August 27, 2005 Archives

Earlier this afternoon, before the Hurricane Center issued its 5:00 PM update on Katrina, I sent an instant message to my friend Bob at FSU. I told him I was putting up a dollar that Katrina's forecast would be shifted left.

It was.

I had the exact same feeling tonight... and NHC moved it again.

Maybe feeling is the wrong word, because this isn't intuition or guesswork. I could see signs. The storm was refusing to make the predicted right turn. In fact, it was traveling south of west.

To the north there was some sort of convergence. Feeder bands from the hurricane were meeting something moving from the north. Clouds were showing up bright white - a sign they were developing vertically.

Whatever it was to the north, it would impede that right turn forecast at the Hurricane Center.

I'm sure I've said this before, but it's worth repeating. The best hurricane information is often contained in the forecaster's technical discussion. These really were meant to be 'internal use only' documents, but you can't do that when you work for the government.

In these the lead forecaster discusses what has gone into the latest forecast package. I'm sure it's very helpful at NHC after the hurricane season is over or whenever post mortems are done.

I'll attach tonight's at the end of this message so you can get a feel for yourself. This one was written by Dr. Lixion Avila, one of NHC's hurricane specialists. Four of the six specialists are Ph D's. This is specialized work.

Sometimes, I sense, things are thrown in with the understanding that it's more than meteorologists reading.

No one trained in weather needed that line. Some surface water in the Northern Gulf of Mexico is 90+. Without a doubt, this is a dangerous storm and getting more dangerous by the minute.

My biggest fear is Katrina will head west of New Orleans and strike the coast there. A Category 4 storm (which is the forecast) in that location would be devastating. For a variety of reasons, New Orleans is incredibly vulnerable and a strike like that would be the worst of all possible scenarios!

Man, I hope he's right. So far, this storm has been poorly forecast¹. And, recently, each succeeding forecast has moved the path farther left... farther to the west.

Today alone, the center of the forecast path for landfall has moved a few hundred miles.

More on Katrina later. We have a few days with this storm at sea before the real trouble begins.

¹ - By poorly forecast, I don't mean NHC did a bad job. I mean the ability to forecast this particular storm was beyond the capabilities of science at the moment. Something's there that no one can get a handle on. That we don't know exactly why it went wrong is as troubling as it going wrong... maybe more.

Back in 1996 I took a ride with the Hurricane Hunters to visit Hurricane Bertha. As long as I've had websites, I've always found a place to post it. You can find it here. I think it's interesting reading, especially during hurricane season.

There is a phrase used in journalism when you take the most important part of a story and overshadow it with something less important. That's what's going on with the Weather Service's forecast for New Orleans.

Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Hello? You're forecasting a hurricane for heaven's sake. And, you're forecasting it in, arguably, the most susceptible place in the country.

In the forecasters defense, what you read is a product of a semi automated process which puts words to forecast parameters... still. This way a forecaster can write lots of different pinpoint forecasts based on wide area information.

Let me use that word again... still!

Hurricane Katrina has strengthened, but not as much as would be anticipated. There are odd signs.

All that aside, conditions in the Gulf are so strongly favorable for development that short term fluctuations or even developmental weakness should be disregarded. At least that's how it looks this morning.

It's always possible, after the fact, things like the flight level wind will be looked at as a sign we saw and missed.

There's not much surface data coming in now from the area near Katrina. The highest wind I can find is 'only' a 45 knot (about 52 mph) gust at a buoy (the 30 foot tall one in the photo on the left) located about 300 miles south of Panama City, FL. The buoy is rolling in 25 foot waves, in the 86° water.

Right now I'm scared for New Orleans.

Just spoke to a friend whose mom lives in New Orleans.

"Tell her to leave today," I said.

The storm won't be there until Monday, but I'm worried. Access to New Orleans is very limited. Roads will jam.

He said she's planning on going to a shelter. I told him she should go north, out of the New Orleans area. The state will have shelters north.

I also told him my forecast might be wrong. It's two days away. Look how poorly this storm was forecast Friday!

Making calls like this are neither fun nor easy. I no more want to tell him his mother is in harm's way than he wants to hear it. But how can I not?

There is really no story to go with this photo. It's just a great photo featuring my uncle, Murray, and his grandson, my cousin, Max. It was shot by my cousin, Michael.

Murray lives in Maryland. Max lives in California. Their being together is a treat all by itself. Add in their expressions and... well, it's just a great photo.

I just got off the phone with my friend's mom in New Orleans.

We've never met in person, but she knows me. I've fixed her computer by remote control. She's seen me on TV while visiting her daughter in Connecticut. I've known her son for over 25 years and he's a trusted friend.

She understands I'm looking out for her.

"Leave," I said. "Leave now."

This morning's Times-Picayune showed the path well to the east of New Orleans. That's changed.

The latest from the Hurricane Center, and all my other normally reliable sources say, Hurricane Katrina is major trouble. She has the potential to be as devastating as any hurricane in my lifetime.

Over the phone my friend's mom has always sounded younger than her chronological age. Speaking to her now, her real age showed.

Driving long distances are very tiring to her. She didn't know where there would be shelters to accommodate her. She wasn't quite sure where 'north' was, when I said to drive north past Lake Ponchartrain as far as she could go.

As much as she fears leaving the house, she needs to fear staying even more. Riding out a hurricane is something people only do once. Once is enough to make them realize they never want to do it again.

And, as has been said by me and others, New Orleans is a special case. It is incredibly susceptible to flooding. It floods regularly from heavy rain. Flooding from the direct hit of a Category 4 storm would be of historic proportions.

I wish I could run down and toss her over my shoulder, carrying her to safety. It's not that easy. There's no access. She's alone. She's probably coming to the realization that there's something to fear.

As I hung up the phone, I said, "Next week when we speak, I want you to complain that I made you leave your home... and for what? I want to be wrong about Hurricane Katrina."

I'm scared I won't be.