An admission. Other meteorologists remember storm details vividly. Not me. Storms are transients. I try not to get too attached.

I used to be astounded by Dr. Mel’s ability in this regard. He remembered individual storms the way Pete Rose remembers individual pitches.

It’s a skill set I don’t have.

There are a few memorable exceptions. Hurricanes and tornadoes, obviously, qualify. So too do major forecast busts. I have a little experience with those too.

The weather tonight reminds me of a particularly painful forecast disaster. My best recollection says this storm’s doppelganger hit in the mid-80s. It was snow. The rudimentary models of that era did a poor job understanding its complex dynamics.

I sat on the air at WTNH and hour-after-hour pointed to the radar, said I could see the storm’s caboose and that it would be gone within the next few hours. I said that through eight or nine inches of additional snow!

It still makes me cringe.

It still makes Helaine cringe. She had to console me.

Viewers were brutal afterward. They wouldn’t forgive easily. For months, no matter where I went I got called on that forecast! It took over a year to for me to remove that one storm’s stench.

As with our current system, this one was obviously moving east into the Atlantic. What wasn’t as obvious was an upper low to the west which sucked moisture back from the ocean.

Sure the low’s center was moving away, but it made no difference. It’s influence was increasing. That more than compensated for its reduced proximity.

It’s a rare scenario you might not see for a decade or more. I still get the heebie jeebies thinking about it.

Glad not to make that mistake again tonight.

The Sun is shining. The birds are chirping. Half my front lawn is snow free. It’s so easy to think spring.

Not so fast, Bucko.

With snow, accumulation = intensity * duration. You can get a significant snow from a brief heavy burst or many hours of light snow. Odds are we’re getting the latter Wednesday morning through Friday morning. 48+ hours of precipitation seems likely!

As has been the case recently, the GFS and Euro disagree on most of the finer points.

The Euro is colder. Often I’ll look at the 850mb 0°C line–where the temperature at ~5,000 feet is 32° Fahrenheit. It’s an excellent rain/snow predictor. That line is farther south on the Euro, meaning we’re more likely to see all snow even on the shoreline. The GFS solution leans toward mixed precipitation for the first 12-15 hours.

I’d go whole heartedly with the Euro, except for the addition of the SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast) model. Uh oh, another American model?

The SREF goes out 87 hours and has been optimized to,

address the aspects of winter weather events beyond accumulation – specifically duration, timing, and intensity.

The SREF is actually 21 slightly different models run simultaneously to produce an ensemble. Like its American cousin, the GFS, it’s leaning toward mixed precipitation for the first half day.

Truth is in both the Euro or American models, Wednesday’s precipitation looks light. Even as all snow we’ll get no more than a few inches by nightfall Wednesday.

By Thursday all the models come into agreement on Ptype (precipitation type)–Snow!

By this time the forward progress of this storm has been slowed to a crawl. The GFS shows the central low pinwheeling in place most of the day!

Here’s the bottom line: Mainly light snow inland, with light mixed precipitation on the shoreline beginning Wednesday morning. Accumulations by Wednesday sunset just a few inches inland. Travel Wednesday will be a little slippery, not terribly bad. However, the storm continues.

Light snow overnight Wednesday/Thursday with light to moderate snow continuing through late morning Friday (a little longer toward I-395). Thursday will be a more difficult travel day. Friday morning too!

Final accumulations 6-12″ inland, with highest amounts north of Hartford, in the hillier terrain Northeastern and Northwestern Connecticut and inland near the Rhode Island border. On the shoreline, 4-8″ with lowest amounts in the New London/Groton/Stonington area.

Remember, in this case ‘final’ isn’t until Friday!

More updates to come.

Earlier this week my ears perked up. Friends on Facebook were asking about an upcoming weekend snow storm. I’m not as bothered by snow now that my commute to work is primarily over carpet, but I still enjoy running the forecast numbers.

It didn’t take long for the forecast of snow turn to a forecast of rain. It makes no difference. Once a day has been associated with snow it’s tough to convince people otherwise.

I just looked at the Euro and GFS models and they’re both showing mainly rain. Run-by-run the models have been warmer over Connecticut.

As the storm pulls away and cold air rushes in there will be a turn to snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It’s possible a few communities might get an inch or two, but if the ground is wet (and I expect it will be), much of that snow will be eaten by puddles!

A nasty weekend? Yes.

Net snow effect on Connecticut: not much!