Wednesday Evening Video Forecast Update

You liked it yesterday, so I’ve returned today with a forecast update and a brief appearance by Doppler, founder of DopplerDesign.com (shameless plug).

My On-Camera Forecast

With snow on the way, I thought I’d go to the maps and show you a little of what’s going to happen.

No Business Like Snow Business

Here’s the problem. The atmosphere is infinitely complex. Anything anywhere affects everything else. Our models can only hope to approximate.

Over the years meteorologists have decided the best way to forecast changes in the atmosphere is to treat it as the physics problem it is. That means computer models full of math. Weather modelling is among the most complex tasks run through supercomputers.

Here’s the problem. The atmosphere is infinitely complex. Any change (or observational error) anywhere affects everything else. Our models can only hope to approximate the actual truth.

They get pretty close, but on a night like tonight where the difference of a few degrees (temperature or latitude, take your pick) can make a difference the computers fall short!

Right now the 18Z NAM is calling for half a foot of snow at Hartford before an icy mix glazes everything and puts a cap on accumulations. The 18Z GFS says under a half inch of snow followed by sleet then rain.

The forecast is easier near the shore where the turnover to rain will happen sooner (if there’s any snow at all).

It’s not that these models are so different. It’s just a tiny difference decides snow versus rain. Think on/off switch versus volume knob.

Both solutions are tough to buy into! My gut feeling is to take a compromise. That’s what I’ll be doing on the news tonight.

More than likely the final call will be 2-5″ inland before the changeover with mostly slush then rain on the shore.

Is this guaranteed? Hello?

What does look reasonably certain is the onset of precipitation after noon. That means Wednesday morning is good, but Wednesday night isn’t.

I’ll be up most of the night checking, rechecking then rechecking again. I never sleep easy before it snows.

Back To Work–Back To Weather

We’re under high pressure Sunday. The air will be exceptionally dry. Sunday will be a big static electricity day!

Vacation for me the last week. A little Florida. A little Hamden. I’m back on FoxCT tonight. I have to get back into the rhythm of the atmosphere. Forecasts are made every day. You’re prepped for what you’ll see by what you have seen.

Right now I’m doing some early recon.

It’s been a crazy winter. Late October crushed snow records. Actually, it just pretty much crushed the state. After that, silence.

Of course I keep looking. There’s just little to report.

We’re under high pressure Sunday. The air will be exceptionally dry. Sunday will be a big static electricity day!

It’s possible there’ll be snow showers Monday evening. The GFS has .2″ of snow in Hartford. That’s tiny… and that’s it for the week!

There’s still plenty of time. We’re bound to get a few storms this season even if they’re clustered (as they were last year).

Of course I’ll keep looking.

Meteorological Winter

There’s no need to hype. You will watch if we predict flurries or a blizzard.

Yesterday, December 1, is considered the beginning of meteorological winter. Astronomical winter isn’t for another three weeks or so. It doesn’t matter. Historically, this is when the weather weather season starts.

So, here I am on a new station and some time in the next few weeks I’m going to lay out my philosophy for winter weather forecasting.

Though I hate winter that won’t temper my what I say. I don’t deal in wishcasting.

I will not consistently get the accumulation right. It’s not because I won’t try. There is only so much science has figured out. The good news is exact accumulations only matter a little.

Anything from a flurry to a few inches has the same effect. School is cancelled. Traffic slows. Mostly people get by.

Two to about eight inches most people work, but many appointments and optional trips are cancelled. No one’s travelling that really doesn’t have to.

Above eight inches the state stops. Essential services continue slowly. Weatherman driving Premier Subaru’s&#185 find a way to get to work but most people don’t bother. Lt. Paul Vance appears on all television stations.

There’s no need to hype. You will watch if we predict flurries or a blizzard.

We’re pretty good on storm timing and whether it actually will snow. I can’t remember the last time snow was a surprise. Long time.

I use “we” because most meteorologists come to similar conclusions with the daily forecast. That’s why the most important criteria in where you get the forecast is who does the best job explaining. Do you actually understand the incoming storm? That’s much more than numbers.

I hope I’m that person for you. You should listen to whomever you’re comfortable with.

There is more pressure on the weather staff when snow is in the forecast. Tensions are high.

Rachel Frank told me she’s tightly wound when storms come. Me too. Someone pack the Maalox.

Missing a winter storm forecast upsets me greatly. They are my lowest moments.

&#185 – I am the spokesman for Premier Subaru, do their commercials and happily drive the car.

The Kind Of Weather That Tries Men’s Souls

Computer guidance should help my forecast prep. In reality it often makes things worse!

Now I remember why I hate winter so much. It’s the angst before the storms. Two are currently in the offing. I wish I was more confident about my solutions.

Computer guidance should help my forecast prep. In reality it often makes things worse! Tonight each model has a somewhat different answer to the question of snow. Some show a few inches in Northern Connecticut. That’s a reasonable amount, especially if all you are counting was what will fall.

If it were only that simple!

Most of tonight’s flakes will melt on contact. What percentage? Who knows. Significant numbers, sure. It’s tough to accurately quantify. With a few higher elevation exceptions tonight will be a minor nuisance and not much more.

Saturday is a different story entirely. The NAM, which has been the snow monger for tonight’s system is stingy Saturday. In fact it puts no snow over Connecticut!

The European, remarkably accurate during much of the hurricane season, the UKMET and GFS all bring a major Nor’easter through on Saturday. We’re talking plowable snow and a howling wind.

The problem is Connecticut’s trees are full of leaves. A storm like this has the potential to cause nearly as much limb and power trouble as Irene… with snow on top!

I’m not yet saying it’s going to happen–just that it might. There’s a significant chance. I’ll have to work that into the forecast.

Contradictory solutions from the computer models gives me pause. They’re suppose to clear things up, not muddy my view of the future.

These problems can probably be traced to Hurricane Rina, Saturday’s moisture source. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I’ll be writing about this again later. Right now I’m not a happy camper.

I Won’t Be Disappointed By A Disappointing Snow

Just thirteen words and he got to the essence of my professional life. I don’t miss the angst, but the angst was worth it to get to the other stuff

It was 2:04 AM when an Instant Messenger window opened on my PC. My friend Bob in Florida was up. He’s a meteorologist and as nocturnal as I am. He’d been reading my blog.

I am enjoying seeing you enjoy the weather future without the stress. Bittersweet?

Just thirteen words to get to the essence of my professional life. I don’t miss the angst. The angst was worth it to get to the other stuff. That’s the bittersweet part.

I still forecast. I’m just not as worried about forecasts that go bad.

I suspect there will be some sad forecasters tomorrow, especially those who called for large amounts of snow. What’s coming looks more like a minor pain than anything else.

Helaine said the supermarket was crowded today. Someone didn’t get the memo!

Most areas of the state should get under four inches. There could be a little more in Fairfield County and parts of Litchfield. Two to four wet inches will be the norm.

The vast majority of what falls will fall overnight so you’ll wake up to it in the morning.

There are always a number of wild cards in the weather. This little storm is working against the month of March. As I type this it’s cloudy, but there’s still plenty of incoming solar radiation (insolation) warming the pavement. Temperatures won’t drop below freezing until the middle of the night. Some of what falls early on will melt on contact.

There is a certain ease I have today. That’s probably because this forecast is being done in my pajamas and not a suit!

Hurricane Earl And The Narrower Cone

The cone starts narrow and widens over time. The idea is the farther out a forecast goes the more fudge factor is necessary. With Hurricane Earl as close as it is we are now on the outside of the narrow end of the cone.

Here’s a photo I posted on Facebook a few days ago. It’s me during the manic days that lead up to a storm. I left work tonight exhausted even though we all know I don’t really do any physical labor (does map pointing count?).

The Hurricane Center’s forecast features the “Cone of Uncertainty.” The name describes it fittingly, but it’s still a dumb name because everyone immediately thinks of Get Smart.

Cred buster!

The cone starts narrow and widens over time. The idea is the farther out a forecast goes the more fudge factor is necessary. With Hurricane Earl as close as it is we are now on the outside of the narrow end of the cone. There is nearly no chance of Earl hitting Connecticut directly.

My friend Ryan who forecasts for Channel 30 tweeted:

Tomorrow evening will look like any other “rainy night”. I don’t expect any damage or anything more than isolated power problems.

He very well could be right though he is a shade more optimistic than I am. A nasty rainy night sounds more reasonable to me, but we are separated by shades. I do expect there will be some gusty winds especially in Southeastern Connecticut. Isolated power problems? Absolutely.

In any event Ryan and I and every other meteorologist around has done their best to allay fears. There may be people at the TV stations who’d like the storm’s impact perceived larger than it is. None of them work in weather.

I got an email this evening from Bob, a writer friend in Guilford.

Your blog pics of that storm, and your awestruck description of it, seriously scare the hell out of me.

Is that the impression I left? Though most casual viewers only remember the big storms I look at them all–even those six hour wonders that get named then deteriorate in under a day! Hurricane Earl was (it isn’t anymore) an exceptional work of nature. It had everything you should fear from a hurricane except a threatening path.

Now the waiting begins. The forecast will hardly change unless Earl totally flies by without saying hello.

There is little as satisfying as nailing the forecast. You probably don’t remember the storms I downplay as much as the ones forecast to strike. You would if I was wrong!

Hurricane Earl Is Coming Into Focus

It’s possible the storm will pass in such a way half the state doesn’t even realize it was there! That would make me happy.

The closer a storm gets the more it comes into focus… at least that’s the hope. Hurricane Earl is a day away from the area. There’s still no reason to think we’ll get struck directly.

Over the past few minutes I’ve looked at loops from the WHRF, GFS and NAM models. They’re all slightly different though very similar. The worst of the three lives up to my earlier forecasts. The others bring less.

It’s possible the storm will pass in such a way half the state doesn’t even realize it was there! That would make me happy.

Earl Envelopes Me — Featuring Ann Nyberg And Her Webcam

It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

My website traffic’s up. I would guess you’re here wondering what I think of Earl? I’m in awe of this storm.

When the satellite map appeared on my screen tonight I marveled at the natural beauty of Hurricane Earl. Not all hurricanes are alike. Earl is classic.

Tonight Earl is exquisitely curved. The eye, 30 nautical miles in diameter, is nearly round. Earl is undisturbed, gorging on energy transferred from the warm waters below.

Few storms look like this. Most have faults or flaws. There’s a reason not every storm is as strong as Earl. A lot of things have to fall into place. It seldom happens.

At some point Earl will interact with land or colder water or the strong westerlies still to come. He will weaken.

I don’t know everything, but I’ve watched a lot of these storms. I am very intellectually curious in matters of science and technology.

Often during storms I chat with my friend Bob down in Tallahassee. He is one of a handful of the brightest minds in this field. Our conversations often center around interesting and esoteric observations. It’s stuff almost no one looks at. We talk about buoy readings a lot. Sometime we rate the hurricane forecasters at NHC as if they were eligible to be drafted onto some “fantasy meteorology” team.

“2 min,” he’ll type and two minutes later a link arrives. At the other end a beautifully rendered map or chart created on-the-spot to illustrate a point. Few people think this way. Fewer have this skill. It’s sort of amazing.

It’s funny how some viewers interpret what I’m doing. This was blogged this evening:

Our local meteorologist Geoff Fox says Earl should not be that much of a threat to the Connecticut coast, but you can hear the excitement in his voice. You just know he’s waiting for the big one.

Really? I just want to grit my teeth and let out a small scream. Everything I’ve done has been to try and balance what we’ll see with what at the moment is a freak of nature! I don’t want to see the big one or even the medium one. I have too much respect… too much fear.

I often get emails and phone calls trying to sell me on a more exciting forecast. Their logic always has multiple ifs. It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

Ann Nyberg came to the Weather Center tonight. She interviewed me for her website.

Hurricane Earl: The Sweating Begins

The sweating begins.

You’ll be glad to know most of the dependable guidance continues to show Hurricane Earl south of Long Island then out-to-sea. Some of the models are more westerly than others, but for most we get a rotten day with some limbs/power down and enough rain to gum things up.

This time before a storm I get emails and other messages asking if the author can do something on a given day. I don’t answer those. I don’t want someone to get into an accident and then, whether my fault or not, say “I was unsure, so I asked Geoff if I could go.”

The answer is always “No!” You cannot.

He’s not requesting advice. He’s asking permission!Not granted.

Sorry.

I have worked hard to allay fears, to reassure the viewers. Now that scenario better come true. Being wrong here would be pretty awful for all concerned!

I’ll be sweating all the models and anything else I can get my hands on. Now that Earl is closer there will be shorter term models available. More confusion!

So far the track has stayed reasonably in line. This would seem a logical path based on past storms.

Most likely Friday on TV you’ll have a good view as Earl slides by. He should be within radar range. We’ll have hi-res imagery to show. If you enjoy this sort of thing you”ll have fun, but from afar.

I have been forecasting in Connecticut over 26 years. The pressure to find the correct forecast answer has never seemed greater.

Is There Bias In Forecasting Hurricane Earl?

In nearly every case Earl tracked west of the forecast!

If this remains the case Earl snuggles a little closer to Connecticut than has been said. Not good!

My friend Bob at Florida State took all the official fixes for Earl (since Earl became a tropical depression through this evening) and plotted them on a map. Then he added the official Hurricane Center forecast. Click the map on the left to make it large enough to read.

There is an unfortunate inconsistency to this data. In nearly every case Earl tracked west of the forecast!

If this remains the case Earl snuggles a little closer to Connecticut than has been said. Not good!

The Hurricane Center is populated with some of the smartest minds in tropical weather. Hopefully they’ll catch on or there’s a method to their madness I just don’t see.