As The Models Turn

What was the phrase yesterday? Carved in chocolate pudding? That’s how these winter storms are always modeled. I recognize the Christmas Eve system from yesterday, but it’s not quite the same.

The 00z NAM is in. The 00z GFS is dribbling out, one three hour step at a time.

The NAM looks perfect if you’re dreaming of a… Just enough snow for Christmas morning without being a major pain!

Alas, I never depend on the NAM.

The 00z GFS is a little warmer. The 850mb 0&#176c line is right on the Connecticut shore. The NAM places it south of Long Island.

85mb 0&#176c (around 5,000 feet) is a good benchmark for the rain/snow line. That’s why it’s looked at

The Euro won’t be in for a while, but looking back at the 12z run it’s cold enough for snow, but there’s not enough to register on the maps I’m using which have an inch per three hour threshold.

So, where does this leave us? No forecast is ever 100%, but I’ll stick with yesterday’s call with some minor tweaks.

The precipitation arrives late Christmas Eve. It should be all snow inland with a few mixed periods on the shoreline.

Don’t expect much, maybe a few inches!

Don’t expect a long duration. The snow ends Christmas morning.

Oh… and that storm later in the week now looks like rain.

That’s the forecast from a guy in pajamas.

28 thoughts on “As The Models Turn”

  1. Really appreciate “Pajama Guy’s” forecast. Liking “no frills just facts”…happy that hubby won’t be shoveling much on Christmas morning!!!!

    1. Yes, much like Boston has the old Hancock tower lights to forecast the weather, Geoff could have special socks for special weather events. It could be, “Today’s Fox Sox are ___”.

  2. What’s the liklihood of the midweek storm turing to a snow event? I understand there’s a possiblity of snow next weekend? I understand if 24-48 hours is like carving in pudding then mid week or next weekend is like carving in chocolate milk but I need some hope of measurable snow. Thanks! πŸ™‚

  3. So glad to have a forecast that is reliable. I know that there are people who pay to publish their own books…too bad you can’t rent a nightly spot and do the weather for your loyal viewers Geoff. πŸ™ But this is better than nothing- looking forward to more “jammie casts”

  4. Thanks for this I’ve missed my Geoff Blog πŸ™‚ a nice Christmas treat and snow as well for christmas day….. Something we never got in England. Apparently that’s all Charles Dickens fault this ‘White Christmas’ thing. When he was born in 1812 it snowed every year on Christmas day for 8 years, which is why in every one of his novels it snows on Christmas…….

  5. Yay!!!! FOX in SOX !!!!!! On the Jammy Cam……great to have you back……even if I am in Florida and your forecast doesn’t include us…..but maybe you could give us a look if you have the time….???

  6. As a guy who loves lists, talking to the guy who’s been tracking local data for an impressively long time, would you like to put together a year-by-year review of whether or not our Connecticut Christmasaes have been white since you’ve been living here? It might be fun (and informative) to see how often that picture postcard situation comes true.

  7. Thank you! Happy holidays! Happy to see you back in touch. I hope youre wearing your traditional Santa hat as you always do this clo
    se to Christmas….even if it is with your pj’s!!

  8. Thanks for the update! This is perfect for me because I don’t watch the news/weather on TV (just never have) so forecast away for us!

  9. Yup, Fox in Sox works for me! Is that rather like the Cat in the Hat? Thanks for the forecast – it’s great to have you back – and jammies are fine too. Jammin’!

  10. Yea for FOX IN SOX!! Thanks for the forecast Geoff. Hope this message finds you, Helaine and Doppler happy and healthy. (Your daughter too.) Merry Christmas to all of you and best wishes for a much happier and better New Year! πŸ™‚

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