Another Look At Saturday’s East Coast Storm

YESTERDAY

weekend-snow

TODAY

snow-map2

I have been out-of-touch the past few weeks. My head has been buried deep within GrADS,

The Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) is an interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.

‘Easy’ would not be my adjective of choice.

I have been very lucky to receive expert GrADS help from former Action News Weather Watcher, Professor Bob Hart at FSU and Greg Senia in Shelton, Connecticut. Greg is a Facebook friend, a former viewer.

In an amazing piece of luck I stumbled upon a guy interested in the same arcane software on the same computer experimenter’s hardware, the $35 credit card size Raspberry Pi. And, Greg has skills!

Learning GrADS is allowing me to update last night’s forecast graphically with my modifying parameters unchanged. So, this is apples to apples. it is based heavily on the GFS.

My forecast also take compaction into account. I wrote about that last night.

Again this evening the system looks to be farther south than originally progged. My friend Peter Mokover in Ventnor Cty, NJ could get buried (Peter is reading this and saying, “Oy.”) with nearly a foot of snow.

If I was on TV in Connecticut tonight I’d be hedging my bet down just a little. From a practical standpoint four inches of snow and six inches of snow produce the same amount of grief. As a matter of pride I want to be right. This far out no one knows with any certainty — certainly not me.

This is why getting scared a week out makes no sense. This forecast isn’t yet stable.

Here’s what we know, a large system will be nearby. The most likely ‘go’ time is Saturday morning after sun up. Connecticut will get enough snow to keep most people inside, but not a back breaker crippling system. I wouldn’t want to be on a boat south of Long Island this weekend.

It’s a cause for concern, but don’t go nuts.

4 Responses to “Another Look At Saturday’s East Coast Storm”

  1. Matt in Branford: says:

    The good news is the track keeps getting pushed more south – as of tonight it looks like the storm will come off NC (with rain from VA Beach south and snow back into Western VA/MD/NJ/PA)…and then head due east out to sea. It looks like the Tri-State will be lucky to get 2 to 4 inches out of it.

    To be honest, we really can’t complain about this winter so far. No, it was not Florida, but in the NYC/CT/Northern NJ area we have had a good deal of nice days this December and January. This past Saturday was in the low/mid 50’s F (Central Park hit 55F). I was able to pull out some shrubs, clean out the garage, and due some other outdoor chores. With the pattern expected to get mild again next week into mid February…we really can’t complain too loud.

  2. Jill Losee says:

    Thank you… from what you taught us when you lived here tis where I was at also, but your explanation always adds some info and says WHY things are happening. Thanks for your forecasts, and even more for not treating your viewers like morons. Miss you always, but am very glad that you keep us in your thoughts and fill us in on your take on our larger events.

  3. Evi says:

    Ah, Geoff! My voice of reason from the patio! My take away – “don’t go nuts “. You still are and will always be my favorite meteorologist. I suffer terribly from anxiety and you always keep it real. Know that you are very much appreciated!

  4. Matt in Branford says:

    Just to keep you updated Geoff about what they are saying locally:

    It looks like the track keeps moving south. Now they (the 3 CT TV stations) are saying 1 -3 inches in northern CT….and 3 – 6 inches on southern CT. I know the snow fans get mad (lol)…but I can’t tell you how happy many other are! We have had no snowcover all winter here on the CT shore…and I hope it stays that way!.

    At lest where they are expecting the heavy snow in Washington DC/northern VA gets warmer quicker than points north. They are talking mid 50’s F next week in northern VA….so the snow won’t last long anyway.

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