This afternoon the National Hurricane Center turned a low off South Carolina into Tropical Storm Alberto. You’re not the only one surprised to see a named tropical storm so early.
Joe Furey said the GFS model had something like this ten days ago, but it wasn’t anything I was concentrating on.
The Hurricane Center’s on the case. Their latest discussion is three long paragraphs. Conclusion: we really don’t know.
Here’s an example:
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING…AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING.
Weakening and strengthening! Where is Miss Cleo when you need her?
The official call is 50 mph, but satellite and radar observations imply it’s weaker. I can’t imagine how it could strengthen.
There’s a reason the hurricane season starts later than this. Tropical systems only exist under very specific conditions. Tonight those conditions only exist marginally and in a very small areas.
By midweek Alberto should be out in the Atlantic, getting raggedy and losing its tropical characteristics.