Tag: Cancun

Yikes – Dean Gets Stronger

Earlier this evening, around 8:00 PM, The National Hurricane Center issued a statement saying Hurricane Dean had top winds of 155 mph.

DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT…AND DEAN IS LIKELY

TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

About a half hour later, based on recon data, Dean was upgraded to 160 mph.

000

WTNT64 KNHC 210034

TCUAT4

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH…MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

There’s really no practical difference between 155 mph and 160 mph. Wind force increases logarithmically with the wind speed. But there’s a great perception difference, because at 160 mph, Hurricane Dean becomes a Category 5 storm.

Should Dean strike the Yucatan Peninsula as a Cat 5, it will be the first Atlantic Basin Category 5 landfall since Andrew, 15 years ago!

The only good news is, Dean will be sufficiently south of Cancun to produce less damage than a direct hit. It’s still going to crush the region mercilessly.

Wilma At A Snail’s Pace

I am so glad my parents will be leaving Saturday for Las Vegas, instead of Tuesday. Sure they’ll have a few more days of fun, but they’ll also miss Hurricane Wilma as it moves across Florida.

I have no fear their place will be able to take whatever the diminished Wilma will dish out, but who wants to sit in the dark and wait it out. There hasn’t been a storm yet that didn’t douse their lights, sometimes for days.

The speed at which Hurricane Wilma was moving this evening was nearly criminal – just 2-3 mph. At that rate any given area could spend the better part of a day with hurricane force winds. Can you imagine?

The radar image shows Wilma is not the vigorous system it was when it was totally over water. There seems to be light rain that’s infiltrated the eye. The last reading from the Hurricane Center said 140 mph, but I doubt that right now.

It’s still a monster. It was a MONSTER!

No one who weathered this storm in Cancun or Cozumel will ever forget the terror they’ve experienced. I can say that without fear of contradiction, even though I’ve spoken to no one there. My raw data makes it perfectly clear.

Hurricane Wilma On My Mind

I so wanted to make a joke about Wilma and Fred Flintstone. The window of opportunity to look at this as a funny little storm came and went in an instant. Wilma has me worried.

At the moment, the best view is from satellite, though I suspect the Mexican radar at Cancun will start seeing the structure of the storm later today.

This is not a good scenario for my folks who live in Southern Palm Beach County, Florida. In fact, it’s just not good for anyone in South Florida – and I believe they know it.

For many in Florida the first hurricane was an adventure. That romantic outlook is long gone. Hurricanes are terrifying and you don’t need a direct hit to bring grief, trouble, inconvenience and cost.

I’ll bet my folks put the hurricane shutters down a little quicker this time.

I was up, chatting with my friend Bob last night when the first signs of major trouble came in. Bob has his PhD in meteo, so it’s no stretch to say he’s much geekier and meteorologically adept than I am. He was reading the raw recon data from the Hurricane Hunter plane. I seldom do that when a storm is so far from land.

He tipped me of to the report of the 3 nautical mile eye&#185. We were both amazed. Then he caught the pressure fall. That was even more stunning.

This is my analogy, so Bob can distance himself if it’s not 100% on the mark: The pressure had dropped so much that being at a point the eye passed (impossible in real life, but stay with me here) would have been the equivalent of sitting on the wing of a twin engine prop plane as it took of and climbed to about 5,000 feet. The wind you’d feel and pressure drop you’d experience were pretty similar.

First the good news. Wilma will not stay at 175 mph. I’ve gone over this before, but it bears repeating. There is a ‘sweet spot’ for hurricanes where they can achieve symmetry and near physical perfection. As soon as one little parameter goes out of balance, that symmetry breaks down and the storm loses strength.

That being said, going from 175 mph to, let’s say 130 mph, isn’t much comfort.

Oh – did I mention Wilma could head for New England? My gut tells me it’s wide and to the right, but too close to dismiss at the moment.

If… again, that’s if… it does come north and does affect New England, the storm’s structure and forward speed (along with hurricane wind speed) will need to be closely watched. The Great New England Hurricane of ’38 hit Fairfield County, Connecticut, but its greatest hurricane force winds were felt 100 miles or more east of the center!

I’ll be writing more about Wilma later today. In the meantime, the hurricane links on the right side of this page are ‘live’ and will get you to the latest hurricane info, no matter when you read this.

&#185 – It might have gotten smaller today. I saw a reference to a 2 nautical mile eye on Dr. Jeff Masters blog.

Final Exams

I’m positive that when I was escorted out of college (I originated the “Accelerated Dismissal Program” at Emerson College), I mumbled something about never taking a test again! That was such a good idea. I should have stuck with it.

I have just finished taking my two finals for this semester at Mississippi State; Severe Weather and Statistical Climatology. I had a very good average in Stat Climo, so went a little light on the studying. My thought was, there was enough padding to hide a bad final and still get an “A”. Let’s hope I was right.

In Severe Weather I needed to do really well in order to get an “A”, thanks to a poor showing on my midterm. This test wasn’t too bad, though the instructor used contingent answers. So, in essence, many of the questions were two questions and you had to get them both right to get credit for either.

The break point for an “A” is so high for me in that class that I worry something as simple as a typo could be my undoing. In my first year, I got a number of questions wrong because my mouse was in the wrong spot when I clicked. That surprised me then.

I also had trouble with questions that used double, or sometimes, triple negative concepts. Things like: “which of these isn’t true,” and then the examples contain negative ideas. I’m sure the instructor didn’t want the questions to be too easy, but this seemed to value semantics and syntax over a deeper understanding of the syllabus.

I am now on Winter Break. I know I’m married, with a child, and over 50, but doesn’t this entitle me to go to Cancun or South Padre Island and do body shots?

Hell – I don’t even drink. What kind of college student am I?