Sandy Remains An Impressive Threat

Saturday afternoon. Pajamas. Kitchen table. Laptop. Worried look.

I’m scared I’m right. I’m scared I’m wrong. The meteorologist’s conundrum.

Each and every aspect of Sandy’s impact on Connecticut looks worse than anything I’ve seen before and I’ve been forecasting here 28 years.

With the time frame for Sandy’s arrival getting shorter there’s more guidance to look at. Some projections only go out 72 hours. I didn’t need them until now.

A huge concern is the shoreline. Water will pile up in the Sound before Sandy gets here. As the storm approaches windblown waves will form on top of that temporarily elevated sea level. At the same time the full moon will bring higher than normal tides!

The high tide at New London Monday evening is now forecast five feet above what’s on the tide tables. In Bridgeport the high tide will be seven feet above. In both cases the high tide will be broader and longer than usual as storm surge builds.

If tides come as now projected, Bridgeport breaks the record high tide measured during the Hurricane of ’38!

Inland and shoreline will experience enough wind to bring down trees, power lines and do structural damage. If you live on a hill or in a high rise building you will get more wind than folks closer to sea level.

This would be a bad time to visit New York City. Windows will blow out showering streets with glass. The subways might flood, bringing salt water to the rails and electrical infrastructure.

There will be plenty of rain, but inland flooding will be limited, not widespread.

Don’t let the storm’s position west of us fool you. In Irene, which barely grazed Litchfield County, our strongest winds were closer to the Rhode Island border! Hurricane Sandy is not a typical hurricane (understatement there) and will not act like one. The strongest winds won’t be limited to the area near the center.

The latest Hurricane Center track shows landfall in Southern Delaware late afternoon or evening on Monday&#185.

That last sentence does Hurricane Sandy (it’s been elevated to hurricane status again) a disservice! This hybrid storm will cover such a large area that the exact time or point of arrival aren’t important.

As was the case last night, I think the Hurricane Center landfall is too far south. Somewhere near Atlantic City, NJ is where I’d place it and where the model consensus places it. However, the last paragraph applies here too. The exact spot is inconsequential.

The wind will start ramping up Sunday. Our peak wind in Connecticut will happen Monday evening. We’ll stay gusty and blustery through Tuesday afternoon.

We probably won’t see hurricane force sustained winds, though there is a chance for a few hurricane force gusts. Remember, Irene affected Connecticut as a tropical storm and caused over 700,000 outages!

Sandy is a storm of great concern. The potential for damage or even loss of life is high. If you protect yourself and reduce your exposure to risk you should be OK.

If you’re on the shoreline and asked to evacuate, please do so immediately. Escape routes can flood or be blocked very quickly.

Play it safe. I am paid by the viewer.

¹ – A friend notes the NHC published track is misleading:

nhc getting lots of shit not because of the actual landfall point but b/c they don’t have 60 and 84hr points which would show central NJ landfall. As it is it’s very deceiving, dangerously so. and TWC shows it to everyone

17 thoughts on “Sandy Remains An Impressive Threat”

  1. What is the anticipated impact for the well-inland towns? I live in Ellington but all the hype is about the waves and wind down on the shore. What is the reality for Hartford & Tolland counties?

      1. From the blog: Inland and shoreline will experience enough wind to bring down trees, power lines and do structural damage.

        1. Thanks for the clarification. I read that line in your post but “inland” seem’d like an ambiguous term. I assumed from context you were talking about a few miles “inland” from the direct coast.

  2. OK, so I’ve been going along with everything you’ve said and not getting too worried until I read this sentence, ” If you live on a hill or in a high rise building you will get more wind than folks closer to sea level.” That one is just a wee bit scary since I’m on the 10th floor of a 17 story high rise which is on a hill. So, perhaps this actually will be a wild ride.

    I’m praying for all those folks who are actually on the shore line. As Geoff has said, if they tell you to evacuate, do it. It’s the difference between living and not living. Your things can always be replaced. Your life cannot.

    1. I would listen to Diane K. if you live on a hill in a high rise, I would definately take any instructions given by the local authorities. Iam a pretty good swimmer, but this is somewhat out of the ordinary. I know one thing, I can’t stand sitting around waiting. You tend to hear different opinions from the TV weather people.I have tied down, brought in,took down everything that I can think of because here the houses are pretty close together. I don’t want my wind chimes ending up in someones living room. But what Diane said was a scary thought, and what makes things worse here is that we are NOT use to dealing with the severity of storms that have the potential of flattening your house. The other stunning thing is its been one year since we had a storm of”lesser magnitude” but at the same time. How often does that happen!!!!! well I guess I’ll sit here and wait, good luck to everyone, please stay well and God Speed.

  3. OK … so if high tide in my shoreline town is nominally 5 feet or 5 and change, and I am between New London and Bridgeport … looking at an additional 5-7 feet of storm surge tide … and the first floor of my house, 100 feet from the shoreline, I’m told is 12.5 feet of elevation … what do you think?

    I had done some research last year — and 12.5 feet looked pretty safe. Irene gave us 9 … we had 3+ feet to spare. How *much* worse are we looking at, for storm surge?

    1. Connie – I can’t say. The shape of the seabed and shore make a huge difference. It will probably be significantly higher than you’ve ever seen it.

  4. Just great. “This would be a bad time to visit New York City. Windows will blow out showering streets with glass. The subways might flood, bringing salt water to the rails and electrical infrastructure.” I was supposed to fly home to BDL via MDW on Tuesday, but also bought tix from there to LGA as I have NYC meetings beginning Weds eve. Wonderful bonus of flying SWA. Even if I get to LGA, I wonder if I can hitchhike through broken glass and darkened traffic lights to Manhattan Wednesday afternoon. :~)

  5. what do you thing about Gales Ferry right outside the Subase in Groton any worry for concewrn or are we just too far away from the water for it to matter.

    1. From the blog: Inland and shoreline will experience enough wind to bring down trees, power lines and do structural damage.

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