Winter Is Not Misseed

I’m looking at the 00Z GFS numbers for Connecticut. I remember this!

It was around this point every year that winter began to win our yearly battle. Not only is forecasting winter weather fraught with peril, I had to drive in that stuff–every storm!

The GFS says a little shy of a foot at New Haven. At Bradley, over six inches. These numbers are never exactly right. Bane of my existence.

People overvalue the accumulation forecast. It’s either under two inches, under six inches, or more. The impact of six inches or a foot are virtually the same.

The more important value is timing. That forecast has improved over time.

Snow by afternoon through early Wednesday. The snow will be accompanied by strong gusty winds which will create drifting. This should be powdery snow.

If you’re working Tuesday, consider coming home early.

I am typing this wearing shorts and a t-shirt.

15 Responses to “Winter Is Not Misseed”

  1. Cindy says:

    Yes your right after 6″ of snow it doesn’t matter until you get up to the 20″ mark Minot looking forward to any of it plus with the artic blast of cold this will
    Not be pretty ! I’m getting to Old to battle with winter but my kids and grand kids are here so moving is not an option. Thanks for your report I always felt you and Dr Mel did the best job with weather. Look forward to updated weather posts and as always your others too. Bidding you a wonderful snow and cold free night :-)

  2. JoAnn says:

    Geoff,
    I’m so jealous I hate the cold and the snow

  3. Carla says:

    Oh dear, I ‘almost’ feel bad that I am also in shorts and a t-shirt while reading this. I made the trek down from CT to our FL home for the next 2 weeks just in the nick of time I guess! Hopefully hubby won’t be too mad at me when I Skype with him on Wednesday from the pool. Oops, sorry hun.

  4. Jim says:

    I am reading this as I sit in central Florida don’t miss Connecticut at all

  5. Susie says:

    I grew up here in CT. I think snow is one of the most magical things ever. However, I concur that its best when everything shuts down – gives people a chance to slow down, hang out, cook and eat yummy food. I strive for that as best I can. Snow quiets my sometimes rough neighborhood and makes it look beautiful. That said, I’m grateful for forecasts like yours to tell me when I should be home by and what I have to do to protect my city chickens. I understand that so many like you don’t like it. But for some of us…it’s fun or beautiful or restful.

  6. Louise says:

    SIGH!!! I was scheduled to fly out of BDL Wednesday morning at 9 am on a non-stop to LAX to visit a dear friend in Anaheim. AA canceled the flight already and put me on connections into LAX at MIDNIGHT! A call to AA didn’t produce much better results, and there is nothing available into the suburban airports. I’m considering bagging it and departing Thursday, although this will significantly cut down my already short visit. It’s a good reminder of why I never travel in the dead of winter. Too many risks of this happening. (Funny how just a couple of days ago the forecast was for snow showers on Tuesday and a sunny but cold Wednesday.) Sigh!

  7. JAinsworth says:

    For those of us who are into winter sports, this is not so bad. The woods in winter are magical.

  8. Well I don’t have to shovel the snow. Live in Deep River, CT and am home with a blazing fire in the fireplace, food to cook and totally satisfied whether we get 5 inches or 10 inches. Then after this would love winter to start to go away temperature wise. We are in for killer chilling weather. Doesn’t help with oil bills is my only complaint.

  9. Rita says:

    That last line hurt!

  10. Denese says:

    I was going to thank you until I read the last line in your post! Not nice, Geoff. :)

  11. Alan says:

    Sure, rub it in!

  12. Doreann says:

    O’ everyone have a little thicker skin. He’s just teasing like a brother would…LOL. However! I certainly wouldn’t want to live where he is now with all those wildfire scares. All it takes is someone with a match to light up in the wind direction of his house. I would hate to live with that fearful thought all the time.

  13. Kate says:

    I’m with the group that enjoys the snow which is probably a good thing up here in the NW hills. No winter sports, pretty much hang out here at home for the duration, but I love to watch it snow. Wish it wouldn’t keep snowing overnight which limits the ability to watch it come down.

  14. Debbie Z says:

    It all looks so pretty until the plow comes through and buries the end of the driveway under a foot of gunk. Not fun to shovel at 0-dark-30 so you can get to work.

    Still miss your forecasts though, Geoff.

  15. ehl says:

    Thanks, geoff I cannot shovel anymore, bad back. It is almost impossible to find a teenager to shovel to.I guess they have bad backs to.

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