Saturday’s East Coast Storm

When it comes to snow, my forecasts are usually among the least aggressive. In other words, I call for less snow.

I can’t be sure why. Each forecaster approaches the number differently. The amount of data is overwhelming. The right answer is always there hidden inside the pile of wrong answers.

Anyway, it works. No one is perfect and I certainly sweat every flake all-the-way to the ground, but my snow calling is pretty good.

As it turns out I am helped by a factor I never considered until recently, compaction. As soon as a pile grows it also begins to shrink. Crystals splinter and break. The snow begins to play Tetris.

Snow piles are larger when storms build gradually and fall off quickly. The same amount of snow, the same fluffiness of snow, can produce wildly differing accumulations. Inches of light snow can disappear into a compacting pile.

There are equations. Calc is involved. Thanks, I’ll let the machines do the grunt work. But this is a big deal.

Weather Service observers start fresh every six hours. They count more snow than you see because of their technique.

The map above shows my call for the New England weekend storm. It seems most likely the bulk of the storm will pass out-to-sea. The Jersey Shore will get clobbered.

By wake-up time Saturday Connecticut will already see a few inches on the ground with moderate to heavy snow falling.

My friends in Connecticut will probably accumulate around six inches where the snow’s allowed to pile up. You’ll get a little more on the shoreline and a little less on the UCONN campus.

I’ll be on the patio if you need me.

9 Responses to “Saturday’s East Coast Storm”

  1. Joe says:

    Should have had you sign my snow shovel when I had the chance. Nothing to do now but panic, buy as much bread and milk as I can, and STAY TUNED!!!

  2. Cindyono says:

    Thanks for this. I was hoping you would weigh in on this. I have seen the forecasts and been wondering what Geoff has to say. Glad you didn’t leave us out in the cold……. but you on your deck and us freezing, i may have to rethink that statement 😉

    • Doreann says:

      I know it’s funny but I am so glad you (Geoff) took the time to let your friends and fans in CT know what you think about this storm. My husband would ask me what does Geoff say about the storm even though he watches the local stations. He still trusts your forecasts. As for the sitting out on your deck, make sure you have a martini on me!

  3. Sue Matula says:

    Thanks for the heads up. I know everyone has a different take on this storm. I guess you can say it is what it is. Just wish it was a little warmer here.

  4. Mark Holden says:

    I love your explanation of compaction. For those of us in CT, remember the usual shopping list of one gallon of milk and one loaf of bread for each member of your household for each inch of snow in the forecast needs to be adjusted upward when using Geoff’s forecast. 😉

  5. Dennis says:

    I see a little green circle around New Haven. Does the model suggest more or less than six inches inside that?

  6. Doris Carlson says:

    Thanks Geoff!!!! Being on the shoreline we usually get less…..oh well!!!

  7. Alan Pierce says:

    Have a couple margaritas for me while your on the patio!

  8. Karen seeger says:

    Thank you Geoff ,
    A Thousand miles away and I still count on you for the weather report

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