A Scarier Irene Scenario Comes Into View

The ECMWF weather prediction model which I wrote about a few days ago is closely guarded. Unlike our NOAA computer models here in the states the ECMWF output is sold for a high price. Only a very low-res output is available… and available later than just about everything else. That has just changed.

The smart money says the Europeans want to share their expertise in this time of great need–aka Hurricane Irene. Thanks. Gesture appreciated.

The bad news is the ECMWF paints the scariest picture yet of our run-in with Irene and makes me wonder if I was premature in my last post touting the Hurricane Center’s shift to the east. Actually here’s what the Hurricane Center now says:

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH… WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST…AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL…THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

If ECMWF is right Hurricane Irene will slide up the Jersey Shore, over Newark Airport (give-or-take), near White Plains and then north. We will get blasted. New York City will get even more. Flooding waters over Kennedy Airport or into the New York City subways are certainly possible.

It’s not the time to panic or take drastic action. It is the time to make sure you’ve got a plan and keep your wits about you.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope this storm blows quietly to sea. I just can’t rely on that being the scenario that comes true.

15 Responses to “A Scarier Irene Scenario Comes Into View”

  1. DorisC says:

    From your lips to Irene’s ears!!! Please Irene….go east!

  2. Donna says:

    Thanks, Geoff for the update. I’m hoping for that eastward move, too!

  3. This is certainly a worse case scenario. What people don’t realise is the NYC subway requires constant pumping if the power were to go out, they have back up generators but they can only pump so long. Certain covered up rivers would start flowing again. I hope for everyone’s sake the earlier models are more correct and it heads east, unfortunately though that Euro model has been very accurate this year and people have been touting it for its remarkable accuracy.

  4. Ugh, now I’m officially worried and preparing a list and planning what to do with the lawn furniture.

  5. Cynthia says:

    Oh man Geoff ..heard Storm is up to a Category 2 now…not good , not good at all for Connecticut & tri-state area….we are going to get blasted. I know people who actually are looking forward to this, young first time hurricane kids who are saying stupid things like “yay bring it on” …how ignorant they are…God help us is all I can say..

  6. Diane says:

    EWWWWW!!!!! Please say it isn’t.dang! Can’t trust WTNH any more. The further east this storm goes, the better. When my road floods, it floods at both ends. Good thing I’m on a hill. Both ends of the road dip down so all the water collects there making it impossible to get through when it floods.AND gets better; each end is in a different town!

  7. Mike says:

    Geoff,

    Any links on where to find the ECMWF model now that it is “free”?

    -Mike

    P.S. Making plans now to get the airplane out of KHVN to parts West!

  8. Felix says:

    If Irene follows the consensus track, it will remain over warm/warmish water for a while
    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

  9. Keep us posted Geoff. I have vacant listings that I will be checking on and being in Milford on the coastline doesn’t bode well with that new projection of yours!

  10. Mr. POSSLQ says:

    I have relatives in southeastern CT, and I am wondering if they should prepare for more of a Gloria scenario (windier) or Bob scenario (rainier). Either way, I’m hoping they prepare for the worst. This storm looks nasty.

  11. Dan says:

    I’m a follower of both Geoff and his former WTNH colleague Matt Scott. Both prepare very intelligent weather forecasts and models. One thing I take away from what Matt says is: “Prepare, don’t scare.” Yes, there is a hurricane on the way, but there is no need for mass hysteria as WTNH’s new crop of so-called “meteorlogists” would like you to believe. Yes, it may be in your best interest to go out and buy essential supplies (water, canned goods, batteries, etc), but do it at your leisure. If everyone rushes out to buy supplies at the same time, there simply won’t be enough to go around and stores won’t have the time to replenish.

    My hurricane resume includes Gloria, which was the worst to hit CT in the last 30 years. Stocking up on basics, using common sense, and keeping your wits are the best way to prepare for what is coming our way.

    • Michelle says:

      Dan,

      I actually stopped watching WTNH, the new “meteorologists” LOVE to terrify people, are almost always wrong and there is a little to much um ” T & A ” happening for my taste, this is news people not a beauty pageant!

  12. Bob P. says:

    I really hope that Irene blows east of us. Either way I will have a plan for my family and I.

  13. Doris says:

    I am terrified of this. My home has major windows in it…major! They have been able to sustain 70mph winds, but I don’t know what will happen in this kind of scenario…and I really don’t want to find out! I think I’ll get my water bottle and blood pressure pills and go hide in a dark corner of my basement until it all blows over. Say it isn’t so, Geoff!

  14. Kevin says:

    Once it really hits the curve of the Florida/Carolina coast, it SHOULD veer East. ;-)

    They can send a man to the moon, so why can’t someone invent something to kill off hurricanes?

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