August 28, 2005 Archives

We've got a little coverage problem at work. I've been asked to work Sunday morning - airtime: 6:00 AM! So, I've napped a bit this evening and will try and catch a few more hours of sleep before then.

In essence, I'm trying to put myself on 'jet lag'.

As long as I'm up, another look at the hurricane progress. Since leaving Florida, Hurricane Katrina has been left alone in the open Gulf of Mexico. She's intensified, but not as much as I would have thought. Still, the official number at this hour is 115 mph - that's a wickedly powerful storm.

The forecast path is still a worst case scenario for New Orleans¹

A common hurricane misconception is that its winds are only affected by the outside environment. Is there warm water? Are the feeders and outflow unimpeded? Is the hurricane being dragged near rough terrain, like mountains on an island? Things like that.

Often missed is the eyewall cycle. Hurricanes are constantly reforming their eyewall, shedding the old one for a new one. During this cycle, the strength of the hurricane's winds are temporarily reduced, only to spring right back up. If this happens as a storm approaches land, you've dodged a bullet... or at least lowered the caliber.

That's what's being talked about in this discussion from the Hurricane Center:

At the home page of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, there is no new news - none! The website seems to be untouched since Saturday morning, or more likely Friday night. I can't believe that, under these critical circumstances, but it's true.

WWL-TV is up-to-date, including information on "contraflow." Some interstates and other highways now have all their lanes heading north! It works moderately well, but it's confusing.

New Orleans needs to empty out now. There is no longer enough time to consider the forecast might be wrong. People staying in New Orleans, or much of the rest of Southern Louisiana, do so at their own peril.

¹ - When meteorologists talk weather, they often abbreviate, using the airport identifier. Bradley International is BDL, Kennedy in New York is JFK, West Palm Beach is PBI. Some are non-intuitive. New Orleans is MSY. I cannot think of New Orleans without MSY popping into my head.

The Navy has published a study which forecasts the effect of a hurricane on New Orleans. It's somewhat dry and a little technical, but interesting tonight.

The alarm clock is set to go off in an hour. I can't sleep. I've gotten a few hours of rest, no more.

Hurricane Katrina continues to be my concern. While I tossed and turned, Katrina was turning it up a notch.

Only a tiny portion of Hurricane Katrina is visible on radar. It's too far from shore - over 300 miles from New Orleans. The satellite image is very impressive with a clearly visible eye. That's a change from earlier.

While I type this, I am watching WWL-TV New Orleans with streaming video. I think they're doing an excellent job. I know WDSU is also feeding video, but I haven't checked them yet.

The most surprising part of the coverage is the lack of traffic showing up on the live cameras. It's late at night. At this point people are probably waiting until daylight.

WWL is going to learn this kind of coverage is a marathon, not a sprint. They'll need to keep enough strength and staff to go another few days wall-to-wall.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune has updated their site, and the front page today is a lot different than the front page yesterday. Click here for a full size image (Adobe Acrobat Reader necessary).

Over the past few days I've commented on some of the wide swings in the forecast for Hurricane Katrina. Now, it looks like the swings have stopped.

Is this the meteorological kiss of death? Is the Hurricane Center patting itself on the back too soon?

The satellite presentation is massive with a well defined eye. This is still a devastating forecast for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Katrina has grown to 160 mph or Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

These numbers don't mean much to most of us. What frame of reference is there? You've never experienced 160 mph winds (and hopefully never will).

The Hurricane Center's categories are based on a scale which relates winds speed to specific damage. Here's what Category 5 really means:

And, like the old time movies with the heroine tied to the railroad tracks, a lumbering train is moving toward New Orleans and there's no way to escape.

After working this morning, I came home and caught a few more hours of sleep. I'll explain later, but my day is far from done. I'm driving to Uncasville later this afternoon¹.

My first TV viewing was to scan the all news channels. The attitude concerning Hurricane Katrina is much different than yesterday. Whether the channels are feeding on each other's energy or truly understand the gravity of the situation, is an unknown. They are in "Big Story Panic Mode."

When TV shows back-to-back phoners with no live video, the implication is the story is huge.

This is not misplaced angst. Everything I can see about this storm says the same thing. It's is a monster.

A few minutes ago, I sent this IM to my friend Bob at FSU:

Maybe that's an academic point. If Katrina went from its current 175 mph sustained wind to 150 mph, no one would notice the difference.

Force is calculated by squaring the wind speed. So, at this point, it's not how many miles per hour Katrina increases or decreases, it's whether that number is a significant percentage of the starting point.

He's right. You can't give people a reason to stay at this point. The downside is just too tragic. I'm sure this is a mixed metaphor, but the risk is much greater than our ability to accurately forecast landfall.

Doing live television for hours on end is no easy task. From time-to-time we'll all slip. I saw WWL-TV last night and they were doing an excellent job. This guy gets a temporary pass from me - though he shouldn't have said what he said.

My friend's mom in New Orleans has left her home. Yesterday I could hear how little she wanted to do that. She was alone and scared. Whatever guidance was being given by officials wasn't enough to reassure her.

This is a much better scenario than her original intention to stay at the Superdome itself. It would seem to me, a building like that is the wrong place to seek shelter, with its high and large roof. And, being in the city, it too is built below sea level.

It won't be long before Hurricane Katrina is well within radar range. The best pictures come when the storm is squarely within the view of the lowest radar tilt. Right now feeder bands dominate.

If you were at the mouth of the Mississippi right now, you would see heavy rolling surf. The wind would be gusty, but not even tropical storm strength.

From time-to-time the southeastern sky would darken as squalls moved in.

These would be rain storms that start with heavy rain - not easing in from light to moderate to heavy. The drops would be huge... blobs of rain is probably a better description than drops.

And then, as suddenly as the rain began, it would end. As the day went on, these squalls would each become progressively stronger with the time between squalls decreasing.

The big stuff would be there until tomorrow.

¹ - If you're not in Connecticut, Uncasville is as centrally located and convenient to get to as the name Uncasville implies.

I'm writing this from the Mohegan Sun Hotel in Eastern Connecticut. Tomorrow I'll be emceeing a program for Norwich Free Academy. It starts so early, the only way to make it work was to stay on site.

What a spectacular hotel. It is attached to a spectacular casino, which would be a great place for me to go... but they don't have poker anymore.

More on all of this tomorrow. Tonight there are bigger fish to fry in the form of Hurricane Katrina.

I've got WWL-TV streaming here on the computer. This is much better than watching coverage on the cable networks.

The cable networks are more polished and hard hitting. This local New Orleans station is providing the kind of news people there need.

Carl Arredondo, who I remember from The Weather Channel, is their chief meteorologist. He's pretty solid.

I just watched another met do a fascinating explanation of the radar display. There's no time for this except on New Orleans TV where tonight, there's nothing but time!

I know what the forecasters are thinking... the local guys and the PhD's at the Hurricane Center. Am I right? Did I miss anything?

Forecasters have spent the last few days scaring the living... well, you know... scaring people. Now they have a moral dilemma.

If the forecast comes true, people get hurt (maybe die) and property loss is great. If they're wrong, they become the goat. "Why did you make us leave? For this?"

Snow forecasts are similar, but the downside to this is so much greater. This really is a life and death forecast. And, accuracy of track to the degree people want and a good intensity forecast are beyond the current state of the art.

We can be close. We cannot get it exactly right - ever, except maybe by accident.

Tonight I spoke with a friend in the Miami area. She had been through Hurricane Katrina last week when Katrina was a 'minimal hurricane'. She only got her power back today. She still has no phone service.

New Orleans will be hit so much harder.

She also said, fill up the car tonight. Gasoline prices will skyrocket tomorrow. I'm afraid she's right on that forecast.