Is There Bias In Forecasting Hurricane Earl?

My friend Bob at Florida State took all the official fixes for Earl (since Earl became a tropical depression through this evening) and plotted them on a map. Then he added the official Hurricane Center forecast. Click the map on the left to make it large enough to read.

There is an unfortunate inconsistency to this data. In nearly every case Earl tracked west of the forecast!

If this remains the case Earl snuggles a little closer to Connecticut than has been said. Not good!

The Hurricane Center is populated with some of the smartest minds in tropical weather. Hopefully they’ll catch on or there’s a method to their madness I just don’t see.

3 Responses to “Is There Bias In Forecasting Hurricane Earl?”

  1. Jim says:

    My cynical side says this is for economic reasons. With a hurting economy, the coast needs all the tourism it can handle. The last thing state govt.’s want to see is folks canceling plans left and right and then have Earl stay out to sea. I hope this isn’t the case.

  2. alexey says:

    How does this disparity between predicted and actual tracks compare to previous hurricanes?

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