When In Doubt, Blame The Weatherman… Again

georgia snow

When in doubt, blame the weatherman! Maybe there was a time that worked. It doesn’t anymore. The governor of Georgia, Nathan Deal, understands that better today than yesterday.

Tuesday at 10:00 AM, as a crippling snow and ice storm was moving through the south, Governor Deal said,

“At that time it was still, in most of the forecasts, anticipated that the city of Atlanta would only have a mild dusting or a very small accumulation if any, and that the majority of the effects of the storm would be south of here. Preparations were made for those predictions.”

Except those weren’t the predictions.

Here’s a segment of the NWS Area Forecast Discussion from Tuesday at 4:11 AM:

IN MAIN BAND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE…ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION… OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND…WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.

FINAL NOTE…WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE.

The governor has now been taken to task by pretty much everyone who knows the definition of the isobar!

Marshall Shepherd, a meteorologist with the University of Georgia and president of the American Meteorological Society, said neither meteorologists nor the forecast for the Atlanta area was to blame.

“The buses had a tough time getting kids home, but meteorologists should not be thrown under the bus,” he said.

At 3:39 a.m. Tuesday, Marshall said the weather service issued a winter storm warning for the entire Atlanta metro area, expecting 1-2 inches of snow. “Overall, the Atlanta event was a well-forecasted and well-warned event,” he said. – USAToday

This reminds me of Connecticut’s Halloween snowstorm of 2011. You remember Jeff Butler, the president of CL&P.

“But I will assure you, when we had the weather forecast and everything we looked at in preparation for this storm, the amount of snow, which ended up being the problem, was far more significant than what had been forecast,” he said.”This event as it came in Saturday started earlier and lasted longer, with more snow accumulation–and remember, all the trees still had their foliage on them.” Butler’s comments stood in stark contrast to the dire warnings issued by local television meteorologists and Gov. Dannel P. Malloy on Friday, more than 24 hours before the first flakes fell. “If we get the amount of snow that’s being forecast, a lot of people are going to lose power, and power is going to be out for an extended period of time,” Malloy told reporters at a news conference at the Legislative Office Building late Friday morning. – Hartford Courant

I don’t think so. Here’s what I wrote in my blog a few days before that storm hit.

Whatever falls will be heavier inch-for-inch than a typical storm. The snow to water ratio will be low. It’s the kind of snow that’s good for snowballs and extra slippery for drivers!

There’s one more element of this storm which is worrisome. Sustained 20-30 mph northeasterly wind with higher gusts is likely. If this wet snow clings to trees and leaves we’ll have enough wind to bring down limbs and power lines. – My Permanent Record

I wasn’t alone. NBC30’s Ryan Hanrahan’s early take:

“One of the reasons I’m unusually concerned about this storm is that the amount of leaves on the trees make them particularly vulnerable to damage. If the snow is of the heavy and wet variety we could have major and widespread power outages. We’re in uncharted territory here in terms of this type of storm this early in the season.” – Ryan Hanrahan

This same excuse was trotted out after Hurricane Sandy left Long Island powerless! Are we that easy a target?

What happened in Georgia is truly a tragedy. It would have been nice to get a really long lead on this forecast, but sometimes science doesn’t cooperate. However, once the forecast is there you can’t stick your head in the sand and you can’t blame the weatherman.

Well, you can, but we’ll call you on it in a hurry.

I Remember Nights Like This

I just traded quick tweets with Ryan Hanrahan at NBC30.

geofffox: @ryanhanrahan How’d you do on this one so far?

ryanhanrahan: @geofffox Not bad – all about where fgen sets up. Haves and have nots. Some towns will get hit hard others won’t.

I don’t know about Ryan, but these were the nights I dreaded! I was on-the-air 28 years in Connecticut. It didn’t take long to realize how unhappy people are when a snow forecast goes wrong.

Ouch. Some were brutal.

Even when right I’ve been blamed for the forecast on other stations and the Weather Channel and by people who just misheard!

Forecasts aren’t blown because you haven’t worked hard enough. Predictions go south when bad guidance (computer models) leads you astray. By and large computers are superior to humans in quantifiable solutions to tough atmospheric problems.. That makes it difficult to discard them in pressure situations.

Mid-storm I was like a caged animal. I’m sure that didn’t make me a dream co-worker.

Sadly, no matter what I did it was never 100% right. There was always an outlier. Frustrating.

Post-Sandy the federal government allocated significant resources to beef up our weather computing power. Implementation is excruciatingly slow. Forecasts will improve a little. The low hanging fruit has already been picked.

Winter Is Not Misseed

I’m looking at the 00Z GFS numbers for Connecticut. I remember this!

It was around this point every year that winter began to win our yearly battle. Not only is forecasting winter weather fraught with peril, I had to drive in that stuff–every storm!

The GFS says a little shy of a foot at New Haven. At Bradley, over six inches. These numbers are never exactly right. Bane of my existence.

People overvalue the accumulation forecast. It’s either under two inches, under six inches, or more. The impact of six inches or a foot are virtually the same.

The more important value is timing. That forecast has improved over time.

Snow by afternoon through early Wednesday. The snow will be accompanied by strong gusty winds which will create drifting. This should be powdery snow.

If you’re working Tuesday, consider coming home early.

I am typing this wearing shorts and a t-shirt.

Holy Smokes, It’s Holy Jim

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After yesterday’s disappointment I was ready for some real California wilderness today. My cousin Melissa and her son (also my cousin) Max picked me up around 10:00. We headed south toward Cleveland National Forest and the Holy Jim Trail.

I know. Weird name. There is a story.

“Jim Smith was a talker—no ordinary talker. . . a man given to blasphemous eloquence. When he started cussing. . . he could peel paint off a stove pipe.” – GORP.com

We entered the forest in Rancho Santa Margarita, then drove a few miles down a dirt road to the trailhead. It was rutted with rocks poking out in spots. All I could think of was settlers heading west a few hundred years ago riding roads like this for thousands of miles.

I’m not yet a westerner. I don’t yet understand all the nuances. There are homes in the national forest. Some are substantial. Most have rock foundations. Some have propane tanks and outhouses with solar cells. No power lines. No phone lines. No cable TV.

One cabin had a small Yagi antenna pointing toward civilization. Cell service for them, not me!

After 28 years in Connecticut it’s time to get used to a new look. Look down in Connecticut you mainly see green. Look down on the Holy Jim Trail it’s mostly dirt.

Though we’re in the midst of a significant drought the trees were mainly green, but the mix was weird. Trees and cactus comingling.

The trail runs through Trabuco Canyon. We were bounded on both sides by steep mountains.

The goal was Holy Jim Falls, but we never got there. There were time restraints, but more than anything I really felt out of shape. This walk was a wake-up call for me.

We left the trail and headed home, with a detour. We stopped at Cook’s Corner, a biker bar with its own Wikipedia entry!

The place was filled with motorcycles and bikers. Some looked menacing in leather. Their swagger was trumped by the vibe at Cook’s. Nothing bad was happening here.

As we headed to the parking lot I spotted three deer on a nearby hill. Our first wildlife of the day… and they were behind a restaurant.

They Play Poker Here

hawaiian-gardens-poker-tableCard rooms are legal in parts of SoCal. They are mostly poker rooms. Other table games are played, but with lesser odds than ‘real’ casinos. Poker dominates.

The nearest rooms are in the south end of Los Angeles County, less than a half hour from here. I’ve been to Commerce Casino in… wait for it… The City of Commerce. The largest card room in the world. It’s like a bus terminal!

If you’ve been to beautiful casinos, like in Vegas or Connecticut, you’re in for a letdown. Commerce doesn’t seem to be the exception. I’m told none of the card rooms are showplaces.

This afternoon Helaine and I drove to Hawaiian Gardens Casino in… wait for it… Hawaiian Gardens, CA. There’s a little more room between tables than Commerce, but it too borders on bus terminal.

The casino occupies what looks to be two huge tents! Surfboards hang from the ceiling marking the different poker games dealt. It’s like a United Nations get-together.

wider-shot-poker-roomWe go to Hawaiian Gardens because of the food. Oh my God!

You order from a roving waitstaff with red shirts. Just like the deck of an aircraft carrier, everyone working at the Gardens wears a shirt colorcoded to describe their specific job.

The menu is wondrous. It’s a spiral bound, plastic encased affair with at least ten pages. Along with breakfasts and dinners are pages for Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean food.

The food comes hot. The portions are large. The taste is incredible.

Helaine had a shrimp and asparagus dinner. I had their Thursday night lamb chop special. We both had large Diet Cokes.

I gave the waiter a twenty for both of us, which included a nearly 25% tip. I’m not sure we can eat home for that price?

As for poker, one of us won twice what the other one lost. A fun adventure for us while Doppler kept guard at home.

The Snow I Won’t Miss

New Year’s Night. 8:47 PM PST.

COD Meteorology    Numerical Model Data

There’s a storm on the way to New England. There are one or two major storms there during any snow season. This will be one.

I’ve been working the numbers. It’s fun to forecast. I like maps, graphs and numbers. I can do it sitting in my chair here in Orange County.

I don’t miss the anxiety of forecasting. I know my fellow meteorologists sweat these out too. No one wants to be wrong.

At this hour radar from the Northeast is showing snow over Connecticut. Bradley’s been reporting light snow for over an hour. Most of the state is still quiet. The center of the upcoming storm is over Arkansas!

Here’s the setup: The low moves from Arkansas to the Northeast. A Canadian high will block the low’s northerly progress, but also provide an ample supply of cold air.

New England’s geography takes over.

As the low moves over the relatively mild (compared to land) ocean it will explode! A low’s strength is measure by its central pressure. The pressure will drop like a rock!

The prediction shows a rapid fall from ~1016mb to ~985mb. That will enhance both precipitation and wind! More of each.

Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a linear storm. There will be a long period of light snow, then the main course.

Thursday will be cloudy with snow showers and flurries. A few inches will accumulate during the day. If you have to drive you probably will, though you shouldn’t. The wind will being picking up.

After dark, windblown snow becoming heavy at times. Strong northeasterly winds. You’ll want to be safely home before this bad boy gets going.

Some areas might see a foot. 5-8″ will probably be the average.

The snow ends Friday morning. It will be replaced by bitterly cold air with many spots dipping below zero Saturday morning.

You don’t want to know what it will be like here in SoCal tomorrow.

The Job My Computer Was Built For

editing-screen

Back in Connecticut my friend Peter Sachs has become infatuated with a utility quadcopter. It has an onboard camera. Really cool video (see below).

He’s in on the ground floor.

I though the video was a little shaky, so I asked him send it to me.

Here’s the power of the net. He sent me this high quality, full HD video in just a few minutes. That’s when my computer took over.

This PC was built specifically to edit video. It has a fast and powerful CPU with a video card chosen to make it even speedier.

I fired up Premier, Adobe’s video editor and dragged in Peter’s video. A couple of clicks later I’d installed a filter which dampened movement. Very math intensive. It worked in the background as I moved on.

On a separate channel I brought in the original video. Diagonal wipe. Font. Render. Lather. Rinse.

I sat back like the chief engineer on a large ship. My feet were up on the desk. On screen graphs showed my CPU working at 100% on all four cores. 11.5Gb of RAM, the max I allow for Premier, was fully in use.

You should be awed by this technology. I am awed by it. Video production has been democratized. Anyone who wants to make video can make video. The cost barrier has been shattered.

In the late 80s Channel 8 put in a room that could do most of what I’m doing today, but in standard def and on video tape. It cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. This setup is a hundredth the price with the ability to render work at today’s professional standards.

It’s just crazy. My career in TV started as film was moving out. Tape beat film for ease, but today’s technology blows away everything that came before.

Don’t be confused. I can’t edit like a professional editor. I don’t have the chops. The equipment itself only takes you so far.

I’d like to get more involved with video production. I’m fully equipped.

How To Get Connecticut Snowfall Totals

Doppler Versus Snow

This time of year there’s a steady barrage of incoming messages looking for Connecticut snowfall totals. Some folks are curious. Others want to make sure their plow contractor isn’t overcharging, or they’re plow contractors who’d like to charge more!

The info isn’t easily obtained, especially for smaller towns. If you’re looking for Connecticut snowfall totals, here’s where I go.

The most complete source is the Connecticut Department of Transportation Weather Roundup. These are collected every two hours at DOT yards across Connecticut. Because of the methodology used the cumulative snowfall total is always more than what’s actually settled on the ground.

The National Weather Service splits Connecticut between three Weather Service Forecast Offices. That makes things more difficult. You’ll have to look at all three Public Information Statements to put the info together.

Shoreline counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Upton, NY.

Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Taunton, MA.

Litchfield County: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Albany, NY.

Snowfall and other weather data is often critical in accidents and contract disputes. For those more exacting cases when just numbers on paper (or a screen) aren’t enough I provide forensic meteorological services for attorneys and insurance companies.

The Lay Of The Land

Google EarthWe are trying to get a feel for this new place. We are trying to find our way–constantly. GPS is an immense help, but I want to learn the area. It won’t happen overnight.

The image at the top is from Google World. It’s an approximation of what you’d see looking toward Irvine from a perch just offshore. The mountains have been exaggerated to allow more of the land contour to be seen.

Most of Southern Orange County is a coastal plain. It’s flat, but it slopes upward toward the mountains. By the time you get to our house, you’re over 400 feet in elevation.

The slope is so gentle I never noticed it until I looked at topo maps. We’re 11 miles from the ocean. 400 feet is not a big deal. But if you rolled a marble down the 133, it might make it to Laguna.

This time of year there’s virtually no natural above ground running water in SoCal. The dry season began last spring. In Irvine get our water from very deep wells and via aqueduct from Central California, hundreds of miles away. Rain here isn’t as critical as snow in the Sierras.

With little moisture, dust becomes a problem. We’re surrounded by construction and farming. There’s no way to stop it. Cleaning always means dusting. Never ending.

Land here is very valuable for homes. That’s odd considering how much of it there is. A large portion of the west is protected from development. That reduces what’s available.

Until those homes are built, the land is planted. Orange County’s big cash crop is strawberries. There are fields of ripening strawberries we pass nearly every day. It’s still strawberry season.

I have seen the observations from back in Connecticut today. The angst I suffered on days like this is not forgotten.

Trying To Keep A Low Profile In This Weather

NWS-EDD

It came via Twitter early today.

@JRRN27 @geofffox Hey Geoff, bet you don’t miss this snow!!!! –

It’s true. I don’t.

And there lies the rub.

Will I piss off old friends if I talk about the weather too much?

Roll down the window put down the top
Crank up the Beach Boys baby
Don’t let the music stop
We’re gonna ride it till we just can’t ride it no more

>From the South Bay to the Valley
>From the West Side to the East Side
Everybody’s very happy
‘Cause the sun is shining all the time
Looks like another perfect day
– “I Love LA” Randy Newman

We were in the eighties today. Even now, at 7:30 pm it’s 64&#176. Three of the next seven days are forecast over 70&#176. Six of seven will beat 60&#176.

Like most people who’ve moved, Helaine and I keep track of what’s going on elsewhere. The Internet makes that easy. I’ve been watching the cold and snow where my sister and folks live near Milwaukee and this weekend’s weather in Connecticut.

Snow is not a singular event. It takes different skills to navigate it at different stages.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S…AND WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. ANY STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BEGIN TO FREEZE AS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS. PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE LIKELY…ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROADS…WITH SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

USE CAUTION IF DRIVING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BE ALERT FOR AREAS OF ICE. – NWS Forecast Office Upton, NY

Better forecasting has changed how people deal with snow. Years ago snow was often a surprise. The exact accumulation might be off, but a forecast of snow today is nearly always followed by actual snow!

If you’re scared of driving in snow, you no longer have to! You can plan ahead. That’s taken a lot of people off the road in storms.

More snow is likely early Tuesday in Connecticut. It will be light, but of a long duration. That means additional inches turning dirtying snow back-to-white!

SoCal residents have little tolerance for any deviation from sunny and 70&#176s. It’s funny to see people in winter coats when it’s in the fifties. Scarves too.

My daughter confessed she enjoyed the last rainy day. It was a change from the monotony of blue skies.

I will resist, but I can see how that happens. It’s only rained parts of five days since we arrived in late June.

I Miss A Lot. I Don’t Miss Winter.

Lesean McCoy in the snow

Before we moved Helaine and I talked about this day. We discussed sitting at home, seeing winter on TV. Boy did we see it today!

Detroit was playing the Eagles at in Philly. Light snow was forecast. Nearly all of it would begin after two.

In reality heavy snow fell and started hours early. The game started with the field covered and Fox cameras unable to see much detail on-the-field. Offically at PHL it was heavy snow, &#188 mile visibility and a temperature of 27&#176 (19&#176 wind chill).

Let’s pause while I tell the Philadelphia meteorologists, I feel your pain. I’ve been on the wrong end of a bad forecast. It’s a horrendous feeling.

At first I thought it was really cool to see football played in a near blizzard. Then I realized it had removed most skill from the game! Kicks didn’t roll. Passes didn’t carry. Runners couldn’t make cuts.

Detroit’s first touchdown was followed by a two point conversion. No way a kicker would try the point after.

There was some satisfaction sitting here in SoCal. I won’t lie. My apologies. I feel your pain too.

The weather here wasn’t perfect, or even good. We were in the mid-50&#176s all day with mainly cloudy skies.

WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation GuidanceWe’ll get to 70&#176 before this week is out with no precipitation in the forecast. That makes it easier to take.

Back in Hamden the next twenty four hours will be an unavoidable pain in-the-ass. Snow, sleet, freezing rain. I don’t miss that.

I miss lots about Connecticut. I don’t miss winter.

The Advantage Of Not Forecasting On-The-Air

I’m watching the Pats/Broncos and remembering winter. They’re not pleasant memories.

If I was still forecasting in Connecticut, I’d have been talking about Wednesday’s potential storm for days already. Fellow forecasters, I feel your pain. The forecast has vacillated like a bride-to-be on “Say Yes To The Dress.”

Even today no one knows for sure. I certainly don’t.

However, the models have begun to stabilize. The forecast solution has become more consistent run-to-run.

Wednesday looks like rain all across the East Coast. In fact, it looks like rain most of the way from Canada to Florida! Early Thursday the rain turns to snow, but by that time the storm’s moisture should be mostly spent.

In New York City the potential is there for enough wind to keep the balloons grounded Thanksgiving Day. No one wants that.

Here in SoCal it’s temps near 70&#176 and a slight chance for rain Thursday and Friday. Slight.

What Kind Of Sex Toy Is This?

The text message I got this morning was a little cryptic: “Morning meeting crew eta 0900.” It was from Mike Hughes, our mover. Helaine found Mike’s “Working Robots” through Angie’s List.

IMAG0101-w1200-h1200It’s a out of the norm to use a local guy to move you cross country, but it was obvious as we packed, Mike was the right choice. We followed his solo journey from Connecticut via Facebook.

He took all the scary curves we took with Helaine’s SUV. It had to be scarier for him up in the cab.

At 9:00 AM Mike’s truck rolled up with my little car following on a short trailer. He brought muscle in the form of two guys supplied by a local OC mover.

IMAG0103-w1200-h1200Box-by-box they moved everything off the truck and into the house or garage. With each box a number was called and Stef checked it off the manifest.

Mike and the guys worked hard and fast. In two hours they were done! There were a couple of small scratches as might be expected, but everything is accounted for and we’re happy.

The final price was at the very low end of Mike’s original estimate. He said that made him happy. It certainly made us happy.

Over the past few days our house had begun looking like a home. Alas, we’re loaded with boxes and clutter again.

IMAG0108-w1200-h1200This is where Stef comes in. I’m not sure how she got this skillset, but she took charge of the unpacking… and discarding.

As much as we threw away before leaving Connecticut, it’s obvious we didn’t toss enough.

“What kind of sex toy is this,” she’d ask while holding up some kitchen implement which should have been tossed in Connecticut, but wasn’t.

We are not at the hoarder level, but there’s been plenty of accumulation over the decades. Doing without for four weeks has shown us many possessions are expendable.

As a team, Stef and Helaine emptied boxes and organized the kitchen. My guess is the kitchen will be the most difficult room in the house. It’s full of one-of-a-kind stuff, each of which should be stored with similar items.

My job was breaking down boxes and occasionally carrying items to the garage. I had it easy.

It’s tough for Helaine to part with stuff, but when you’ve got four or five of something, decisions must be made. “What kind of sex toy is this,” and away it goes!

Roxie and Doppler looked on through it all. There has been no growling for days. They have learned to share the space. Sure, Doppler wants all our attention, but she hasn’t done anything bad to make that point.

This is more than a one day job. Unpacking will continue on Monday. And we’ll be joined by a guy coming to hang ceiling fans and perform other minor miracles.

We’re moving right along.

They Just Don’t Know

It’s overcast. That’s a first for our two weeks in the OC. Helaine (and Cousin Melissa) both reported a few drops. Literally a few drops! Here at the house nada. This is typical SoCal summer precipitation–close to non-existent.

I know. Talking about this weather is cruel and unusual punishment for my friends back in Connecticut where dew points there are well into the seventies.

Once again, Connecticut is the poster child for bad hair days. There’s no relief with that level of humidity!

Beyond that radar (at 7:58 PM EDT/4:58 PDT) is still showing enough rain to demand a Flash Flood Warning for parts of North Central and Northeastern Connecticut.

You guys can’t catch a break.

People here will complain about today’s weather. Too humid.

They just don’t know.

City Streets At 60 MPH

Sand Canyon Avenue  Irvine  CA 1   Google Maps

I’m probably dwelling on this a little too much, but I’m blown away to find city streets with 55 or even 60 mph speed limits. How is that even possible? I haven’t been able to force myself to drive that fast yet. It still seems wrong.

After driving and looking and thinking the problem through, it’s beginning to make sense. This is part of the planning in a planned city you don’t think about.

Irvine has the advantage of coming into existence after the automobile. The car has always been king. Connecticut has lots of roads designed for wagons and livestock.

Here’s how they do it in Irvine.

The main arterial streets are limited access. It’s not quite as limited as an I-95, but it’s pretty restrictive. There is no parking. No homes face these streets. There is no driveway access.

Most of the streets within developments stay there. Only a few well placed secondary streets exit to the major arteries. If there’s no traffic light at the intersection, right turns only

The purpose of the major thoroughfares is to efficiently move people over moderate distances. They do.

Sand Canyon Avenue  Irvine  CA   Google MapsWhere two main roads intersect, each gets wider. We stopped for a light on Sand Canyon at Irvine Blvd. There were seven lanes. Not seven lanes curb-to-curb, but seven lanes in each roadway where it approached the intersection.

That’s three for through traffic and two each for left and right turns.

I don’t think there are any standalone stores in Irvine. These major streets are pretty sterile. Few distractions.

Everything is clustered in conveniently located shopping centers. None have entrances near the actual intersection.

Interestingly, the one road where this doesn’t work is I-5. It’s a very large Interstate with lots of traffic and slowdowns.

The center of West Hartford or heavy duty shopping like the Post Road or Berlin Turnpike could never exist in this city. The are lots of open air places to eat, but nothing like The Place in Guilford.

There is a tradeoff for everything.