I Sure Talk About The Weather A Lot

I talk about the weather so much because of how shockingly different it is. It’s much better than I hoped for–and I knew the numbers. Granted, this was an exceptional winter.

Most easterners think of a warm climate and think Florida. It has a humidity based economy! The Los Angeles/OC/San Diego corridor is dry. Our dew point hits 60 a few times a year and then briefly.

I posted this on Facebook Thursday afternoon:

On the patio. We went to 101 today, but with 4% humidity. Down to 81, but very comfy w/little breeze and low humidity. A/C now off.

The comments started flooding back. There’d be more, but some people are bothered by all the notifications you get when you comment on my wall. I hate that too&#185.

One Facebook friend said:

Something fun and funny about your casual weather posts.

I talk about the weather so much because of how shockingly different it is. It’s much better than I hoped for–and I knew the numbers. Granted, this was an exceptional winter.

Most easterners think of a warm climate and think Florida. It has a humidity based economy! The Los Angeles/OC/San Diego corridor is dry. Our dew point hits 60 a few times a year and then briefly.

A typical winter has no cold, no snow and little gloom. Nearly all our rain falls in winter. Rainy days in SoCal cause the same tumult as Connecticut snow days.

Low humidity and relentless sunshine are our two most obvious pluses. Top-10 Chamber of Commerce days back in New England are every days here! Sky blue. Birds chirping.

My concept of temperature has to be re-calibrated. 100&#176 feels more like 85&#176.

We moved for the weather (and there’s that little thing of proximity to the child). We got what we wanted and then some.

&#185 – If you comment on my blog you won’t get notifications unless you ask for them.

I Agree. The Weather Is Nuts

wtnh pkng lot snow

Bill Koczocik posted the photo above to Facebook. He didn’t say where, but I recognize the Channel 8 parking lot. Not much in that scene has changed over the last thirty years. Well, except that damn snow.

For those counting at home, Connecticut DOT’s plows have been on the road 19 separate times this season!

Over 29″ of snow at Bridgeport in February alone! Hartford’s at 23″.

Everything’s topsy turvy this season. The polar vortex event. Heavy snow this week in Northern Japan. Historic floods on the Thames and along the coast in Britain.

I look back and wonder how I operated in that? After all, before Connecticut I lived in Buffalo!

But you do.

You play the hand you’re dealt. Is there really a choice?

I Feel Your Pain — Still

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“I love the four seasons,” said no one in the Northeast today. The weather sucks!

There’s already six inches to a foot on-the-ground in Connecticut.

With rain/sleet/freezing rain and then a turn back to snow, the pack will be wet, heavy and tough to clear.

I just traded texts with my niece Melissa in Milwaukee. She and husband Mark are supposed to fly Southwest to New York City tomorrow. Good luck.

New York City’s new mayor is in snow denial mode. Another attempt to blame the weatherman. It’s bipartisan. Everybody does it!

The mayor and Al Roker battled it out on Twitter this morning. Winter will do that to you. Everyone gets testy.

Southwest hasn’t cancelled flights for tomorrow yet. They will!

Will Melissa’s plane even make it to Milwaukee tonight so it’s available for a 6:05 AM departure? Will the crew have enough rest hours? How crazy will our nation’s air traffic system be?

I’m not sure what to do on a day like today? It’s 75&#176 and partly cloudy at John Wayne Airport. Out my window, totally blue skies. Should I just keep my mouth shut and hide?

I totally understand what folks in the Northeast are going through. It might seem like I’m rubbing it in. I’m not. My dues are paid-in-full.

Usually by mid-February, winter had gotten the best of me. And yet I knew there was more snow to come. There was nothing to do but grin and bear it and plan my escape.

More snow Saturday. Post photos. That’s as close as I’m getting.

Winter Is Not Misseed

I’m looking at the 00Z GFS numbers for Connecticut. I remember this!

It was around this point every year that winter began to win our yearly battle. Not only is forecasting winter weather fraught with peril, I had to drive in that stuff–every storm!

The GFS says a little shy of a foot at New Haven. At Bradley, over six inches. These numbers are never exactly right. Bane of my existence.

People overvalue the accumulation forecast. It’s either under two inches, under six inches, or more. The impact of six inches or a foot are virtually the same.

The more important value is timing. That forecast has improved over time.

Snow by afternoon through early Wednesday. The snow will be accompanied by strong gusty winds which will create drifting. This should be powdery snow.

If you’re working Tuesday, consider coming home early.

I am typing this wearing shorts and a t-shirt.

Bitterly Cold–A Matter Of Perspective

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Winter doesn’t officially begin for another few weeks. However, to meteorologists, winter has arrived!

So far SoCal has escaped. That’s about to change.

The map (above – courtesy HamWeather.com) compares Wednesday’s highs to the average for December 4. Cold air has dropped down from Canada. Instead of turning east, it’s mainly slithered south.

cali-freezeAlready NWS has issued Hard Freeze Warnings for the agriculturally important San Joaquin Valley. The Los Angeles office anticipates some frost or freeze as close as the San Fernando Valley (aka “The Valley”)

The official forecast has Los Angeles seeing upper 30&#176s and lower 40&#176s overnight all the way to the weekend.

A tease on Channel 7 warned of the “Bitterly cold weather” on the way.”

Bitterly cold? I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

So far this winter we’ve had the heat on around 25 minutes. I expect we’ll be multiplying that this week.

Last week I saw Grace, one of our neighbors, walking her dog Bailey. Grace was wearing a thermal jacket and scarf. It was in the sixties. I can’t imagine how she’ll dress for this.

Addendum:

Right after I posted this entry Ryan Maue put the map (below – click to enlarge) from the 00z European model on Twitter. It’s calling for a freeze all the way to the LA County coast by Monday! For SoCal that is serious weather.

lows Monday morning

Mention Snow, People Go Nuts!

Doppler Versus SnowA few folks wrote to me because one of yesterday’s runs of the GFS computer model predicted snow over Connecticut for midweek next week. Mention snow and people go nuts!

Get a grip. Forecast models project that far out because they can, not because they’re good at it!

As it turns out, this morning’s GFS says, “Snow? What snow?.”

When I look at the models, especially when I see something unusual, I try and remember there’s a reason some events seldom happen–like Connecticut snow before Halloween. Climatology enters into the mix.

Of course unusual things (Halloween snow, Hurricane Sandy) do happen. Unfortunately the computer guidance promises a lot more often than it delivers.

There’s a joke among meteorologists about one overpredicting weather company that’s forecast a hundred of the last ten inches of snow!

Even here in SoCal I’ve got to be careful about the unusual happening. There was a story in this morning’s Irvine World News about the two inches of snow that fell here in 1949! It was also noted in an earlier Coast Magazine article.

Operations at Marine Air Station El Toro&#185 stopped. No equipment to deal with winter!

There probably won’t be snow in Connecticut next week, nor snow here in Irvine this winter. Probably, not definitely.

&#185 – El Toro was closed in 1999. It’s now the Orange County Great Park, under a mile from my house.

The Correct Way To Be Excited About Snow SoCal Style

The weather forecasting computer models move a low pressure system south from Nevada, tapping into some offshore moisture and bringing SoCal a decent chance of precipitation late tonight and Wednesday.

No big deal. Albert Hammond lied. It does rain in Southern California… just not often.

Here’s the exciting part. The atmosphere will be cold enough to see snowfall on some mountains higher than 5,600 feet Wednesday evening! We’ve got one of those visible from my bedroom window, Santiago Peak at 5,689 ft. It’s 12.5 miles away.

It’s possible the snow will be mixed with rain up there, or the rain/snow line might drift higher for this storm. You know how elusive good snow predictions are. Beyond that, the ground is still very warm. Snow sticking on Santiago is no certainty.

However, this was a pre-California fantasy for Helaine and me–snow visible from the house while we walk around in shirtsleeves. We are hopeful.

Bring it!

Seriously, How Can This Not Be Winter?

I’m a meteorologist. I know winter is over… officially. Unofficially, enough already! This is getting crazy. We didn’t break 45&#176 at my house. Where is the warmth we crave?

For the doubters, a few photos to make my point.

We begin with the parking lot at the Hamden Plaza Shopping Center. Not only is this pile of snow ten feet tall, it’s filthy! It will see April!

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The sunset was lovely, but look at the trees. Not a leaf. Not a bud. No color anywhere. Where are the forsythia when you need them?

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So Much I Can Taste It

jepps-brook-after-snowmelt

Doppler and I were out a little while ago. We have a late night routine.

It’s a shame she doesn’t look up. It is a beautiful night. No Moon. Dark. Clear. Brilliant stars.

I can’t imagine anyone with a telescope not observing tonight.

Chilly too. The ground around my house is still snow covered.

This neighborhood is home to dozens of little streams and brooks. They’re running strong and high right now. I can hear Jepps Brook a few hundred yards away. That’s not the norm.

I crave spring so much I can taste it.

Official Connecticut Snow Totals March 6-8, 2013

I post these with a bit of trepidation. Every time I do someone (usually many someones) writes to say it’s wrong for their town.

Probably.

Snow measurements are never exact (and I always wonder about totals to the 1/10th inch), but this is the best we’ve got. These numbers are from the National Weather Service, plus their network of volunteer spotters. These are the numbers considered ‘official’.

23″ in Staffordville takes the prize for most snow in Connecticut today. Mazel tov.

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 12.8 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
DANBURY 11.2 1000 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GREENWICH 10.0 900 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
REDDING 10.0 900 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
NORWALK 9.5 1045 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
NEWTOWN 9.4 600 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
STAMFORD 8.3 930 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT 8.0 1030 AM 3/08 CO-OP OBSERVER
WESTON 7.0 900 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OLD GREENWICH 6.0 1155 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 2.8 400 AM 3/08 CT DOT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
MANCHESTER 18.5 230 PM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
MARLBOROUGH 15.5 156 PM 3/08 HAM RADIO
ROCKY HILL 14.0 158 PM 3/08 HAM RADIO
WETHERSFIELD 12.5 157 PM 3/08 HAM RADIO
SOUTH WINDSOR 12.0 1108 AM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
BURLINGTON 11.3 1029 AM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 8.5 1106 AM 3/08 NONE
BRISTOL 8.3 840 AM 3/08 SPOTTER
WEST HARTFORD 6.6 1026 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
ENFIELD 6.5 936 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
NORTH GRANBY 5.0 739 AM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
GRANBY 5.0 1005 AM 3/08 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 WNW WINDSOR LOCKS 4.5 100 PM 3/08 BDL AIRPORT
AVON 4.2 1247 PM 3/08 NONE
EAST HARTFORD 4.0 938 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO

...LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
BAKERSVILLE 8.3 830 AM 3/08 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORFOLK 8.2 800 AM 3/08 CO-OP OBSERVER
WINSTED 8.0 940 AM 3/08 SPOTTER
THOMASTON 8.0 1200 PM 3/08 CT DOT
LITCHFIELD 7.5 1200 PM 3/08 CT DOT
NORTH CANAAN 7.5 1200 PM 3/08 CT DOT
NEW HARTFORD 7.0 405 AM 3/08 SPOTTER
THOMASTON DAM 7.0 700 AM 3/08 CO-OP OBSERVER
WINCHESTER CENTER 6.5 1200 PM 3/08 CT DOT
TORRINGTON 6.5 927 AM 3/08 SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
OLD SAYBROOK 7.0 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
HADDAM 6.8 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
CLINTON 6.0 600 AM 3/08 PUBLIC

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
WOLCOTT 12.5 900 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SEYMOUR 12.0 1000 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
WOODBRIDGE 10.0 930 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
NORTH BRANFORD 10.0 1158 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
MERIDEN 9.0 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 8.3 1100 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MADISON 7.0 1045 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
OXFORD 7.0 641 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW HAVEN 6.5 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
WATERBURY 6.5 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 6.3 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
GUILFORD 6.1 800 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 3.5 800 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
COLCHESTER 13.5 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
GILMAN 10.3 1055 AM 3/08 PUBLIC
NORWICH 6.5 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
GROTON 3.5 1000 AM 3/08 CT DOT
LEDYARD CENTER 3.0 641 AM 3/08 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
STAFFORDVILLE 23.0 159 PM 3/08 COOP OBSERVER
COVENTRY 20.5 117 PM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
STAFFORD SPRINGS 20.5 137 PM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
TOLLAND 18.5 1118 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
STORRS 17.0 1117 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
ROCKVILLE 16.0 1123 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
SOMERS 16.0 127 PM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLUMBIA 6.5 719 AM 3/08 PUBLIC

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
ASHFORD 16.0 103 PM 3/08 HAM RADIO
BROOKLYN 14.0 1049 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
SOUTH WINDAHM 13.0 1202 PM 3/08 NONE
THOMPSON 12.0 214 PM 3/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODSTOCK 12.0 905 AM 3/08 SPOTTER
HAMPTON 11.0 114 PM 3/08 COOP OBSERVER
POMFRET CENTER 8.0 708 AM 3/08 GENERAL PUBLIC
DANIELSON 5.5 803 AM 3/08 HAM RADIO
EAST KILLINGLY 5.3 607 AM 3/08 NONE

The Beautiful Pain In The Ass

Every snowstorm is different. Each has its own special features, based on temperature, wind and the like. Today’s is really unusual.

Though the wind whipped as recently as Thursday midday, the last 18 hours has seen a move to nearly calm. The snow has fallen and stayed put, even in the tiniest and most precarious of spots.

This is the kind of accumulation that can bring down trees and power lines. After the past few years is there any dead wood left to thin?

How can something so beautiful be so difficult to deal with?

Click any photo for a larger, more detailed version.

But The Last Snow’s Still Here!

Jepps Brook looking west

It’s been three weeks since the last significant snow. It’s unusual for the ground to stay white this long in this section of Connecticut. There’s more coming starting Wednesday morning. Ugh! Brooks, rivers and streams will run high this spring. They’re running high already.

My Last Winter Weather Kvetch (Hopefully)

Helaine asked if I’d go on a FroYo run for dessert tonight. Who exactly answers no to that question?

I hopped into my little car and headed out.

There’s a reason my 1999 convertible has barely broken 100,000 miles. There are months at a time when even its German heritage can’t overcome Connecticut.

It hates snow. It once spun out doing 10 mph in flurries! Really.

I know. I’ve been kvetching about winter a lot this year. This is the time of year weather kvetching becomes as common as potholes!

It’s been two weeks since our last big snow. It’s still here. It’s not like an unwelcome house guest. It is an unwelcome house guest!

I pulled to the side of the road on my way home to take this shot of an unnamed brook which runs near my house. It is surrounded by snow as if the storm was yesterday!

This is very depressing. Winter just seems endless this year.

Luckily, frozen yogurt cures most ills.

Is there anyone who lusts after spring more than I do?

It’s Winter In Connecticut

Helaine walks Doppler in light snow

I took out “Clicky” late this afternoon as Helaine was walking Doppler. Light snow was falling.

Is there any redeeming quality to a day like this? Not enough snow to be beneficial. Only enough for discomfort!

The good news is pitchers and catchers report next week!

Wednesday’s Storm Shifts

Do forecasts change? Yes. Absolutely.

There’s still a Nor’easter coming Wednesday, but every part of it has changed just a little since I last wrote about it.

It’s after 1:30 AM. Thanks to the switch back to Eastern Standard Time the computer models come in an hour earlier. The GFS, NAM and ECMWF are all present and accounted for.

This storm is projected farther east in its track than it was 24 hours ago. A position farther east is like turning the thermostat down. It’s colder here.

It looks like the precipitation starts Wednesday evening. The shoreline might see a little as early as 5:00 PM, but more likely later.

We’re right on the line. Some indicators are on the snow side. A few are working against.

Whatever we get will be wet and mushy. The warm ground is the wild card for accumulation. Maybe a few inches through much of the state. Probably less.

There will be some snow on the shoreline, but it’s going to be really tough for it to accumulate there unless it starts with a snow burst. Probably not.

The wind will howl! It won’t be as bad as Sandy.

The breeze picks up Wednesday evening. North or northeast winds will clock 15-35 mph inland and 20-40 mph on the coast. Gusts will be higher.

Also not as bad as Sandy will be the chance for coastal flooding. Tide levels will be at least two or three feet lower than Sandy.

It’s possible this forecast will change again. It’s the best I’ve got right now.