Hurricane Katrina

The Hurricane Center has just christened a tropical depression. Though it hasn't yet graduated to tropical storm or hurricane status, "we've already picked out a name" - Katrina.

I am concerned by Katrina because it is likely to head toward South Florida, a densely populated area and where my parents live!

It doesn't look like Katrina will be a major hurricane... but a minimal hurricane is enough for me.

You'll be reading a lot more about this storm on this site over the next few days.

When I called my folks yesterday to give them their "Katrina heads-up," I immediately heard the discomfort in my mom's voice. It's not that she didn't feel they could weather a hurricane. It's that she already has.

Even if it creates no significant damage, a hurricane is a major inconvenience. My mom and dad remember the days without power, phone and air conditioning. Who wants to repeat that?

She said they were prepared in the things you're supposed to have: lanterns, water, food, batteries.

I wish I could say they were off the hook. The definitely are not. The predicted track brings Katrina perilously close to Boynton Beach early Friday morning.

A hurricane is bad enough during the day. In the dark of night, it's worse.

The only good news is the hope Katrina will stay a minimal hurricane. Much of South Florida is built to easily survive a category one storm.

This isn't my last post on this storm.

I have been looking at the Miami NWS Nexrad's image of Katrina¹. Very interesting.

It doesn't have distinct hurricane features yet. There's no eye, as such. Still, I am seeing what looks like a center of circulation. It is becoming circular after its previous blob shape.

I think of all the observational tools, radar is best at this point. Satellites are interesting, but radar is so much closer to real time and rapidly updated.

¹ - Right now, that's just whatever's on the Miami radar. It was Katrina when this entry was originally posted.

I woke up and turned on the computer. The Miami radar showed Katrina closer than I expected. I think people in Florida are surprised it's this close this soon. A friend in South Florida says the Hurricane Center's personnel are on TV 'tap dancing'.

I called my folks. "Put down the hurricane shutters," I said. Hours later, the shutters were still up.

None of the neighbors had theirs down, my mom told me.

The shutters are down now. The wind is beginning to blow. The heaviest rain and wind are still to come.

Most likely they will not need the shutters, just as most likely I won't need my seat belt on the drive home tonight.

They are currently with phone service but without electricity. The no electricity thing is the part they didn't want to go through again.

The Hurricane Center says, don't fixate on the center line. How can you not?

Katrina made land around Hallandale Beach in Southern Broward County. Then, instead of heading west, it headed southwest. It's now in Central Dade County - in the swamp I believe.

I'll watch the news out of Florida tomorrow, and I expect to see angry people... unprepared people... because this tracked south of the line.

My guess, based on radar imagery, is we'll see 10"+ rain from around Miami Beach. Maybe more.

Katrina has left Florida. I'm not there, but I'm still betting there are lots of upset people in Dade County. The forecast track was too far north.

Now Katrina is in the Gulf of Mexico and intensifying. Already today NHC has shifted the probable Gulf Coast landfall 150 miles west.

That's not a sign of confidence.

For years I've heard how difficult hurricane forecasting is. I'm not disputing that. I'm just not sure it's any more difficult than any type of forecasting.

The problem is, every part of a hurricane forecast is critical. Many parts of my day-to-day forecast are not. I can get close and be considered right. I though 40% clouds, we had 60% - who cares? I figured .5" rain, we got .75" - who cares? The Hurricane Center doesn't get that free pass.

This storm will continue to hold my attention. There's actually 90º+ water in the Gulf. That's like gasoline near an open flame.

Earlier this afternoon, before the Hurricane Center issued its 5:00 PM update on Katrina, I sent an instant message to my friend Bob at FSU. I told him I was putting up a dollar that Katrina's forecast would be shifted left.

It was.

I had the exact same feeling tonight... and NHC moved it again.

Maybe feeling is the wrong word, because this isn't intuition or guesswork. I could see signs. The storm was refusing to make the predicted right turn. In fact, it was traveling south of west.

To the north there was some sort of convergence. Feeder bands from the hurricane were meeting something moving from the north. Clouds were showing up bright white - a sign they were developing vertically.

Whatever it was to the north, it would impede that right turn forecast at the Hurricane Center.

I'm sure I've said this before, but it's worth repeating. The best hurricane information is often contained in the forecaster's technical discussion. These really were meant to be 'internal use only' documents, but you can't do that when you work for the government.

In these the lead forecaster discusses what has gone into the latest forecast package. I'm sure it's very helpful at NHC after the hurricane season is over or whenever post mortems are done.

I'll attach tonight's at the end of this message so you can get a feel for yourself. This one was written by Dr. Lixion Avila, one of NHC's hurricane specialists. Four of the six specialists are Ph D's. This is specialized work.

Sometimes, I sense, things are thrown in with the understanding that it's more than meteorologists reading.

No one trained in weather needed that line. Some surface water in the Northern Gulf of Mexico is 90+. Without a doubt, this is a dangerous storm and getting more dangerous by the minute.

My biggest fear is Katrina will head west of New Orleans and strike the coast there. A Category 4 storm (which is the forecast) in that location would be devastating. For a variety of reasons, New Orleans is incredibly vulnerable and a strike like that would be the worst of all possible scenarios!

Man, I hope he's right. So far, this storm has been poorly forecast¹. And, recently, each succeeding forecast has moved the path farther left... farther to the west.

Today alone, the center of the forecast path for landfall has moved a few hundred miles.

More on Katrina later. We have a few days with this storm at sea before the real trouble begins.

¹ - By poorly forecast, I don't mean NHC did a bad job. I mean the ability to forecast this particular storm was beyond the capabilities of science at the moment. Something's there that no one can get a handle on. That we don't know exactly why it went wrong is as troubling as it going wrong... maybe more.

There is a phrase used in journalism when you take the most important part of a story and overshadow it with something less important. That's what's going on with the Weather Service's forecast for New Orleans.

Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Hello? You're forecasting a hurricane for heaven's sake. And, you're forecasting it in, arguably, the most susceptible place in the country.

In the forecasters defense, what you read is a product of a semi automated process which puts words to forecast parameters... still. This way a forecaster can write lots of different pinpoint forecasts based on wide area information.

Let me use that word again... still!

Hurricane Katrina has strengthened, but not as much as would be anticipated. There are odd signs.

All that aside, conditions in the Gulf are so strongly favorable for development that short term fluctuations or even developmental weakness should be disregarded. At least that's how it looks this morning.

It's always possible, after the fact, things like the flight level wind will be looked at as a sign we saw and missed.

There's not much surface data coming in now from the area near Katrina. The highest wind I can find is 'only' a 45 knot (about 52 mph) gust at a buoy (the 30 foot tall one in the photo on the left) located about 300 miles south of Panama City, FL. The buoy is rolling in 25 foot waves, in the 86° water.

Right now I'm scared for New Orleans.

I just got off the phone with my friend's mom in New Orleans.

We've never met in person, but she knows me. I've fixed her computer by remote control. She's seen me on TV while visiting her daughter in Connecticut. I've known her son for over 25 years and he's a trusted friend.

She understands I'm looking out for her.

"Leave," I said. "Leave now."

This morning's Times-Picayune showed the path well to the east of New Orleans. That's changed.

The latest from the Hurricane Center, and all my other normally reliable sources say, Hurricane Katrina is major trouble. She has the potential to be as devastating as any hurricane in my lifetime.

Over the phone my friend's mom has always sounded younger than her chronological age. Speaking to her now, her real age showed.

Driving long distances are very tiring to her. She didn't know where there would be shelters to accommodate her. She wasn't quite sure where 'north' was, when I said to drive north past Lake Ponchartrain as far as she could go.

As much as she fears leaving the house, she needs to fear staying even more. Riding out a hurricane is something people only do once. Once is enough to make them realize they never want to do it again.

And, as has been said by me and others, New Orleans is a special case. It is incredibly susceptible to flooding. It floods regularly from heavy rain. Flooding from the direct hit of a Category 4 storm would be of historic proportions.

I wish I could run down and toss her over my shoulder, carrying her to safety. It's not that easy. There's no access. She's alone. She's probably coming to the realization that there's something to fear.

As I hung up the phone, I said, "Next week when we speak, I want you to complain that I made you leave your home... and for what? I want to be wrong about Hurricane Katrina."

I'm scared I won't be.

We've got a little coverage problem at work. I've been asked to work Sunday morning - airtime: 6:00 AM! So, I've napped a bit this evening and will try and catch a few more hours of sleep before then.

In essence, I'm trying to put myself on 'jet lag'.

As long as I'm up, another look at the hurricane progress. Since leaving Florida, Hurricane Katrina has been left alone in the open Gulf of Mexico. She's intensified, but not as much as I would have thought. Still, the official number at this hour is 115 mph - that's a wickedly powerful storm.

The forecast path is still a worst case scenario for New Orleans¹

A common hurricane misconception is that its winds are only affected by the outside environment. Is there warm water? Are the feeders and outflow unimpeded? Is the hurricane being dragged near rough terrain, like mountains on an island? Things like that.

Often missed is the eyewall cycle. Hurricanes are constantly reforming their eyewall, shedding the old one for a new one. During this cycle, the strength of the hurricane's winds are temporarily reduced, only to spring right back up. If this happens as a storm approaches land, you've dodged a bullet... or at least lowered the caliber.

That's what's being talked about in this discussion from the Hurricane Center:

At the home page of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, there is no new news - none! The website seems to be untouched since Saturday morning, or more likely Friday night. I can't believe that, under these critical circumstances, but it's true.

WWL-TV is up-to-date, including information on "contraflow." Some interstates and other highways now have all their lanes heading north! It works moderately well, but it's confusing.

New Orleans needs to empty out now. There is no longer enough time to consider the forecast might be wrong. People staying in New Orleans, or much of the rest of Southern Louisiana, do so at their own peril.

¹ - When meteorologists talk weather, they often abbreviate, using the airport identifier. Bradley International is BDL, Kennedy in New York is JFK, West Palm Beach is PBI. Some are non-intuitive. New Orleans is MSY. I cannot think of New Orleans without MSY popping into my head.

The Navy has published a study which forecasts the effect of a hurricane on New Orleans. It's somewhat dry and a little technical, but interesting tonight.

The alarm clock is set to go off in an hour. I can't sleep. I've gotten a few hours of rest, no more.

Hurricane Katrina continues to be my concern. While I tossed and turned, Katrina was turning it up a notch.

Only a tiny portion of Hurricane Katrina is visible on radar. It's too far from shore - over 300 miles from New Orleans. The satellite image is very impressive with a clearly visible eye. That's a change from earlier.

While I type this, I am watching WWL-TV New Orleans with streaming video. I think they're doing an excellent job. I know WDSU is also feeding video, but I haven't checked them yet.

The most surprising part of the coverage is the lack of traffic showing up on the live cameras. It's late at night. At this point people are probably waiting until daylight.

WWL is going to learn this kind of coverage is a marathon, not a sprint. They'll need to keep enough strength and staff to go another few days wall-to-wall.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune has updated their site, and the front page today is a lot different than the front page yesterday. Click here for a full size image (Adobe Acrobat Reader necessary).

Over the past few days I've commented on some of the wide swings in the forecast for Hurricane Katrina. Now, it looks like the swings have stopped.

Is this the meteorological kiss of death? Is the Hurricane Center patting itself on the back too soon?

The satellite presentation is massive with a well defined eye. This is still a devastating forecast for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Katrina has grown to 160 mph or Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

These numbers don't mean much to most of us. What frame of reference is there? You've never experienced 160 mph winds (and hopefully never will).

The Hurricane Center's categories are based on a scale which relates winds speed to specific damage. Here's what Category 5 really means:

And, like the old time movies with the heroine tied to the railroad tracks, a lumbering train is moving toward New Orleans and there's no way to escape.

After working this morning, I came home and caught a few more hours of sleep. I'll explain later, but my day is far from done. I'm driving to Uncasville later this afternoon¹.

My first TV viewing was to scan the all news channels. The attitude concerning Hurricane Katrina is much different than yesterday. Whether the channels are feeding on each other's energy or truly understand the gravity of the situation, is an unknown. They are in "Big Story Panic Mode."

When TV shows back-to-back phoners with no live video, the implication is the story is huge.

This is not misplaced angst. Everything I can see about this storm says the same thing. It's is a monster.

A few minutes ago, I sent this IM to my friend Bob at FSU:

Maybe that's an academic point. If Katrina went from its current 175 mph sustained wind to 150 mph, no one would notice the difference.

Force is calculated by squaring the wind speed. So, at this point, it's not how many miles per hour Katrina increases or decreases, it's whether that number is a significant percentage of the starting point.

He's right. You can't give people a reason to stay at this point. The downside is just too tragic. I'm sure this is a mixed metaphor, but the risk is much greater than our ability to accurately forecast landfall.

Doing live television for hours on end is no easy task. From time-to-time we'll all slip. I saw WWL-TV last night and they were doing an excellent job. This guy gets a temporary pass from me - though he shouldn't have said what he said.

My friend's mom in New Orleans has left her home. Yesterday I could hear how little she wanted to do that. She was alone and scared. Whatever guidance was being given by officials wasn't enough to reassure her.

This is a much better scenario than her original intention to stay at the Superdome itself. It would seem to me, a building like that is the wrong place to seek shelter, with its high and large roof. And, being in the city, it too is built below sea level.

It won't be long before Hurricane Katrina is well within radar range. The best pictures come when the storm is squarely within the view of the lowest radar tilt. Right now feeder bands dominate.

If you were at the mouth of the Mississippi right now, you would see heavy rolling surf. The wind would be gusty, but not even tropical storm strength.

From time-to-time the southeastern sky would darken as squalls moved in.

These would be rain storms that start with heavy rain - not easing in from light to moderate to heavy. The drops would be huge... blobs of rain is probably a better description than drops.

And then, as suddenly as the rain began, it would end. As the day went on, these squalls would each become progressively stronger with the time between squalls decreasing.

The big stuff would be there until tomorrow.

¹ - If you're not in Connecticut, Uncasville is as centrally located and convenient to get to as the name Uncasville implies.

I'm writing this from the Mohegan Sun Hotel in Eastern Connecticut. Tomorrow I'll be emceeing a program for Norwich Free Academy. It starts so early, the only way to make it work was to stay on site.

What a spectacular hotel. It is attached to a spectacular casino, which would be a great place for me to go... but they don't have poker anymore.

More on all of this tomorrow. Tonight there are bigger fish to fry in the form of Hurricane Katrina.

I've got WWL-TV streaming here on the computer. This is much better than watching coverage on the cable networks.

The cable networks are more polished and hard hitting. This local New Orleans station is providing the kind of news people there need.

Carl Arredondo, who I remember from The Weather Channel, is their chief meteorologist. He's pretty solid.

I just watched another met do a fascinating explanation of the radar display. There's no time for this except on New Orleans TV where tonight, there's nothing but time!

I know what the forecasters are thinking... the local guys and the PhD's at the Hurricane Center. Am I right? Did I miss anything?

Forecasters have spent the last few days scaring the living... well, you know... scaring people. Now they have a moral dilemma.

If the forecast comes true, people get hurt (maybe die) and property loss is great. If they're wrong, they become the goat. "Why did you make us leave? For this?"

Snow forecasts are similar, but the downside to this is so much greater. This really is a life and death forecast. And, accuracy of track to the degree people want and a good intensity forecast are beyond the current state of the art.

We can be close. We cannot get it exactly right - ever, except maybe by accident.

Tonight I spoke with a friend in the Miami area. She had been through Hurricane Katrina last week when Katrina was a 'minimal hurricane'. She only got her power back today. She still has no phone service.

New Orleans will be hit so much harder.

She also said, fill up the car tonight. Gasoline prices will skyrocket tomorrow. I'm afraid she's right on that forecast.

I spent the night at Mohegan Sun, preparing to emcee and event for a few thousand teachers. It wasn't a good night. My body doesn't know whether it's "Tuesday or Chestnut Street."

I caught a few hours, but was up at four... drifting in and out of a light sleep until my wakeup call at 6:30.

This isn't the hotel's fault. This is a top notch hotel (more on that later). It was my body saying "Don't treat me this way."

Message received.

Up early, I started spinning the dial, looking for Hurricane Katrina coverage. It wasn't tough to find. Seemingly everyone had a 'cowboy' out in the elements, flirting with disaster.

I saw Anderson Cooper, in the pouring rain, gesturing to a crane he said might topple.

Hey, Andy - get away from the crane. This is only television.

All in all I liked the local coverage I saw last night on WWL much better than what the national news showed. Obviously, their was a different purpose to each particular broadcast. I found WWL's comforting.

Is that OK to say? Comforting was what was needed.

I moved downstairs to prepare for the event. In the featured speaker's dressing room, a TV was showing CNN. My last contact with the storm this morning was the report that the roof of the Louisiana Superdome had been breeched.

I think the original story was worse than what actually happened. I would think it wasn't hype but genuine concern from the anchors and reporters. I certainly was concerned.

Yesterday, I had written about what the forecasters might have been thinking. Today, one of those scenarios came true as the storm weakened prior to landfall and then jogged right, giving a more direct hit to Alabama and Mississippi than Louisiana.

New Orleans wasn't totally laid to waste. There has been plenty of damage, and once we get out of the 'fog of war' we'll find plenty more. The coasts of Alabama and Mississippi really took the brunt of Hurricane Katrina. That was more than expected.

After the fact, I still agree with the decision to empty out New Orleans. Yes, some people will crawl out of the woodwork to say they rode it out and it wasn't that bad. That's not the point.

Tonight I'll drive home wearing my seatbelt, even though I don't expect to get into an accident.

Blogger's note: One of my fellow MSU students just started a new job, forecasting in New
Orleans! He sent a mass mailing to the class which I'll attach after the jump.

I just finished watching a show I'd recorded earlier tonight. When it ended, I went down to my cable system's block of news channels to scout around.

Usually, this time of night, they're re-running shows from earlier in the evening. Tonight, as I hit CNN, I noticed a white LIVE 'bug' in the upper left hand corner.

Rick Sanchez was on the air, speaking by phone with someone from Tulane Hospital in New Orleans. The hospital's spokesperson was talking about water - rising water.

The hospital had seen no real flooding while Hurricane Katrina passed by, but tonight, water had begun rushing in and it was rising at an alarming rate.

I could hear the fear in her voice as she described the water level rising an inch every five minutes. That's a foot an hour. Already there was six feet of water outside the hospital. Soon, water would reach the level of their emergency generators on the second floor.

Sanchez was taken aback. I'm not sure he originally understood what she was saying. It was so unexpected - so out of context.

She said a levee keeping Lake Ponchartrain out of New Orleans had been breached. The cut in the levee was two blocks long and water was rushing in unimpeded. Even if there were pumps working, and she wasn't sure there were, they wouldn't be able to keep up with this deluge.

On CNN, Rick Sanchez kept asking questions, but it was obvious this woman wanted to get off the phone. Speaking to him wasn't going to help her.

I heard terror in her voice.

The hospital had to get its patients out. Its patients were by and large critical. The only way to move them would be by helicopter and FEMA would be needed for that.

The other all news stations are in their usual reruns. I have no way of knowing if this is true. If it is, this is New Orleans' worst fears are realized. Lake Ponchartrain could inundate the city.

I went to WWL's streaming site, but it's down. WDSU's streaming site has static and solid blue video.

CNN is my only source and their info is coming from a woman whose identity I can't confirm. On top of that, her claim is totally unexpected.

There was nothing at nola.com, so I went back to WWL's website and found a recorded video clip from the mayor. He confirms the levee breach and a lot more.

I thought, based on what I'd seen and heard, New Orleans' damage was moderate. Based on what I'm hearing now, it's tragic. The mayor sounds like a defeated man. Some city areas are under 20 feet of water. Highways and bridges have been destroyed. Gas lines have been broken and geysers of flame are shooting up through the water on a few flooded streets.

The Twin Spans are gone. When the mayor said that, the two anchors sitting with him stared in total disbelief.

The Twin Spans are an amazing 23.8 miles across, held in place by 9,000 concrete pilings. During the day, as you approach the middle of the bridge, you can see no land in either direction. At night, you can faintly see the city lights.

Locals say it's an eerie feeling until you get used to it. Too late for that now, I suppose.

Earlier, I had used the term "fog of war" to describe how much we didn't know. Now that the fog is lifting, the true extent is damage is coming into view.

Blogger's note: In my original posting on this entry, I think I confused one roadway for another.

I appreciate Jignesh's attention and help in pointing this out.

My friends mom, the one I encouraged to leave New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina was approaching, is fine though her home is not.

From a Mississippi State classmate who just started a job forecasting the weather as Hurricane Katrina approached:

There is no New Orleans Times-Picayune I can find. Their website hasn't been updated since Monday's edition. Their Tuesday front page link leads to last Tuesday's.

I've heard stories of the Brazilian rain forest. If a jungle area is clear cut and then allowed to grow back, it comes back differently. The rain forest is what it is because of how it evolved over time.

There's a truth in that last paragraph for New Orleans. This city will come back (if it is actually able to come back) different than it was a few days ago. You can't rebuild tradition and charm. You can't plan to regain what was there by serendipity.

I'm still not sure we know everything.

At some point, we as a country are going to have to reevaluate our commitment to having a city (New Orleans) where it is. Do we want the responsibility, since it is so susceptible?

Should whatever's destroyed be rebuilt as is, where is, or should we encourage people to rebuild elsewhere?

The more video I see from Hurricane Katrina's wrath, the more I wonder.

The past 24 hours were the most difficult time yet to watch what's going on in the areas struck by Hurricane Katrina.

First up was the emotional reporting of CNN's Jeanne Meserve. Here's what USAToday said.

There was an equally emotional side to Robin Roberts live shot on Good Morning America. She had gone to the Gulf not knowing the condition of her family. This was where she grew up.

Later Tuesday morning I watched an interview with a man who had lost his wife. He was on the street, a child in tow. He seemed dazed or disoriented as he told the story of being on a rooftop, holding his wife's hand and then having her slip away.

As she drifted off, she asked him to take care of their family.

It was as sad a moment as could be seen. This man was the embodiment of human tragedy.

When the reporter asked the man where he would go, he didn't know. His simplicity was his eloquence.

I'm hoping that sentence makes sense to you. I wish I could think of a better way to explain, other than to say, he didn't need to speak volumes of words to have his plight understood.

I got an email from my friend whose mother had been evacuated from New Orleans home he grew up in to Baton Rouge.

Until today this had been a New Orleans story. There is plenty of damage farther east in Mississippi and Alabama. The pre-Katrina story had been set-up better in New Orleans. Now it's all coming into perspective.

In Mississippi and Alabama the damage has been done. In New Orleans additional damage is piling on.

The breach of a levee I wrote about yesterday continued to pour Lake Ponchartrain into the city. Attempts to stop or slow the flow failed. As i understand it, flood control pumps only would pump the water back into the lake - a vicious cycle.

Civil law began to break down today. Looters were out in force. I watched people brazenly fillet a Wal*Mart. People were walking around with carts, as if they were really shopping.

CNN reported tonight there had been shootings and carjackings.

The city is preparing to move everyone out of the Superdome. It hasn't been said, but I assume people inside are becoming volatile.

The New York Times is reporting a naval contingent on its way to New Orleans. Where have they been? Why wasn't this done sooner? I don't know.

Since the hurricane, the weather has been fine. On the Gulf that won't last. Thunderstorms will fire up. There's even the chance of more tropical trouble from the Gulf. After all, the hurricane season doesn't peak for another few weeks.

I just got this email from my friend whose mom evacuated New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina was approaching. It was tough persuading her to leave the house she'd lived in over 20 years and the city she'd lived in all her life.

Will she ever be able to go back? It's a question that won't be answered for a long time.

I'm not in New Orleans nor the Gulf Coast. I only know what I see on television and read in the newspaper. I am not happy with what I'm seeing.

There's more, but it's too depressing.

Where is FEMA? Where is Homeland Security? Where is the National Guard? Where are tents and cots and kitchens?

Why on Wednesday is this first being announced by President Bush¹?

That Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast was no surprise. It was well forecast, both intensity and track. The predictions from the Hurricane Center were dire with some of the strongest cautionary language I've ever read relating to weather.

Wasn't anything brought in to be ready?

As we have a moment to step back from this tragedy, maybe it's time to question how the resources allocated for emergency services are deployed. If I were in New Orleans or the Mississippi and Alabama coastal towns, I'd be more than steaming right now. I'd want answers.

¹ - Though President Bush is 'in charge', operational decisions should have been made at lower governmental levels.

Hurricane Katrina ceased being a weather story days ago. I now watch as an interested bystander. I am very unhappy with what I see.

If FEMA or any other part of Homeland Security has had an impact on those people in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, I haven't seen it. Again, this storm wasn't a surprise. I told people here in Connecticut how bad I thought it would be... but I wasn't alone.

Reading the pre-Katrina statements from the Weather Service's New Orleans office, there was no doubt this was being portrayed as a killer... a once in a lifetime type event. The Hurricane Center was saying the same thing.

Where was FEMA?

Where was Homeland Security?

Where are they today?

How can we allow our fellow citizens to suffer, as these people are certainly suffering? Where is the humanity that symbolizes America? These poor citizens deserve comfort.

New Orleans is a city filled with poor, black people. I would be easy to think this was racist or classist treatment. I don't think so. I think this is a case of inept agencies. They would have poorly served any group so affected, regardless of station in life.

It looks like there are still people dying from this storm. How disgusting is that?

From the New Orleans Times-Picayune:

The same people who dropped the ball on this human tragedy are also supposed to be watching over us should there be a terrorist attack. If this is their response with warning, what would their response be to a surprise?

Blogger's note - this is about as angry as I get. I invite your comments. However, I ask you to please be non-partisan with any posts here.

This is a small blog with minimal schlep. I've been asking where our country's response to Hurricane Katrina has been for days. Now, through Internet audio and video, I have watched others - mainly journalists with network weight, asking the same questions.

I've found most of the links on Crooks and Liars. It is a site I had never seen before today and, quite honestly, I don't know anything about it or its political slant.

The answers I've heard haven't been satisfying to me. The fact that these journalists now feel empowered to ask tough questions is a good thing.

I watched Anderson Cooper interview Senator Landrieu of Louisiana. He was having none of whatever she was saying - especially her glad handing other politicians for their diligent work in this catastrophe. He brought her back to dead bodies and suffering people.

In the past I have criticized Anderson Cooper for his 'cowboy' reporting in the face of imminent natural disasters. My opinion of Mr. Cooper has greatly changed, and to the better. I have seen thoughtful and insightful reporting on his part. He has won me over.

I've always enjoyed Jack Cafferty. Whoever at CNN decided to let him speak his mind did us all a great favor. Whether I agree with everything he says, I always listen and ponder.

In a piece of video I just watched, Cafferty used his age, 62 years old, as a reference when speaking that he had never seen a response like this to any disaster - ever.

I'm am watching Ted Koppel in a segment that has been captioned:

Ted is interviewing Michael Brown from FEMA. This is not a good day to be Michael Brown.

When I look at my web logs, I can see how people get here. A large percent come in through a Google search. Here are the top ten search queries that led to this site over the past day and a half:

I guess a lot of people want to know about rebuilding New Orleans - myself included.

There will probably be no other entry in the blog today, or if there is it will be very late. We're taking Steffie to college. The car is loaded.

Because her school is on a road that leads to a major beach, we're leaving early, hoping to avoid a traffic backup. Considering the forecast, and that this is the last of the summer weekends, leaving early might not be enough.

I've had the TV on this early morning. I'm glad to see supplies and personnel finally getting to the Gulf Coast states. That doesn't take anyone off the hook. What went on the past four days was reprehensible.

Earlier, I wrote this debacle was brought on by ineptitude at a number of governmental levels. I still feel that way. A chorus has also risen, saying this was racially motivated.

The realt cause of this failure must be found without any hiding from the truth. People died unnecessarily when the government they depended on didn't come to their aid. This is not a political issue anymore (if it ever was).

If there was criminal negligence, those people responsible need to be punished.

One more thing. Yesterday I said something nice about Anderson Cooper. Today I'll throw in Shepard Smith.

Those who know me know, I've been very critical in my opinion of Smith in the past. Arrogant was probably my weakest characterization.

For the past few days he has been a compassionate advocate for those in need. I suppose there's a journalistic line across which advocacy lies, and so it is conventionally forbidden. These are extraordinary circumstances.

Will this new "Shep" continue after the crisis subsides? Who knows? I'm hopeful.

This story is beginning to wind down for me. However, what has happened in New Orleans and on the Gulf Coast cannot be forgotten.

I am mortified at the sight of the United States begging other countries for aid. Is this our true place in the world? Heaven help us all.

While I was away from my computer, my friend Ashley Adams sent this IM. He was gone by the time I returned to the keyboard:

That, of course, is the money question.

This morning's New Orleans Times-Picayune had a scathing editorial.

Like I said, this story is now passing from this blog. It is about to become a partisan fight.

That's sad, not because some politicians don't need to be held accountable, but because it might remove attention from the fact we need action for the future.

Yes, someone (more likely someones) need to take the fall. More importantly, we can never let this happen again, ever.

A week ago, as Hurricane Katrina was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, I spent some time on the phone with my friend's 86 year old mom. I tried... I guess I did convince her to leave her New Orleans home.

Before dawn Sunday morning she got into her car and drove to the Louisiana Superdome. This was before all the tumult and grief there. Before long they had her on a bus headed to Alexandria. She never got there. The bus drove 10 hours to Baton Rouge (a one hour trip under normal circumstances) and dropped her off at LSU.

Though we've all see the horrific images from New Orleans and the Mississippi and Alabama coasts, Ruth was treated well at LSU. They fed her and there was air conditioning, while the power was on.

We all assume Ruth's house and all her possessions are gone. The area it's in was one of the hardest hit, under ten or more feet of water! Her car, in the Superdome parking lot is probably a total loss as well.

A few days ago, my friend bought tickets to bring his mom to Connecticut¹. She will stay with her daughter who lives here in the Naugatuck Valley.

When I heard Ruth was coming to Connecticut, I told the station's assignment desk and we sent Darren Duarte to do a story. Ruth is telegenic and articulate. The story was very emotional - as you might imagine.

Astoundingly, and much to her delight, Ruth has become a 'TV star'. First it was the UPS man, delivering a package, asking if she was the woman from television? Then at Macy's in the Trumbull Mall.

Last night, Ruth and family invited me to dinner at Tony & Lucille's on Wooster Street in New Haven. Dinner was exceptional. Even Ruth, a lifelong New Orleans resident... a city known for it's astounding cuisine... was blown away.

More interesting were Ruth's stories and her amazing attitude. I don't know about you, but if I had lost everything, I don't think I could have maintained her composure and positive attitude.

Everything is gone - photos, letters, memorabilia. Furniture and cars, even houses can be replaced (and, thankfully, she has the insurance to do that). But how do you replace a lifetime of possessions with special meaning? There is no insurance for that.

Ruth has no imminent plans to return to New Orleans. She will probably take up living with her daughter and, if all goes well, just stay.

This is part of what will change New Orleans. At the dinner table we discussed whether New Orleans would ever come back?

Can tourists and conventions ever look past the images of gun toting thugs walking down the street or the misery of the people trapped in the Convention Center, Superdome and even on highway overpasses?

Will those with means, like Ruth I suppose, flee the city? It could turn from a primarily poor and black city to a totally poor and black city. An analogy was made to Newark, NJ.

That would be a shame. Though it's an overused term, New Orleans really was a one of a kind city. It would be nice to see it return to that stature.

¹ - When my friend, whose name I have kept from these entries, called his travel agent to tell his mother's story and get tickets, the agent said the trip was on her company. Some stories from this tragedy are good. Most of us do operate the way you'd like under difficult circumstances.

I am one of those people who firmly believe FEMA and/or the National Guard should have been in New Orleans as soon as the wind began to die down. However, a great misconception most people have is the flooding started around the time the storm peaked.

Here's what I wrote around 3:00 AM EDT Tuesday morning. By then the storm had moved north and New Orleans no longer had hurricane conditions.

As far as I can tell, that was the first national report of flooding in New Orleans.

So, maybe that was what Chertoff thought on Tuesday... but where was he on Monday? Even before the flooding, New Orleans was in great need. The city was without power. Windows were blown out all over the city. Buildings had been destroyed. People were homeless or were housed in shelters with no food, water or sanitary facilities.

Yes, the flooding came late, but wasn't anyone there surveying the damage or deciding what kind of support the city would need before then? Even before the flooding, the city had suffered a tragedy.

Why was he depending on newspapers (or any media) for his information?

As I type, we have Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Nate in the Atlantic. They are well to the east and not a threat to land. Tropical Depression 16 is a different story.

As was the case with Katrina, this storm has formed over the Bahamas and is moving toward Florida. Unlike Katrina, this one is expected to move northwest, toward Cape Canaveral and what is referred to as "The Treasure Coast."

The official projections are for 60 knot winds at landfall, which translate to just under hurricane strength. As soon it the depression hits 39 mph (it's at 30 mph) it will become Tropical Storm Ophelia.

When Katrina hit South Florida people wrote it off as a minimal hurricane. My guess is a strong tropical storm will get a lot more attention based on video fresh in people's minds.

As Hurricane Katrina was bearing down on New Orleans, I phoned a friend's mother to tell her to leave. I wrote about this in an earlier entry.

This past week her story was told in the Connecticut Post and New Haven Register.

I've attached both stories after the jump.

Back when Hurricane Katrina was threatening the Gulf Coast, I did my best to get Ruth Meisel out. The day she drove to safety up north was the last time she saw her home, until yesterday.

With her two adult children in tow, Ruth Meisel returned to New Orleans to see what could be salvaged and tie up loose ends. She will be among the tens, maybe hundreds of thousands, who will leave their homes and move elsewhere.

New Orleans is being abandoned, wholesale.

I asked her son, my friend, Farrell to type some of his thoughts so I could put them here in the blog. I'll sprinkle a few of his photos here, though the best way to see them is in this slideshow.

It's nice... no, it's amazing to see Ruth smiling.

Here's my read. She could be distressed with what she's about to see, or she could be happy to see she raised her children right, and they are accompanying and supporting her. She chose the latter.

My mother knew from earlier reports and a prior visit by my sister, that things didn't look so good. She's been very optimistic and hopeful, looking forward and giving us much encouragement. My mother's house survived the storm on the outside, but the inside looked and smelled awful and was a total disaster. Entering the front door we were greeted by a living room chair that wasn't there when my mother left in August. That gives you an idea of how we were greeted.

From the marks on the wall it looks like 4-5 feet of water made it into the house. From the 'bunny suits' the Meisel's wore, you can assume it wasn't spring water.

Nearly everything was ruined.

One of the things that struck Farrell when we spoke on the phone was the proliferation of signs advertising Katrina related services. There are also markings, scrawled on homes with spray paint.

One of the city's synagogues, Beth Israel, an Orthodox house of worship...Also one of the city's oldest, which used to be in the historic uptown area until the late 1960s. Also on Canal Blvd, note the watermarks. Reportedly, the head Rabbi fled town, leaving the Torah scrolls to flood and be rescued from religious volunteers. The Rabbi has since been fired. My sister spotted prayer books and prayer shawls on the ground in front of the now-deserted synagogue....a sin in the Jewish religion.

Here's how Farrell ended his note, and I'll leave it pretty much intact:

Please, look at the pictures. It is so sad... so tragic.