What was the phrase yesterday? Carved in chocolate pudding? That’s how these winter storms are always modeled. I recognize the Christmas Eve system from yesterday, but it’s not quite the same.
The 00z NAM is in. The 00z GFS is dribbling out, one three hour step at a time.
The NAM looks perfect if you’re dreaming of a… Just enough snow for Christmas morning without being a major pain!
Alas, I never depend on the NAM.
The 00z GFS is a little warmer. The 850mb 0°c line is right on the Connecticut shore. The NAM places it south of Long Island.
85mb 0°c (around 5,000 feet) is a good benchmark for the rain/snow line. That’s why it’s looked at
The Euro won’t be in for a while, but looking back at the 12z run it’s cold enough for snow, but there’s not enough to register on the maps I’m using which have an inch per three hour threshold.
So, where does this leave us? No forecast is ever 100%, but I’ll stick with yesterday’s call with some minor tweaks.
The precipitation arrives late Christmas Eve. It should be all snow inland with a few mixed periods on the shoreline.
Don’t expect much, maybe a few inches!
Don’t expect a long duration. The snow ends Christmas morning.
Oh… and that storm later in the week now looks like rain.
That’s the forecast from a guy in pajamas.