This Snow Will Disappoint

My last entry got a pretty nasty comment from one reader/viewer. I leave it up (it’s my site… I could hit delete) because I never want to forecast without thinking of the downside to a bad forecast.

state street slush.jpgThis will still be a significant snowfall but the reality versus the forecast will disappoint many. As much as I’d like to blame the computers which led me astray it is my responsibility solely. I’m the one who says he can see into the future. I’ll take the blame.

Surface temperatures near the shoreline have kept accumulations down. I’m surprised it’s still above 32&#176 down here. That will, unfortunately, present a big ice problem later tonight.

Upstate the snow was late to start–very late. I mentioned that in my middle-of-the-night post, but it was delayed even beyond what I said there.

My last entry got a pretty nasty comment from one reader/viewer. I leave it viewable (it’s my site… I could hit delete) because I never want to forecast without thinking of the downside to a bad one.

If there was anything I could do to forecast more accurately, I would. Sometimes we just get to experience the current limits of science first hand.

23 thoughts on “This Snow Will Disappoint”

  1. So then why is the NWS still saying that the storm hasn’t really revved up yet, the blizzard conditions will hit around 6pm and we’re still in line to get around 18 inches before it’s all said and done? Their latest forecast discussion was only just posted a half hour ago … what information do you have that they dont? I’m genuinely curious.

  2. Not much you can do, Geoff. we have really been at Mother Nature’s mercy so far this fall and winter. The snow is coming down at a good clip here in Manchester as of now (1446 – 2:46 p.m.) and it’s 33 degrees.

    I think forecast will just CHANGE slightly. Gil and others have said NYC is seeing 3 inches an hour – some of that may reach us up here.

    Always remember, until forecasting becomes an EXACT SCIENCE, all you guys can do is make your best prediction. The rest is in the hands of Mother Nature.

  3. So how much snow is expected for Stamford? So far we have nearly 9 inches and the NWS says we will recieve 15-20 inches of total accumulation. I heard the second part of the storm (the blizzard part) hasn’t even started yet. Are you saying it’s over already?

  4. Geoff, don’t worry too much about it. Channel 8 is more often right than it’s wrong regarding weather. And, for those of us that stayed home, it was ultimately our decision to do so. I think the public (us) needs to just reflect on the fact that the weathermen/women use their tools the best that they know how, just like all of us do in our jobs — we give it our best shot every day. No one of us is perfect every day at work. When was the last time a major corporation exactly forecasted its earnings for the year? When was the last time the government accurately forecasted the deficit? Just a couple of reasons why the stock market reacts so violently sometimes. Anyhow, it looks like its starting to pick up a bit here as of 3PM……

  5. I’m sure the 3 affiliate stations are under a certain pressure to sensationalize weather news so they can create sound bites and be “Connecticut’s Storm Leaders”.

    We switched to WTNH weather because Geoff seemes to have the most level headed forecasts.

    Better luck next time.

  6. To the last commenter –

    I know that is prevailing wisdom, but there’s no upside to hyping a storm. Honest. Believe me, going through one day like today will keep anyone from ever hyping the weather… and this isn’t my first time to the rodeo.

    I speak on behalf on my friends and colleagues at Channel 8 and the other Connecticut TV station as well.

  7. Geoff,

    I almost fell off my chair with how you started the news this evening saying you got it wrong. That’s why we switched to WTNH. I’m betting you guys have a constant tug of war with the marketing people WRT hyping weather — but as a team, you guys keep a good balance. Thank you.

  8. WoW. This storm is windy now. 5:51pm.

    But man…. The Uniysis website GFS showed exactly this all week. I think you guys sometimes dream up stuff that just isn’t there. But I differed to you prediction, and burned half a vacation day. Oh well. better to be safe then sorry.

    But it happens. I think channel 3 is by far the worst at predicting weather.

  9. The roads down here on the Shoreline were treacherous from as early as 9:00 am; the totals might not have been as high as originally thought, but keeping people off the streets was a good plan.

    I can’t imagine how difficult a job meteorology must be; the data we have currently compared to the the number of years that the world has been around has to be statistically insufficient. Data models are in their infancy.

    Things have improved dramatically in my lifetime. The blizzard of 78 was a surprise – it’s rare that we get a significant snow event that we weren’t expecting now. I think that all that weathermen can do is work with the tools provided, and try to improve them along the way.

    While I enjoy watching some of the other weather stations from time to time for entertainment value, WTNH does the best job (in my opinion) in predicting the difficult and varied Connecticut weather. Don’t lose heart, Geoff – I appreciate all that you folks do.

  10. Can someone answer me one question? Why do people flock to the stores prior to a storm? Is it there normal shopping day? Or are they worried that the might not have enough milk for the 6 hours they might not be able to drive. People in CT are ridiculous.

    We don’t live in the time of the blizzard of 78′ anymore. People get realistic.

  11. Geoff,

    I feel for you taking personal responsibility for the forecast. I just wanted to let you know that I had half of my staff work from home and the other half leave before noon. Inconvenient beats putting my employees in harms way due to a storm being predicted to produce 3 inches and actually being 2 feet. Also, as you said the storm isn’t over 😉

    I am sure with your experience you won’t let this get to you too much personally. After all, the National Weather Service is still sticking by their guns with the amounts…

  12. Geoff, I really don’t see any need to apologize or feel bad. The computers weren’t wrong. They crunched their models correctly. From what I can learn of the GFS model and others, they are remarkable physics based descriptions of micro phenomena, which have been aggregated massively (the AMS often reminds us to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.) I don’t believe these highly specified models of micro events are necessarily accurate when aggregated into the GFS. A model relying on relatively simple time series based

    extrapolation of surface radar data tempered with some upper air observations turned out to be more accurate. Oh wait – that’s the other GFS model: “After all these years I can see the numeric data and visualize the result.” Don’t blame the carpenter.

  13. I THINK YOU ARE BEING TO HARD ON YOURSELF – I CAN TELL BY WATCHING YOU TONIGHT YOU ARE BUMMED OUT AND ARE NOT YOURSELF . CHEER UP – ITS NO BIG DEAL – AND IF YOUR BOSSES ARE MAD -TOUGH- YOU TELL THEM WE ALL WATCH CHANNEL 8 TO SEE YOU AND DOC. MEL. SO WITHOUT YOU GUYS THEY WOULD BE DONE. NO ONE BLAMES THE WAITER IF THE STEAK IS TOUGH DO THEY ? SO DON’T SHOOT THE MESSENGER IS WHAT IT BOILS DOWN TO – WE ALL THINK YOU DO A GREAT JOB JEFF – SO SMILE AND DON’T BE UPSET. YOU DID GOOD!!! HOW CAN YOU TELL EXACTLY WHERE A STORM WILL END UP – ITS LIKE TRYING TO TRACK A TWISTER AT TIMES. WELL THATS ABOUT IT – BUT PLEASE CHEER UP !–OH I LOVE YOUR SUITS THEY ARE COOL.

  14. That was the first time I have ever seen a meteorologist apologize in my life! It was certainly not the first or 100th time I have seen a weather report way off the mark. It happens. Please don’t beat yourself up over it. You have earned a loyal viewer here. Apology more than accepted!

  15. No one has explained to my why people flock to the stores during a storm?

    I mean other than your normal shopping day, why wouldnt you have enough food?

    I trust channel 8 a lot more than other channels. Most weatherman are communications majors that use pig spleens and copy and paste off the national weather service.

  16. Don’t worry Geoff! Remember, it’s Connecticut! Dr. Mel’s book tells it all. You and the WTNH staff have a loyal following. You are accurate and always try to teach something in each forecast which is great for kids (and adults too). Thank you for all of your hard work and interesting blog postings.

  17. I was so astounded by your apology on air this evening that I rewound, paused the DVR and had my husband come in from the kitchen to see it. Neither of us felt it was necessary in the slightest. Much better to be safe than sorry and I for one wouldn’t have wanted to be on the roads today. It wasn’t as though not a flake of snow fell, which I can clearly remember happening on snow days back when I was in school 20 years ago. You’re still my favorite weather person!

  18. Geoff, No need to apologize. Your tried your best. Channel 8 is by far the best station for accuracy in Connecticut. I would not trust any other channel. Keep up the great work.

  19. Thank you for apologizing Geoff. As an hourly paid employee I didn’t get paid and was furious. That being said I think the tone of weather reporting in CT needs to change when it comes to snow, more like your reports of rain. Being from upstate NY, and a place where it snowed every day, all winter, I can attest that the weather people would just give us the odds. They don’t act as on-air advisors to the superintendents of school, they don’t tell people what they should or shouldn’t do. Life goes on. Here in CT. when it rains you say “we have a 60% chance of rain” but when it snows weather reporters in CT are quick to use declarative statements. Friends in broadcast tell me their stations earn money off the cancellations (sponsors of cancellations) as well as ad pricing increases and there is incentive in the business for this doom and gloom. I hope that’s not the case. Meteorology is as much an art as it is a science, please use language that treats it as such.

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