48 Hours From Sandy

Hurricane Sandy is less than two days away. It is a major threat to our state. Don’t think that kind of weather doesn’t happen here, because it does and there’s every indication it will!

I am fearful. I suspect fear is now a common emotion in Connecticut. It is warranted.

What struck me today is how few surprises there were. Considering Hurricane Sandy has a structure like no other storm we’ve seen and is taking a path unlike any I’ve experienced, the computer guidance has been amazingly consistent.

Consistent model agreement implies the computers have properly latched onto Sandy’s salient features.

What’s come into sharper focus is the potential for shoreline flooding. If the guidance is right this will be a coastal inundation of historic proportions. The damage and destruction will be the most seen since the Hurricane of ’38, maybe more!

Starting Sunday the tide will begin to rise and never really fall until sometime Tuesday. Late Monday, Bridgeport’s high tide is forecast 8 feet above the tide table projection. At New London it will be 6 feet higher than expected. We’re likely to see water well inland in many shoreline towns.

If you live near the beach just assume now you will have to leave. The area of evacuation will be more widespread than in past storms.

You don’t want to ride this one out. You don’t want to head to the beach for photos either. Escape routes will go from passable to blocked in seconds.

Inland we’ll miss the worst of the rain. That’s destined for points south of us.

We will see a long duration of very strong winds. We don’t have as many leaves as August, but the wind speed and duration could make up for that in bringing down trees and power lines.

I read a quote earlier that United Illuminating (New Haven area power supplier) is expecting 70% of its customers to lose electricity.

The 00z GFS still shows landfall on the Jersey Shore late Monday evening. From there Sandy heads inland, then southwest. That’s new, but changes little!

If the GFS is right we start seeing destructive winds early Monday afternoon through Tuesday late morning. That’s shoreline, inland, everywhere. And if you’re on a hill or in a tall building your wind will be stronger.

The map at the top of this entry is the projected peak wind a few hundred feet off the ground through Tuesday morning. It is reflective of how strong isolated gusts might be. I saw Dan Amarante on FoxCT tonight with a map showing some wind gusts at hurricane strength.

You should now be well along in your storm preparations. There’s no reason to be harmed by Hurricane Sandy as long as you play it safe. Heed warnings. Follow evacuation orders. Stay out of harm’s way.

I’m back to work Sunday. We’ll have lots of coverage on FoxCT (and some extra coverage on WCCT Channel 20 and online).

Personally, I hope you choose us as your source. Even if you don’t, make sure you stay informed. Things change. I don’t want you caught flat footed.

Stay safe. Protect your family. Protect yourself. Be smart.

We’ll all have stories to tell later.

3 Responses to “48 Hours From Sandy”

  1. DorisC says:

    Geoff, I have been watching you and Rachel through out this mess. Thank you so much for your continued updated blogs. I have been sharing them on my FB wall, and on Hamden HS alum wall “You know you are from Hamden If” Hopefully with all the advance warning, people will take heed and be prepared!
    We have already been receiving update’s from our town via phone and email regarding closings and voluntary evacuations……A little bit more to do in the yard tomorrow morning, and then we will take a breath and wait…..

  2. Susan Cooper says:

    Scary stuff indeed!! I will be following your forecast Geoff. I hope you don’t mind if I say that the East Haven High School will open on Sunday at Noon as a pet friendly shelter. The Humane Society of the United States is providing up-to-the-minute information on pet friendly shelters, evacuations roots and more

  3. Susan Cooper says:

    Oh my – I must be stressed!! *evacuation routes

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