As The Models Turn

What was the phrase yesterday? Carved in chocolate pudding? That’s how these winter storms are always modeled. I recognize the Christmas Eve system from yesterday, but it’s not quite the same.

The 00z NAM is in. The 00z GFS is dribbling out, one three hour step at a time.

The NAM looks perfect if you’re dreaming of a… Just enough snow for Christmas morning without being a major pain!

Alas, I never depend on the NAM.

The 00z GFS is a little warmer. The 850mb 0°c line is right on the Connecticut shore. The NAM places it south of Long Island.

85mb 0°c (around 5,000 feet) is a good benchmark for the rain/snow line. That’s why it’s looked at

The Euro won’t be in for a while, but looking back at the 12z run it’s cold enough for snow, but there’s not enough to register on the maps I’m using which have an inch per three hour threshold.

So, where does this leave us? No forecast is ever 100%, but I’ll stick with yesterday’s call with some minor tweaks.

The precipitation arrives late Christmas Eve. It should be all snow inland with a few mixed periods on the shoreline.

Don’t expect much, maybe a few inches!

Don’t expect a long duration. The snow ends Christmas morning.

Oh… and that storm later in the week now looks like rain.

That’s the forecast from a guy in pajamas.

28 Responses to “As The Models Turn”

  1. Evi says:

    Really appreciate “Pajama Guy’s” forecast. Liking “no frills just facts”…happy that hubby won’t be shoveling much on Christmas morning!!!!

  2. Stacy McKenney says:

    Thanks Geoff, great to have you back!!!

  3. linda says:

    I think you should wear funny socks, then you could could be Fox in Sox with the weather, lol. Thanks for the update.

    • Dianne Z says:

      Yes, much like Boston has the old Hancock tower lights to forecast the weather, Geoff could have special socks for special weather events. It could be, “Today’s Fox Sox are ___”.

  4. Tara says:

    What’s the liklihood of the midweek storm turing to a snow event? I understand there’s a possiblity of snow next weekend? I understand if 24-48 hours is like carving in pudding then mid week or next weekend is like carving in chocolate milk but I need some hope of measurable snow. Thanks! :)

  5. Sheryl says:

    I like that; FOX in SOX!

  6. Muriel dushok says:

    So glad to have a forecast that is reliable. I know that there are people who pay to publish their own books…too bad you can’t rent a nightly spot and do the weather for your loyal viewers Geoff. :( But this is better than nothing- looking forward to more “jammie casts”

  7. Thanks for the update even from your pj’s! So do you have all the weather forecasting equipment in your home?

  8. ACR says:

    So; you have time for coffee Christmas afternoon, or are you going to be out getting Chinese food?

  9. ed Bowers (n1hsh) says:

    Thanks Geoff. Sounds like my annual christmas eve night light ride shouldn’t be a problem.

  10. David says:

    Thank you Geoff, any idea on the weekend?

  11. Robert says:

    Thanks for the update. I look forward to many more. Maybe you could get on a local access station.

  12. Simon W says:

    Thanks for this I’ve missed my Geoff Blog :) a nice Christmas treat and snow as well for christmas day….. Something we never got in England. Apparently that’s all Charles Dickens fault this ‘White Christmas’ thing. When he was born in 1812 it snowed every year on Christmas day for 8 years, which is why in every one of his novels it snows on Christmas…….

  13. Fran says:

    Yay!!!! FOX in SOX !!!!!! On the Jammy Cam……great to have you back……even if I am in Florida and your forecast doesn’t include us…..but maybe you could give us a look if you have the time….???

  14. As a guy who loves lists, talking to the guy who’s been tracking local data for an impressively long time, would you like to put together a year-by-year review of whether or not our Connecticut Christmasaes have been white since you’ve been living here? It might be fun (and informative) to see how often that picture postcard situation comes true.

  15. sandra says:

    Thanks, Geoff! Merry Christmas, and give some thought to the Fox in Sox idea! Lol-how cute! Hope Santa is good to Doppler-

  16. Mary L. says:

    Thank you! Happy holidays! Happy to see you back in touch. I hope youre wearing your traditional Santa hat as you always do this clo
    se to Christmas….even if it is with your pj’s!!

  17. I really like that FOX IN SOX – he ROCKS. Doppler over and out.

  18. Deb in QH says:

    Another vote for Fox in Sox!

  19. NancyB says:

    Thanks for the update! This is perfect for me because I don’t watch the news/weather on TV (just never have) so forecast away for us!

  20. Tom (W1TDP) says:

    WSOX is a radio station in Red Lion, PA. Somehow I don’t see Geoff moving to another cold climate.

  21. Jen Johnson says:

    The hub is DOT. Hope you are right and we don’t get too much precip. It is awful losing him pm Xmas!!

  22. Sandra Davis says:

    Would listen to you in pajamas any day over the majority of weather celebrities Geoff!!!!Merry Christmas!!

  23. meg says:

    Yup, Fox in Sox works for me! Is that rather like the Cat in the Hat? Thanks for the forecast – it’s great to have you back – and jammies are fine too. Jammin’!

  24. Marcia says:

    I too like the Fox in Socks moniker. I’m happy to see the blog back. I’ve missed it.

  25. Kim M says:

    Thanks Geoff for the update. You’re the best. Happy holidays and wishing you all the best in 2013.

  26. Kacy says:

    Yea for FOX IN SOX!! Thanks for the forecast Geoff. Hope this message finds you, Helaine and Doppler happy and healthy. (Your daughter too.) Merry Christmas to all of you and best wishes for a much happier and better New Year! :)

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