Over the past few days I've commented on some of the wide swings in the forecast for Hurricane Katrina. Now, it looks like the swings have stopped.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS HARDLY MOVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH THE NEW FORECAST BASICALLY JUST UPDATES. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS AT MOST 90 MILES... SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
Is this the meteorological kiss of death? Is the Hurricane Center patting itself on the back too soon?
The satellite presentation is massive with a well defined eye. This is still a devastating forecast for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
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