make any difference, I've seen the movie many times.

This is an amazing movie. It's also the most violent movie I like. I wish that weren't so, but the movie is powerful enough to overcome the objections I'd normally have.

I think there are some exceptional performances, that's probably what impresses me the most.

First, Samuel L. Jackson. He is so powerfully weird, yet believable at the same time. I can't think of one thing he should have done differently. My opinion of him as a person, in appearances I've seen since Pulp Fiction, is totally based on the character he played here. In essence, I'm accepting this movie as his own personality.

John Travolta's work is nearly to the same level. He's also believably weird, though not quite as weird as Samuel L. Travolta's best performances have been with characters who are off center, like this movie and Get Shorty.

The problem is, I just can't recommend Pulp Fiction. There are too many weird scenes, too many violent images. As good as it is, I wouldn't take the responsibility.

But, wow - what a movie.

There are more photos available from this blog entry by clicking here

I wasn't going to let a sore toe stop me (actually, I would have, but the toe is getting a little better day-by-day). This was my day to shoot pictures at the UConn - Army game.

I left the house around 10:30 and drove to Rentschler Field in East Hartford. I knew where the field was, sort of. I had printed out directions off the computer, but chose to listen to the DOT's radio station on 1610 kHz to get me where I was going.

Any time I've listened to DOT's network of low power highway stations I've been disappointed. Usually, there was no usable timely info at all! Adding insult to injury, the broadcast is sometimes padded with time killers, moving you farther from the content you really want to hear. And the signal strength and audio quality are awful

Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

This time was different. The station repeated a recording of simple directions to the field from all the major access roads. This is exactly what should be on.

I turned past the Pratt and Whitney property and followed the cars. If had no idea where to go with my parking pass, but the attendants along the way saw it and waved me in the right direction. I parked about 4-5 minutes walk from the stadium on what looked like well manicured grass.

Thank heavens it wasn't raining! In fact it was partly cloudy and well into the 70s. In other words, perfect.

I met John Pierson, our sports reporter and Kevin Frederick (who normally shoots video for sports, but was at the game as a 'civilian,'). I'm glad I ran into John because I don't think I would have known where to go or what to do once I got into the stadium.

We made our way down to the field level. Both teams were on the field warming up. The stands were 25% full. By game time the teams would have left and returned for their official introductions and the stands would have filled closer to capacity¹.

I carried my Canon Digital Rebel with the Sigma 70-300 mm lens attached. Over my shoulder was a small camera bag with an 18-125 mm lens, a spare battery and two extra compact flash cards.

By the end of the game... actually before the end of the game, all three cards were filled. That's over 1 gigabyte of photos! The final count was 317 actual. That's fewer shots than I anticipated by nearly a hundred. I'm not sure why this particular shoot created such big files.

If there's one thing I learned at the game, it's that I need one more card. The prices are down. I'll order one later today.

John took me to the end zone section adjacent to where the Huskies would enter. He introduced me to four girls, including quarterback Dan Orlovsky's sister. Then we went and met Dan's father who has better seats than his daughter!

Dan Sr. and I chatted for a few minutes. Not knowing him, but knowing who his son is, I addressed him as Mr. Orlovsky. Respect under these circumstances is appropriate and fair.

I later found out he's two years younger than me. Maybe the mister part wasn't necessary?

There's an interesting observation to be made here. I have often equated hurricane watching to seeing a car accident in slow motion. Watching Dan Orlovsky is like watching a Lotto winner in slow motion. You know it's just a matter of time before he's worth millions of dollars from the NFL. He's got to know that too. He's that good - probably a first round pick.

I was afforded an incredible amount of access and freedom on the field. Back a few feet from the out of bounds line and end zone was another line - a dashed line. As long as I stayed behind it, I was fine. It gave me an amazing view of the field.

I started shooting on the first play and soon learned it was very difficult to follow the action on a pass play with a lens. Following with a TV camera is one thing, but my still camera rewards someone who can anticipate where the ball will be in the fraction of a second it takes for the mirror in the camera to flip and the shutter to open.

Often, I'd have my camera at the ready as a play would start, but I'd never get anything to shoot. Other times the player would be turned away from me or blocked by someone else. Sometimes my camera, which is supposed to continually focus while shooting sports action, just wouldn't focus quickly enough or would focus on something other than what I was tracking.

You can be the judge. I've taken forty of the best shots and put them in my gallery. The thumbnails don't give you a sense of what was shot, so please click for larger versions.

At halftime I went under the stands to a small room for the on-field media. It was surprising to see a number of newspaper photographers downloading their shots onto laptops and sending them on their way. At least one photographer (New Haven Register, I think) was using Photoshop - processing and cropping her shots before an editor even saw them.

As I expected, I saw a lot of much faster lenses - big lenses with wide openings. One of the photographers had a humongously telephoto lens with f1.8 speed. He's getting 8 times as much light as I am, giving him a great deal of latitude. On the other hand, I can still buy food, something I wouldn't be able to do as the owner of that lens.

Most of these big lenses demand a monopod. They are too heavy to hand hold for long. The monopod is actually attached to the lens and not the camera body itself.

As the second half was starting I walked by the UConn bench and said hello to Jeff Fox, one of the players. I'm not sure if he got what I was trying to say... that we both had the same name (though one of us spells it incorrectly).

It is cool to have a player with the same name as me. He can't be related though. None of my relatives, or their families, have any athletic ability at all!

By the time I was finished shooting the stands were back to being 25% full. UConn had cut through the Army like a hot knife through butter. It wasn't a contest.

This was fun. I'd like to try again. I'm not sure I can quantify what I've learned from this, but I'd look back at my shots and try and figure out what worked and why and how I can do it again.

There are more photos available from this game. Just click here

¹ - The game was a sellout, though that doesn't mean everyone attended. There were plenty of empty seats.

For the third consecutive week the Philadelphia Eagles were featured on local television. That meant Helaine and I were glued to the TV.

Wow! They beat the Detroit Lions, and it was never close.

I don't want to put some sort of curse on the team, but maybe this is the year? Of course as a real Eagles fan, my fear is the unknown. Who will get injured? Who will under perform? Will some competing coach figure out what makes the Eagles tick and turn the season around?

Next week, foolishly, local TV will carry the New York Giants game. We'll listen to the radio broadcast over the computer.

Until the final gun sounds for the Super Bowl we will walk on eggshells waiting for the disappointment that's become an Eagles tradition.

This is my 'busy' charity season. In fairly rapid succession I have the JDRF Walk to Cure Diabetes, Blue Jeans for Babies and the Gateway Community College Awards Dinner.

I am very lucky. How many people have a TV station to 'give away.' Starting this afternoon I'll be plugging the JDRF walk this weekend. Can I get more people to show up - get them more money for research? I don't know, but I'd like to try.

Same thing with the March of Dimes and Gateway. Can I raise awareness? Does that translate into money?

Who knows how long the television business, or any business, will remain community spirited? I have seen, with other charities I help, that as local companies are bought by out-of-towners¹ the commitment to local charity often dwindles.

Meanwhile, the JDRF walk is this Sunday. I have asked to borrow our copter and think I'll get it, so we can get video and be at both Anthem Blue Cross in North Haven and Rocky Neck State Park. At this point, the weather looks good.

¹ - In recent entries I had talked about SNET being bought by SBC. As far as I know their charity commitment remains high. This is a different local utility which is no longer locally owned.

Forget about the Tonight Show being an NBC tradition. Forget about Johnny and Steve Allen and everyone who has had their career launched there. For a moment, think of the Tonight Show as what it is for NBC, an incredible cash cow.

I have read many estimates of NBC's profit from the Tonight Show. The prevailing wisdom is somewhere between $75-100,000,000 per year. That's an unbelievable number, probably the most profitable program NBC runs - possibly more profitable than prime time.

That's why today's announcement concerning the Tonight Show is so strange. NBC consistently beats CBS in late night, yet in five years, Conan O'Brien will replace Jay Leno as the Tonight Show's host.

I can't think of an announcement NBC could have made that would be more surprising.

It just seems out of character that Jay Leno, a workaholic, devoted to performing, would do this on his own. It's possible Conan put pressure on NBC - after all the CBS late night show is searching for a host and they don't want to lose him. But how could NBC ask Jay to go?

None of it makes any sense to me. But now we have five years of hearing the 'inside story' and allowing egos to build and possibly boil over.

A few years ago I visited my family physician for something... I can't even remember what it is now. He's a great doctor and a good friend. I trust him with my life. Is there any greater endorsement?

After his examination, before anything else, he turned to me and said, "It's not cancer."

Cancer had never even entered my mind. This changed things. As of that moment, everything was cancer.

This weekend a pea sized lump formed on my upper gum. It didn't hurt, it wasn't bothering anyone. It just didn't belong there.

I knew in my heart-of-hearts it was an infection - not good, but certainly commonplace. But all I could think of was, "It's cancer."

I know, this is ridiculous... and yet there's nothing I can do. I see my own mortality. I don't like the idea.

As soon as I woke up Monday I called my periodontist¹. This morning I went for a visit.

Of course, it was just an infection. Unfortunately, that means I'll need root canal... and as it turns out, I also have an endodontist. The fun begins early (for me) next Tuesday morning.

In the general scheme of things the prospect of root canal is a relief. Isn't that a sad state of affairs?

¹ - If you have a periodontist, life is already cruel. He's a nice guy, but I'd rather see him socially than dentally.

It wasn't that long ago that I saw the first hardy plants sticking their heads up through the snow. I knew winter would soon be gone. Summer would soon be here. Spring is a time of birth.

On the other hand there's fall. Fall needs to hire a good PR rep, because my inclination is to say, fall is a time of death. That's not positive spin.

Though fall officially started last week, this is the first day with a real fall feel.

The remnants of Hurricane Jeanne came through yesterday. It was a stormy day with a month's worth of rain. Now the ground is lettered with dead leaves. The pavement is darker because of the moisture absorbed. The Sun doesn't have quite enough strength to burn off our cloud deck. The wind, a chilly wind, is blowing with a consistency it can't muster during the summer. It is a cold wind.

In a day or time there will be a rebound - warmth will return. It won't be the same. It won't be here as long.

I am not a fan of winter. In fact I root against winter in much the way I root against the Dallas Cowboys. Winter is next, isn't it?

Scott Muni died today. He was 74.

I'm going to write about him even though I write about entirely too many dead people. It makes me seem old. It's depressing. Still, these are people who have influenced my life and, in a blog that revolves around my life, they should be mentioned.

You may or may not know Muni, though I'm sure you've heard his 'gargling with razor blades' voice. When I was growing up, Scott Muni was a larger than life figure on WABC, a larger than life radio station.

The fact that he survived for over 40 years in New York radio speaks volumes by itself.

Scott was in radio when radio had amazing power. The best example of that is what happened when the Beatles came to the United States.

Whatever you know about big rock stars, the Beatles were bigger. When they came to New York for the Ed Sullivan Show they stayed at the Delmonico Hotel on Park Avenue. The streets surrounding the hotel were jammed with young girls. They were there by the thousands.

Scott Muni was there, in the hotel waiting for an exclusive interview, and broadcasting live on WABC. When he said, on the radio, that the Beatles had arrived, you could hear a roar - a huge roar from the assembled crowd. Many of those girls outside the hotel had come with transistor radios and they were listening to WABC.

It was very impressive. It's probably the most impressive example of radio's immediate power in the 1960s that I have heard. It represents a golden age of radio which will probably never reappear.

As FM radio began to take hold, Scott went with it. He was associated with nearly every rock group of any import over the last 30+ years. He had been with WNEW-FM for 31 years before they finally let him go.

How do you fire a legend?

I heard his show late in his time at WNEW. At that point, to me, he no longer sounded like he fit. He was a 70 year old man playing music for people in their teens and twenties.

My memories of Scott will always be those years on WABC when radio spoke to me and Scott was one of its strongest voices.

Now, I'm asking nicely. Please, no one else die.

I woke up early (for me) Wednesday, turned on the TV and saw SpaceShipOne fly to space and back. Very impressive. It looks likely this entry from Burt Rutan will claim the $10,000,000 Ansari X Prize. That's something I first predicted back in May - though it didn't take a genius to come to that conclusion.

OK - it cost more than $10,000,000 to develop the ship, but that's not the point. This venture has commercial potential beyond the X Prize itself.

I watched on CNN because I think Miles O'Brien is not only knowledgeable but he's connected and often has information others do not. I thought sitting him with Burt's brother Dick, an aerospace legend in his own right who piloted the first non-stop round the world unrefueled flight, was a bad idea. Either Dick's mind was somewhere else (excusable under the circumstances) or he just doesn't have the right makeup for TV.

The plane took off, tucked under another Burt Rutan flying contraption. In this regard it was similar to the early X-15 rocket plane, launched from beneath the wing of a B-52. At about 50,000 feet SpaceShipOne was released and within seconds its rubber burning engine was pushing it toward the heavens¹.

A minute or so later SpaceShipOne, moving vertically, began to roll. I've seen a number of different figures but it was at least 16 revolutions, maybe more.

Watching the roll, I assumed I was watching a disaster in the making. I knew there was no reason for the ship to corkscrew itself into space. Any second I expected to see a wing break off or parts begin to disintegrate.

Obviously none of that happened. On the ground, pilot Mike Melville said it was probably something he had done. I don't believe that for one second.

With the backing of Richard Branson, SpaceShipOne is the prototype for space tourism. It's not good for business to say your rocket ship is unstable or difficult to control - but it surely is.

Rutan will figure a way to get around this problem for one more flight, win the prize, and modify this design into a more stable model for commercial work. SpaceShipOne will go to the Smithsonian before it can hurt anyone.

This is a great program. The government's space program is so top heavy, so money laden, that it has discouraged anyone else to get into the business. Rutan and people like him will change that paradigm.

Under different circumstances I would be very upset about the post-flight claims concerning the spinning. Today, I'll let it pass.

¹ - I have read and like to say it's a tire burning engine. Dave Brody, former Executive Producer of Inside Space (a show I hosted under his tutelage) on the SciFi Channel and now in a similar position at Space.com, says it actually burns condoms - a much more romantic thought.

I am poised for tonight's presidential debate from Coral Gables. Like hurricane coverage that starts two days before the storm arrives, the TV pundits have run out of valuable things to say.

Here's my point: Debates can affect elections.

As close as it was, Al Gore's horrendously stiff show in the last election debates probably cost him the presidency. Remember 'lock box,' a phrase he obviously wanted to get in no matter what was asked?

There was Ronald Reagan's "there you go again" to Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford's premature freeing of Poland from communist rule, and Richard Nixon's five o'clock shadow.

Tonight I hope it's not a gaffe that eliminates one man from the presidency, but a realization by the voters of where they stand vis a vis the other.

I recently watched an entire George Bush campaign stop on ABC World Now. There was no commentary and no cut aways. Bush was masterful. I was extremely impressed at his warm, folksy style. To see it used so effectively was unexpected, to say the least. If he can pull that off in this debate (of course in a campaign appearance he never faces critical commentary or questions from his audience as he will tonight), Kerry might as well start wind surfing tomorrow.

On the other hand, for the first time, Kerry gets seen in context with the president. Will he look presidential, compared to the man who currently defines that role? If he does, that goes a long way to calming some fears.

How will he handle the charge of flip flop? If John Kerry changes that perception, Bush has a much tougher opponent for the next 33 or so days.

Will either candidate attack the other? If so, how will the voters react? It can be looked at as a sign of strength, or the trait of a desperate man, depending on how the attack is wielded.

This will be very interesting to watch. I'll be glued to my seat.