The Snow I Won’t Miss

New Year’s Night. 8:47 PM PST.

COD Meteorology    Numerical Model Data

There’s a storm on the way to New England. There are one or two major storms there during any snow season. This will be one.

I’ve been working the numbers. It’s fun to forecast. I like maps, graphs and numbers. I can do it sitting in my chair here in Orange County.

I don’t miss the anxiety of forecasting. I know my fellow meteorologists sweat these out too. No one wants to be wrong.

At this hour radar from the Northeast is showing snow over Connecticut. Bradley’s been reporting light snow for over an hour. Most of the state is still quiet. The center of the upcoming storm is over Arkansas!

Here’s the setup: The low moves from Arkansas to the Northeast. A Canadian high will block the low’s northerly progress, but also provide an ample supply of cold air.

New England’s geography takes over.

As the low moves over the relatively mild (compared to land) ocean it will explode! A low’s strength is measure by its central pressure. The pressure will drop like a rock!

The prediction shows a rapid fall from ~1016mb to ~985mb. That will enhance both precipitation and wind! More of each.

Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a linear storm. There will be a long period of light snow, then the main course.

Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers and flurries. A few inches will accumulate during the day. If you have to drive you probably will, though you shouldn’t. The wind will being picking up.

After dark, windblown snow becoming heavy at times. Strong northeasterly winds. You’ll want to be safely home before this bad boy gets going.

Some areas might see a foot. 5-8″ will probably be the average.

The snow ends Friday morning. It will be replaced by bitterly cold air with many spots dipping below zero Saturday morning.

You don’t want to know what it will be like here in SoCal tomorrow.

21 Responses to “The Snow I Won’t Miss”

  1. Groms says:

    Thanks Geoff! Happy New Year.

  2. Susie says:

    I’m one of those old New Englander’s who love snow. It’s beautiful and brings back memories of a childhood full of skating and sledding. Life has changed and so has the weather – we didn’t whine about snow 30-40 yrs ago the way people do now – but then again, back at that time – businesses would close to keep their employees safe. Now the almighty buck rules. I will love watching the snow fall.. but I’ll also be praying that everyone is safe.

  3. Carole says:

    I wish I was in warm So. CA right now, where I don’t have to worry about the snow and cold temperatures.

    Geoff, please also write a report on the Rose Parade too. Please don’t mention the beautiful weather in the southwest. LOL

  4. Mixolydian25 says:

    The only one I follow since you left CT is Joe Bastardi. He’s good. But we still miss you here!

  5. Al Bruhn says:

    Thank-you Geoff BIG TIME for your EXCELLENT weather report easy to comprehend at 2am in the morning EAST COAST time. Now, I have WORK to do in prep for upcoming one of two storms each winter.

  6. Tiffany Rose says:

    We love what you do Geoff! Out of all the forecasts I have watched in the last 24 hours, I found yours to be the most pleasant and informative! I completely appreciate you taking the time to think of us back here in Connecticut! We miss you!

  7. DorisC says:

    Thanks Geoff!!! Some closings, but here in OS, the kiddies are going to school…maybe an early dismissal……..Friday, I bet they will be home!

  8. Jan says:

    Hi Geoff~ Thanks for the forecast! You are missing a messy winter in CT! We were fortunate to be away in a tropical/warm climate the month of Dec so when winter and snow came early to CT, we were glad to be away. We now believe we can understand what you are feeling, missing this storm, from CA. We all miss you. We would love to hear all about your day at the Rose Parade! How did you get tickets and how early did you have to get there? Thanks!

  9. Felcie says:

    I do miss your forecasts! Especially the easy to understand explanations of “why”

  10. Shirl says:

    Thank you so much for your forecast. My husband and I miss the educational details you always provide….we miss YOU! As for New England weather, I’d move in a second if my husband agreed….and my family came along! :D

  11. Ruth says:

    Thanks for the info and not “rubbing in” the SoCal info.

  12. Cindy says:

    Thanks for the storm update really miss the extras you would always add to your forecast I’m sure you are not missing the snow or cold weather! Just please don’t tell us how nice it is where you are for the next week LOL !

  13. Denese says:

    Thanks, Geoff! I agree with some of the other commenters – it’s the “why” of storms that I miss getting and that sets up apart from the others. Thanks for continuing to keep us well-educated!

  14. Teresa Storer says:

    Just want to say thank you for your forecast – I don’t always trust the “newbies” on TV these days. Glad you are a tech junkie and like to figure out what we will get! Enjoy your warmth.

  15. Fran says:

    I follow your Northeast forecasts from Sunny “warmest Nov/Dec on record” Florida…family still lives in East Haddam and in PA….and want to keep informed…waiting for Parade Pictures…just know they will be the next bes
    t ting to being there…

  16. Barbara Sibley says:

    Geoff, cannot tell you how much we appreciate your continued weather casting for all your loyal followers who miss you and your intelligent and so informative no hype style. There is NO ONE out there now that has or could take your place. And YOU are the voice of reason-even from across the country-that we take as THE forecast, as we have for all the years Connecticut was privileged to have you in residence!!!!!!

    • Doreann says:

      Here! Here! Barbara. It’s so hard to not think of Geoff who was my staple for YEARS when it comes to weather reports. I am happy that Matt is on and Rachel is good too but Geoff add that extra finesse in his reports. Thank you Geoff for taken the time and putting the reports together for us. We all really appreciate it and don’t care was the big wigs think what the audience wants because obviously they don’t have a clue.

  17. Diane Roberts says:

    Thanks Geoff, Now I can believe what I am seeing out my window!
    Happy New Year to you and your family.
    Diane

  18. Caroline says:

    CT misses you! So…why does So Cal even need meteorologists?? lol ;)

  19. Neil S says:

    Spot on 4cast!!

  20. Susie2 says:

    Thanks Geoff! I’ll repeat what has been said…we miss the information and education you provided us with for years to help us understand the “why” of the weather. Wish you were still here….never doubt that CT misses you!

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