Seriously, It’s A Big Deal

Forget for a moment our shortage of potable water. Native Southern Californians pine for cloudy, rainy days. I see it in neighbors and co-workers. They’re excited about Friday’s potential.

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You wouldn’t believe how much time I’ve spent looking at the forecast for Friday. There’s a chance for rain in Palm Springs, a rarity in May.

Tiny. Miniscule. Little. Your choice. Not much is going to fall. Think interval wipers.

It’s a big deal to my viewers, so it’s a big deal to me.

Forget for a moment our shortage of potable water. Native Southern Californians pine for cloudy, rainy days. I see it in neighbors and co-workers. They’re excited about Friday’s potential.

I moved to California for the opposite reason, but I’m willing to play along. I understand.

I face a new problem in Palm Springs that didn’t exist for me in Connecticut. Our valley is small and the mid-range weather models have a tough time seeing it. Their grids are too coarse.

Usually Connecticut’s weather is homogenous. Everyone gets similar weather. Not so for the Coachella Valley versus its neighbors.

Approaching storms are obvoius. It’s easy to say LA and the OC will get a few sprinkles Thursday and more rain Friday. That doesn’t mean any of it will reach Palm Springs. We’re nestled between mountains.

Even nearby spots live Riverside and Moreno Valley will likely see rain. They’re on the other side of some tall mountains, the San Jacinto and Santa Rosa ranges.

Yesterday, I got to use the high res CANSAC WRF run. Its 2 kilometer horizontal resolution makes a huge difference. It only goes out 72 hours, so it’s only now becoming useful. Today, the 15 hour HRRR will add more insight.

There’s more to forecasting in the desert than I expected. More wind to consider. More storms that get close, but miss. It’s very intricate. More microscale than mesoscale.

It’s a lot of fun.

It’s Winter In SoCal

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The NWS chat channel has been up in another browser window most of the past two days. It’s a meeting place for media, emergency managers and NWS forecasters. All the chatter has been winter related.

Finally after a year and a half, SoCal winter has found the Foxes.

The main player is a storm from the north which managed to stay inland and stay cold. It doesn’t happen often.

Indio, at the far end of the Coachella Valley, only got to 53 today. Every other December 31 on record was warmer by at least two degrees and the record goes back to 1894!

We’re about as far south as Charleston, SC. Snow fell at an altitude of 1350 feet above sea level.

Hundreds of cars were stranded in dozens of spots. Parts of I-10 and I-15 were snowcovered. Driving in snow is much different here where slopes are steep and long. Chains are required.

My cousin, Melissa told Helaine this was the coldest she could remember. The wind was probably her deciding factor. We had gusts in the mid 30s overnight. Trash cans were flying. Some mountaintops and passes went over 60 mph.

The Sun was out this morning. I looked toward Santiago Peak, around dozen miles from here, and saw white!

“Be right back,” I told Helaine, then hopped in the car to take the two shots above.

By early next week we’ll be back in the mid 70s. It’s winter in SoCal.

I Agree. The Weather Is Nuts

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Bill Koczocik posted the photo above to Facebook. He didn’t say where, but I recognize the Channel 8 parking lot. Not much in that scene has changed over the last thirty years. Well, except that damn snow.

For those counting at home, Connecticut DOT’s plows have been on the road 19 separate times this season!

Over 29″ of snow at Bridgeport in February alone! Hartford’s at 23″.

Everything’s topsy turvy this season. The polar vortex event. Heavy snow this week in Northern Japan. Historic floods on the Thames and along the coast in Britain.

I look back and wonder how I operated in that? After all, before Connecticut I lived in Buffalo!

But you do.

You play the hand you’re dealt. Is there really a choice?

I Feel Your Pain — Still

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“I love the four seasons,” said no one in the Northeast today. The weather sucks!

There’s already six inches to a foot on-the-ground in Connecticut.

With rain/sleet/freezing rain and then a turn back to snow, the pack will be wet, heavy and tough to clear.

I just traded texts with my niece Melissa in Milwaukee. She and husband Mark are supposed to fly Southwest to New York City tomorrow. Good luck.

New York City’s new mayor is in snow denial mode. Another attempt to blame the weatherman. It’s bipartisan. Everybody does it!

The mayor and Al Roker battled it out on Twitter this morning. Winter will do that to you. Everyone gets testy.

Southwest hasn’t cancelled flights for tomorrow yet. They will!

Will Melissa’s plane even make it to Milwaukee tonight so it’s available for a 6:05 AM departure? Will the crew have enough rest hours? How crazy will our nation’s air traffic system be?

I’m not sure what to do on a day like today? It’s 75&#176 and partly cloudy at John Wayne Airport. Out my window, totally blue skies. Should I just keep my mouth shut and hide?

I totally understand what folks in the Northeast are going through. It might seem like I’m rubbing it in. I’m not. My dues are paid-in-full.

Usually by mid-February, winter had gotten the best of me. And yet I knew there was more snow to come. There was nothing to do but grin and bear it and plan my escape.

More snow Saturday. Post photos. That’s as close as I’m getting.

If I Complained About Our Weather Would You Listen?

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california-drought-mapFrom a human being day-to-day standpoint, it would seem we moved to an idyllic meteorological utopia. The sun shines nearly every day. It’s hardly ever humid, nor hot, nor cold. Since we arrived in late June it’s been totally dry every day but six!

We really need rain. More importantly, the Sierras need snow! We’re already in a drought with no sign it’s abating.

Most of Southern California uses water from the Sierra Mountains. How it gets here is an engineering marvel just over 100 years old. The water takes a 230 mile gravity powered trip to the LA area.

First_Los_Angeles_Aqueduct_Cascades,_SylmarRight now the Northern Sierras have 7% of their expected snowpack. The rest of the mountains range from 15 to 25% of normal. That’s exceptionally dry.

Snowpack is a great water source. It’s released slowly as temperatures rise. Less wasted runoff. It is mainly dependable, but as this year shows, not totally.

Not only does LA and much of SoCal depend on this distant source¹, so does California’s Central Valley. That affects us all, even outside the West.

Virtually all non-tropical crops are grown in the Central Valley, which is the primary source for a number of food products throughout the United States, including tomatoes, almonds, grapes, cotton, apricots, and asparagus. – Wikipedia

There’s also the enhanced fire danger when it’s this dry. Fire season should be over in January, but Red Flag Warnings will likely go up late this weekend as the wind blows from the east–Santa Ana winds.

I relish these beautifully salubrious winter days, but I hope we get some rain soon and the Sierras get blanketed in snow. It’s really needed.

There will be little sympathy from those reading this while shivering.

¹ – We use mountain water too, but Irvine has local sources for the vast majority of our needs. Shhh. Don’t tell.

The Photos I Showed On TV

Yesterday when our FoxCT anchor Alison Morris suggested I show some vacation photos during my science segment I was uneasy. Too easy! Self serving! Gratuitous!

Maybe I was wrong? Our 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM producers thought it was a good idea and the pics would run on their shows.

Yesterday when our FoxCT anchor Alison Morris suggested I show some vacation photos during my science segment I was uneasy. Too easy! Self serving! Gratuitous!

Maybe I was wrong? Our 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM producers thought it was a good idea and the pics would run on their shows. I decided to do it.

The science tie-in is the Alaska Panhandle’s relationship with water. It has shaped and controls nearly every piece of nature. The land has been scoured and shaped by water.

Here’s how I explained it today at 4:00 PM

More Water Pressure Means More Happiness

I got into the shower this morning and was blown away–literally and figuratively!

Note to the person who will some day buy our house–When stuff breaks we fix it and fix it correctly. That’s what was going on this week when we had some additional filtering put on our water system. The Foxes have the “Holy Trinity” of Connecticut country living:

  1. oil heat
  2. septic system
  3. well water!

With additional filtering our water pressure had gone down. Helaine asked the technician if it was possible for us to get a little more? No problem!

I got into the shower this morning and was blown away–literally and figuratively! A small adjustment to our compressor means more water through the shower head and all the faucets. I am a happy man.

It’s the little things, right?

The Winter Storm Thing… Again

That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run!

KBDL precip from coolwx.pngOne of the weaknesses of making long range forecasts is you get to anguish over storms for a l-o-n-g time. Take tonight’s little doozie. This system has been well modeled by the computers for more than a week–since it was well out in the Pacific.

With each succeeding run it seemed more likely Connecticut would have some impact. The question was how much impact and from what? Would it be snowy or just rainy and raw? This part of the equation seemed beyond the computer’s expertise.

That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run! Though some of the prior results are seeded into the next run’s initialization, there’s little memory these machines maintain from forecast-to-forecast.

Now it looks like the rain/snow line was so hard to get at because it will be moving over us. The storm will be snow then rain. But when the turnover?

There will be plenty of quality number time today. My love of math will be tested with charts and graphs and maps. It’s a geek’s paradise.

I’ve got a horse in the race this time. Helaine’s due back in Connecticut late tomorrow night. I am in charge of transport.
Predicting the weather’s impact on airlines is rough. Most likely she will make it to Connecticut without problem, but face some snowy roads on our way home.

Spring is almost here and I can’t wait. I really can’t!