Some folks like snow. Some folks don’t. Count me in the don’t column.
His love doesn’t make any difference does it? We don’t control it. We can only hope to be right.
I am a poker player. I can’t tell you how many pots I’ve lost while playing my hand perfectly. Stuff happens. Educated predictions don’t always work. Still, this potential Nor’easter for Wednesday is tantalizingly well modeled by the computers.
Actually, there’s no way to know that until after the storm! It’s been consistently modeled. That’s for sure.
If you forecast weather you begin to assume that consistent outputs from the computers mean they have a handle on what’s going on.
Wait. I’m going to add a proviso again.
Consistent output means the storm’s relative position and strength remains constant run-after-run-after-run. It decidedly doesn’t mean consistency in predicting how much snow. That’s never consistent! The amount… the “quantitative precipitation forecast” is never right. Never! And, of course, it’s what the viewers want the most.
Here’s what I think I know.
- Wednesday start, just before dawn.
- Wettish snow to start, but becoming fluffier over the day.
- Strong, gusty northeast winds–a classic Nor’easter.
- Reasonable chance for thundersnow and/or a snow burst in the afternoon.
- At least a half foot of snow. Probably much more.
The amount of snow is less important than most people make it out to be. It’s like worrying about changing diapers before your child is born. Trust me–diapers are the least of your worries!
Once the ground is covered 90% of the problems are in place. Yup, somewhere between ¼″ and ½″ is all it takes. This state screeches to a halt!
Three inches is another break point. Until then snow is easily cleared. Above three inches and many roads lose lanes as snow piles up at the curb.
Once we’re above eight inches additional snow hardly matters! Pretty much all optional outdoor activity has been cancelled. Cars on residential streets are plowed in, much to the consternation of their owners.
For me it’s a better time to travel because nearly everyone else is off the road. I am a speedy driver except in snow! I respect snow.
Most likely Wednesday’s storm is in this last accumulation category. Nearly everything will stop!
Five more model runs (every six hours) before it hits. I’ll deconstruct them all.