The Storm’s Over — The Numbers Are In

The dry air was the wild card. Radar showed moderate snow over all of Connecticut for hours-and-hours before anything hit the ground.

snow-shovel-on-the-steps.jpgThe snow has come and gone. There’s never a bullseye, but the forecast was reasonably close. If success is judged by number of complaints, or lack thereof, I’m doing fine. Here are the final DOT numbers. I have also added the Boston and New York NWS snow totals, which include Connecticut, for the Dec 20-21, 2009 storm at the end of this entry.

Not everyone was as lucky. A friend who forecasts in Springfield sent a text message saying he’d received nothing! “Bust of the decade,” he said. Ouch. Been there. I know exactly what he’s going through.

I was right about Southeastern Connecticut getting the most snow followed by the shoreline in general. The snow was fluffy and windblown as predicted. Accumulations were generally in line with my numbers. My call for the Northwest Hills and most of the area directly adjacent to the Massachusetts line was a few inches higher than the actual totals.

I wrote about this last night, but it bears repeating the most unusual and interesting part of this storm was the exceptionally dry air. During the summer we sometimes see 30 grams of water content per square meter. Last night it was around 1 gram per cubic meter!

The dry air was the wild card. Radar showed moderate snow over all of Connecticut for hours-and-hours before anything hit the ground. Once the atmospheric column over any location became saturated light snow turned to heavy snow. I’d never seen a situation quite like this before. It cut inches off all the accumulations.

It’s a shame this storm will impact Christmas shopping. Otherwise we’re lucky it came on a Saturday night when travel is usually light.

And now the dig out begins.

(NWS totals after the jump)

Continue reading “The Storm’s Over — The Numbers Are In”

Fixing My Hyper Cruise Video

I’ve spent some time over the past two days trying to ‘deshake’ it. I think I’ve succeeded!

A few days ago I posted some hyperspeed video of our shipboard departure from Nassau. It was OK, but I was disappointed. It’s very unstable video.

I’ve spent some time over the past two days trying to ‘deshake’ it. I think I’ve succeeded!

My corrections were made using VirtualDub with the Deshaker plugin. Both are GPL licensed freeware. Both program and plugin are much better than their documentation would imply!

First the original:

Now the corrected version:

Comments welcome, but I think the difference is large.

One Week Past The Bahamas

I’m working up the coordinates for the ICBM.

A tweet from my friend Farrell a few moments ago:

“fmeisel: due to the weather conditions, working from my home office rear patio/pool. Currently 86f (30c); real feel temperatures 90f (32c). (51 seconds ago from TwitterBerry)

I’m working up the coordinates for the ICBM.

Last week at this time Helaine and I were strolling the streets of Nassau. Without fear of contradiction, it IS better in the Bahamas.

Anchored Off Half Moon Cay

A cruise is for relaxing–and we have relaxed. Still, a lot has gone on since yesterday afternoon when I last posted.

After dinner we headed to the theater for the evening’s show. We were worried about getting good seats so we showed up early which meant we were there in time for the end of BINGO. Call me a snobbish member of the media elite, but why do people play this game? Adding to the ‘fun’ was a cruise staff member who brought insincerity to new heights and who Helaine said looked like Robin Leach’s illegitimate son in ill fitting clothes. Too many buffets!

A new set of comedians came on board in Nassau. The first guy was billed as “Physical Comedian Howard Mincone,” so I figured Carrot Top or Gallagher (or, more likely Gallagher II). Not funny! At points embarrassingly not funny. I actually felt bad for this guy. We would have left, but we were close enough to the stage to be seen.

He was followed by Frank Del Pizzo. The name was familiar though his act was not. This was standard fare stand-up and he was pretty good. We’ll go back for the “R” rated show tomorrow night. Please–tell Howard not to come!

God–I hope Howard doesn’t Google his name from the ship.

After the show we wandered to the casino and, again, I sat down for poker. My pre-cruise expectation was the table would be full of poker neophytes–easy pickings. BINGO! Last night I quickly won $160 from a $50 stake playing $1/$2 no limit. I was called down and paid off twice when reasonable players would have folded.

There’s no guarantee the pickings will be as easy tonight or that I didn’t confuse good luck with good play. We’ll see.

We woke up this morning anchored off a beautiful island. Carnival calls it Half Moon Cay–but that’s not it’s real name. Carnival got this island when it bought Holland America. The Half Moon was Henry Hudson’s ship of exploration. Half Moon Cay is just too convenient.

We watched the island’s little tenders bob up and down as they tied up to a hatchway off Deck 3. It was breezy and cool as we set out. Some people were already returning to get sweatshirts. Helaine headed to the room to get ours, but they were never needed.

The Sun was bright. The water was mild. The beach was a pale powder with no rocks nor shells. The ocean threw waves just a few inches tall.

There were lots of people on the beach, but also plenty of lounge chairs. I took some photos and video then joined Helaine at the edge of the crowd. I laid on my back and quickly fell asleep. This is the life!

We headed back to the ship for some lunch, though by the smell of things there was a barbeque somewhere on the beach.

I continue to be impressed by this cruise. Our tickets were reasonably priced. The value is high. We have not been bored. There’s always something to do or see or eat!

——

In our cabin we have access to CNN and CNN International. It quickly becomes obvious CNN is CNN Dumb compared to CNN International. Are Americans really that stupid that we need newscasts dilluted with sensationalized stories of crime and style?

The world is important. We miss so much.

——-

I am reading emails, but responding…. not until on shore. The Internet is priced like gold!

Funky Nassau

We took a walk down the dock and up to Bay Street, which I think is the main drag. The city is bustling and the people seemed friendly. Three ships means seven or eight thousand visitors additional in one day!

We got an elephant! This was Helaine’s greatest anticipation and biggest fear. She wanted towel animals–sorely missed on our NCL cruise to Mexico.

When I went back to the room for a few minutes, he was waiting on the bed–our white elephant. Helaine’s sunglasses finished the look as his eyes.

It’s funny how a tiny stateroom can really have enough room–but it does. There is plenty of closet space and four small drawers. We put the suitcases under our bed and some bulky stuff on the top of the closet.

Last night had prime rib and lobster on the menu. I decided on the prime rib, but Helaine asked the waiter to bring me both–and he did. I’m a growing boy.

We went to the smaller showroom for Tony Esposito’s “R” rated show. Trust me–we’ve heard plenty worse without the “R” warning. I’ve become a Tony Esposito fan. He’s very funny.

I have a suspicion he’s a lot less good old boy/redneck than he claims. No–he is from the south, but from time-to-time something sophisticated comes out which belies his claimed simplicity.

It was another night with plenty of sleep! The ship really isn’t rocking that much so I suspect it’s the “less drowsy” Dramamine I’ve been taking. So, as of this morning I’ve gone off the meds, but not quite cold turkey. Before the trip Helaine started me on ginger capsules. I am very prone to seasickness. We’ll see how I fare without help.

We woke up docked in Nassau, Bahamas. Next to us was the Disney Wonder and alongside it Carnival’s Valor. We are the smallest of the three ships even with our seventy some-odd-thousand tons of displacement.

We took a walk down the dock and up to Bay Street, which I think is the main drag. The city is bustling and the people seemed friendly. Three ships means seven or eight thousand visitors additional in one day!

Among the coolest things is a lone policeman on a pedestal directing traffic with his gloved hands. He is all spit and polish and precision. There had to be a dozen little camcorders trained on him. One of the few times I’ve seen people recording video.

On the horizon Atlantis dominates. There are two huge hotel buildings. Helaine and I both have heard stories of people being nickel-and-dimed incessantly while there. We passed.

This is a short port call. We’ll be leaving around 6:00 o’clock.

Another Evening With Frances

There is one thing that has been established beyond the shadow of a doubt this week. Everyone has a connection to Florida. Whether it’s a friend or relative, someone living there or just visiting, we all have an equity stake in Florida.

Wherever I go people ask me about Hurricane Frances. We’ve all seen what happened on the West Coast of Florida, and this storm promises to be stronger. It’s no surprise that it scares the daylights out of normally unflappable people

Today, for the first time, the computer guidance is beginning to agree. I’ve been pointing to Jupiter/Hobe Sound and the official pronouncements aren’t far off that mark. Of course the hurricane actually has to perform as forecast… to ‘verify’ in the vernacular of meteorologists, which is never guaranteed.

A few things struck me this evening.

On-the-air, we played an ABC report which included an interview with, what I suspect, a government official in the Bahamas. He complained that maybe they had underestimated the storm.

What planet is he on? The predictions for the Bahamas couldn’t have been more dire if we had said a fiery meteor was plunging their way! The Hurricane Center, which cooperates with the government of the Bahamas in hurricane prediction, went out of its way to scare the crap out of Bahamians – and for good reason.

Unfortunately, areas with a lot of tourism often underplay warnings and later downplay damage. It’s not good for business. Not many people are going to want to go to San Salvador Island after today’s report of 120 mph sustained winds. Nassau might get a close scare. Freeport could get a direct hit.

I really miss having radar that sees Frances at this stage. Tonight the satellite imagery started showing some ‘weakness’ on the hurricane’s western flank. I commented to my friend Bob that I thought the storm would be downgraded… and it was at 11:00 PM&#185. Now Frances is Category 3.

It’s funny, but when satellite imagery begins to show a change, it doesn’t strike me as soon as the image actually comes in. It usually takes a while, staring at the satellite loop, before the trend takes hold. This is most frustrating, especially during winter storms, when I go on the air then look at the same data after my weathercast and begin to question impending changes.

The fact that Frances is weaker tonight doesn’t mean too much of anything. Storms naturally get weaker and stronger in response to their immediate environment. There are guesses why it happened, but no one knows. Hurricane experts are baffled by unknown forces all the time. And, for some unknown reason, hurricanes only have a finite amount of time they can spend as major storms. Again, no one knows why nature works this way.

Since all of weather is guided by the laws of physics, we should understand all the forces at work. We do not.

The official forecast is for Hurricane Frances to regain strength in its final march over open water to Florida. The Hurricane Center’s number for Saturday at 8:00 AM EDT is 140 mph, equaling Hurricane Frances strongest point.

It really doesn’t matter. The difference between 125 mph and 140 mph isn’t all that much in the general scheme of things. Even a minimal hurricane will cause significant damage.

More than the wind, I am worried about Frances losing her steering currents and wandering aimlessly, or at a very slow speed, in the warm Atlantic waters between the Bahamas and Florida. An extended period adjacent to land might be worse than a quick, but direct, hit. There will be that much more time for flooding and tornadoes and wind. The forecast will become exponentially more difficult (and less accurate). There will be that much more terror.

&#185 – I have no idea how this happened, but the Hurricane Center issued its 11:00 PM bulletin with the wrong wind speed! Frances was called Category 4, though it had been downgraded to Category 3. You would think something like this would be vetted.