The Internet Goes Zoom Zoom

AT&T PACE 5268 AC fiber modem

I made quite the stir on Facebook today. AT&T came to install their Gigapower Internet service today. It’s touted as 1,000 Mbps, a little faster than my equipment can handle.

Pretty fast, but limited by this older laptop.

Cox has been my main Internet provider. Recently service has gone downhill. What should be a :45 video upload to Nebraska often becomes nine or ten minutes. That pushes me past deadline.

The new service is multiple times faster than before. I suspect there’s enough overhead that my upload times will get better but not in lockstep with the new speed.

My old cable modem won’t work with AT&T’s fiber. The old modem/router comes out and a new one moves in. Settings will need to be adjusted.

All the equipment in my studio is interconnected. For simplicity I will change as little as I can get away with. That means manually configuring IP addresses and port forwarding on the new gear. To my machines the AT&T router should look like the Cox router… if I’m successful.

This is one of those jobs that could take 20 minutes or nine hours. I’ll have to plan the cutover time wisely.

Heading To Milwaukee

It’s a beautiful day today in SoCal. Bright sunshine. Mid-60°s and calm. You could get used to this.

And yet I’m excited to say Stef and I are heading to Milwaukee this Friday to see my dad, sister, brother-in-law, and so on down the line.

The average high during our trip is 29° the low 15°. Milwaukee has a serious wind problem too. The forecast is for rain–a long weekend of it.

But family is family. We’d like my dad to come here, but he’s just too frail. He’s mentally sharp but he needs to be the total package to travel.

On top of that there are babies and kids and nieces and a nephew — oh my.

Friday out. Monday back. There will be photos.

Yes, We Have Farms

Irvine, California, where I live, is expanding at an incredibly rapid pace. Thousands of homes (plus schools and other public works necessary) are being added every year as the population skyrockets–4% per year according the the city’s own website.

And yet Irvine still has farms and always will. That’s not an idle brag. We’ll always have farms because farms are using land no one else wants!

This farm is one of many sharing an easement for high tension power lines. These high voltage feeders are the only above ground power lines in the city.

That gives us farms a football field wide and a mile or two long! Welcome to SoCal. Everything grows here.

Chemo+2: Not That Bad

Today is the second day after chemo. On three of those second days the Gemzar dripped into my system 48 hours earlier brought me down. Imagine sleeping over 20 hours in one day accompanied by an upset stomach.

We scheduled my treatments to account for this. Thursday is chemo day. Saturday/Sunday are blocked off just in case.

It’s not going to make a difference for a while. This was my last chemo session before six weeks of radiation. There will be more, but not until spring.

I was a little tired this morning. I napped. I’m good.

I ate a grilled cheese and tomato sandwich lovingly prepared by H. Seriously, Helaine cannot make the pedestrian. She minds it carefully until the sourdough rye turns a beautiful gold and the cheese has melted across the tomato slices. It is a thing of beauty and then you bite in. Wow.

My day has gone well. Much better than anticipated. I’m smiling.

Need my strength for tomorrow. Big weather day in Nebraska. Four stations. On all day.

What I Told Them In Nebraska

For those who’ve never seen an ice storm, EVERYTHING gets coated. Forget about driving. Enough ice will bring down trees and power lines. This is not the same as sleet which falls as ice pellets.

I just sent an email to our reporters who’ll be covering the weather Sunday in Nebraska. An ice storm is coming and for parts of the state it will be very bad.

Hi Everyone –

Here’s where things stand tonight. The storm begins to enter Nebraska Sunday morning, moving in from Kansas. Raindrops will fall into subfreezing temperatures at ground level.

For those who’ve never seen an ice storm, EVERYTHING gets coated. Forget about driving. Enough ice will bring down trees and power lines. This is not the same as sleet which falls as ice pellets.

By noon the freezing rain should be lightly falling through our Southern Nebraska cities. The past few model runs have ‘favored’ the Grand Island area with the most ice, enough to do significant damage. Meanwhile Beatrice, Fairbury and the Missouri Rover cities see a bit less, but still substantial.

Columbus then Norfolk get the ice in evening. It should be lighter in Northeast Nebraska. Based on current guidance it looks under 1/4″, but pretty close.

Weather forecasts have improved greatly in my 30+ years, but this is a particularly gnarly forecast. Ice storms demand many more parameters be accurately predicted. A small shift in the middle of the atmosphere can bust a forecast. And it kills me!

By tomorrow the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model will pick up the storm. It updates every hour, looking at the next 24, with spatial resolution that’s a little crazy. It will guide me as we draw closer. It literally does the physics for individual raindrops (we call them hydrometeors) as they free fall through the atmosphere.

Be safe. It is easy for a storm like this to get ahead of you.

Questions?

Geoff

Ice Baby, Ice

Ice storms aren’t rare, but they are unusual. That’s because so many parameters in the atmosphere must be exactly right at the same time. For me it means extra forecasts to follow the drops and take their temperature from cloud to ground. A few degrees change anywhere in the atmosphere could mean sleet, snow or even rain. So many places to go wrong.

Now I remember why I hate winter. Winter weather forecasts! They are difficult, demanding and you don’t forget when I’m wrong.

You don’t. I live with it.

There is an especially difficult forecast coming this weekend for Nebraska and much of the Plains. A low pressure system moving in from the south will wedge a pocket of warm air above very cold air at ground level. The result is raindrops hitting the surface, freezing on contact.

It’s an ugly setup. The ice weight can bring down trees, power lines, (and my boss’s fear) even radio towers. It coats road surfaces eliminating most traction. You can’t drive on ice.

Ice storms aren’t rare, but they are unusual. That’s because so many parameters in the atmosphere must be exactly right at the same time. For me it means extra forecasts to follow the drops and take their temperature from cloud to ground. A few degrees change anywhere in the atmosphere could mean sleet, snow or even rain. So many places to go wrong.

A good ice storm forecast starts with a reliable QPF (quantatative precipitation forecast). It’s our Achilles heel. The morning and afternoon NAM model vary by a factor of six in how much liquid will fall over Norfolk, Nebraska. That’s not helpful.

A few days ago it looked like Grand Island might get all snow, easier to deal with than ice. Now they’re progged to get the most ice!

There are 66 forecast hours before this storms makes Nebraska. The precipitation just moved into the time domain of the NAM, so along with the GFS a chance for more numbers… more consensus or confusion. In the last 24 hours the HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) adds to the fun. They seldom all agree.

This is so confounding at times NOAA puts out bulletins with their advice on which model seems most trustworthy: when and where.

Sunday’s ice storm is likely. The question is who gets the most and will it rise to “State of Emergency” status or be much ado about nothing?