May Gray, June Gloom

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

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Even Californians complain about the weather. We should be ashamed of ourselves!

We have one of those potential kvetch times on-the-way. It’s the seasonal California May gray and June gloom. We’ll be waking to cloudy skies for most of the next week. They disappear by noon. This type of weather happens sporadically through summer.

In the case of coastal California, the offshore marine layer is typically propelled inland by a pressure gradient which develops as a result of intense heating inland, blanketing coastal communities in cooler air which, if saturated, also contains fog. The fog lingers until the heat of the sun becomes strong enough to evaporate it, often lasting into the afternoon during the “May gray” or “June gloom” period – Wikipedia

We’re over 10 miles inland. It’s not as bad as for coastal dwellers. Of course, they live on the California Coast. They’d better not complain. Ever. About anything.

This weather scenario wasn’t something we were looking for in Connecticut. Here, it shows up nicely on the forecast models. At the top is a BUFKIT readout from tonight’s 00Z GFS for KSNA, John Wayne Airport in nearby Santa Ana (Clicking the image will give you a much larger, much more readable look).

BUFKIT is an amazing program for visualizing weather data. It was developed at NOAA and is free, as is the data it uses.

With maps you see a large area for one specific time. With BUFKIT you see one specific place over a period of time. Go ahead–reread that.

There’s a lot going on, but what I’m looking at is at the bottom of the image. The lines are isohumes–lines of equal humidity. The cloud producing marine layer isn’t thick. On most days it only goes up 2,000 feet. It produces low, dense overcast. Sometimes there’s drizzle.

The marine layer forms in the evening and fades through the morning.

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

Too Early To Be Sure About Sunday

The GFS starts Hartford with sleet pre-dawn turning to snow in the afternoon. It calls for 1.5″ of snow, but that’s after nearly a half inch liquid equivalent of sleet.

It’s very early Thursday. There’s a chance for snow Sunday. I so wish I knew what was going to happen. The computer models have waffled on the main low’s position. Right now all I can do is weigh the options.

Tonight was the perfect opportunity to download the latest version of BUFKT, the Swiss Army Knife of weather. A new algorithm for liquid-to-snow ratio calculation has been added. BUFKIT was developed at the Weather Service. It’s distributed free. I use it every single day.

It bears repeating this far out you have little choice but monitor the models. No human could possibly forecast 4, 5, 6, 7 days out on his own. The math is incredibly complex because the atmosphere is infinitely complex.

The GFS came in with an interesting solution. It’s the model I favor. I’ll also look at the ECMWF which has become more easily found online.

The GFS starts Hartford with sleet pre-dawn turning to snow in the afternoon. It calls for 1.5″ of snow, but that’s after nearly a half inch liquid equivalent of sleet. I’m not sure how much of that snow will stick.

If it does stick we’ll have bigger problems with icy everything Sunday night!

On the shoreline the scenario looks oddly similar with sleet to snow, except more of each. 3″ is possible in New Haven though some/most of it could easily be lost to wet streets.

This storm is still far away. Things will change.

Even having imperfect insight is valuable.

Forecast: Long Duration Gloom

Flowers and plants will grow. We’ll be a little less happy. No, actually we’ll be downright depressed.

Part of my morning ritual is looking at weather data so I can get up to speed. There’s a lot of green on this chart. I don’t like what I see!

First the good news. During the warm season it’s unusual to have all-day rain. Unfortunately it’s not uncommon to have long duration gloom.

The image at the top of this entry is a screencap from BUFKIT–the Swiss Army Knife of weather. The weather model is the GFS, our go-to model when looking out a week. BUFKIT is read right-to-left, so today is on the far right side and the upcoming week spreads out to the left.

Those vertical bars of green represent rain. At the moment each six hour block through Saturday has at least a tiny bit of rain.

Flowers and plants will grow. We’ll be a little less happy. No, actually we’ll be downright depressed.

Weather Stuff I Look At Every Day

Lots of people are surprised there’s math involved. Yes there is!

From time-to-time someone will walk up to me and tell me they’d like to be a meteorologist. If you’re younger, smarter and better looking than me while willing to work for less I’ll do my best to discourage you! Who needs the competition?

Lots of people are surprised there’s math involved. Yes there is! In the 21st Century spelling counts too.

I like the job a lot partially because I get to look at stuff like this every day. Here’s today’s BUFKIT output. Like Hebrew you read it from right-to-left.

Weather’s Swiss Army Knife

I know meteorologists who don’t use this and for the life of me can’t figure out why!

I try not to talk about weather too much here. I’d rather not be in competition with my bosses business. However, there is a tool I use on a daily basis–BUFKIT.

BUFKIT is like a Swiss Army Knife for weather! It’s freely distributed by the Weather Service as is the data that feeds it. I know meteorologists who don’t use this and for the life of me can’t figure out why!

BUFKIT is a forecast profile visualization and analysis tool kit. It is targeted as a training and forecast tool for the decision makers of the National Weather Service. It is also available to anyone that would like to explore very high vertical and temporal resolution model output for specific point locations.

Weather maps show a large spatial area for one specific time. BUFKIT shows single points for an extended period of time. It’s possible to turn parameters on-and-off so you can look at the atmosphere top-to-bottom as weather systems move through.

I can’t overstate this program’s importance to me.

There’s a fresh version out and since it’s free I thought I’d mention it. If the weather interests you this is a download you’ll enjoy.