Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record

I got a call from a friend yesterday. She and her husband were driving through the Berkshires. College shopping. She told me it was nice to see the leaves beginning to turn.

Fall foliage always held a mixed message for me. On the one hand, it was beautiful. There’s no denying, New England in the fall is gorgeous.

On the other hand, fall foliage was the first sign winter was nearby. If you know me, you know I hate winter!

Fall in SoCal is much less pronounced. The plants which flank my patio are all green. I even have some bushes flowering.

The leaves on the trees outside the house are also green.

This morning on the news the meteorologist talked about fall-like weather.  I suppose. It’s just a different fall. Here, seasonal change is more nuanced.

I miss the colors of New England, but I think I like this fall better. 

I’m out on the patio writing this on my tablet while having a cup of coffee.  Fall was never conducive to that in Connecticut.

It doesn’t take long to love California weather.

Helaine and I were thrilled to be in Las Vegas last weekend for Rachel and Aram’s wedding. It was held in Hyde, the nightclub at Bellagio.

In its non-club configuration, Hyde resembles the kind of entertainment space you might see in a spectacular home in Architectural Digest. And, of course, its windows provide an unobstructed view of the famous Bellagio fountains.

Handsome groom. Beautiful bride. You missed a helluva party!

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I’ve been away all day and just got a chance to look at the 12Z ECMWF, the European model. The storm for early next week is now forecast even farther east.

Fish storm!

This highlights a forecaster’s quandary. We know predictions for weather nearly a week out are often inaccurate. That seems to be the case here.

Do I sit on my hands or present what I know with enough provisos that readers understand it’s still carved in chocolate pudding? In other words, is a heads up OK?

Twenty years ago the answer was absolutely, positively say nothing! Post Sandy, in this era of more insightful computer models, it’s not so easy.

Understanding how and when to present potentially scary info is still a work in progress. I’m not sure there’ll ever be a firm answer. You go with your gut.

A problem with computer modeling is even small errors get multiplied over time. A slight shift from run-to-run becomes much larger when you’re looking out five or six days. That seems the case with the latest run of the European model and its positioning of a potential Northeast storm for early next week.

The storm track is now farther east. That’s good for most of the heavy population along the East Coast–not all. Under this newer scenario the Cape is very much under-the-gun.

The American GFS model is even farther east than the Euro. Its solution would make this a ‘fish storm.’ That is a very typical scenario for this type of system.

Of course, after last year’s run-in with Sandy we’re all sensitized to tracks that aren’t typical!

It’s only Wednesday. This storm’s potential impact comes early Monday. The models will shift again. They always do.

It’s a good time to remain cautious and do little more.

Gate C19, McCarran International, Las Vegas.  There is no other airport like this one.  It’s busy round-the-clock, just like the rest of the city.

It is an eclectic crowd, to say the least.  Judging by facial expression I’m not flying home with any jackpot winners.

My flight is delayed.  7:30 has become 8:10.  The plane is in the air on its way from Reno.

I passed through security and immediately came upon another flight going to SNA (John Wayne Airport).

“Are you going to OC,” I asked the gate agent?

“Sorta,” he replied.

“I have no checked bags, so if there’s room can I go?”

“I said sorta because it’s going to Sacramento first!”  He smiled.

Like I said, my flight’s delayed.  I’m at Gate C19  with my fellow travelers.

A disembodied voice is telling passengers on another flight the previously announced delay has disappeared.  This won’t end well   How many folks will be at the bar when the plane leaves the gate?

It was a good trip.  Helaine and I had fun at the wedding.  I have photos.  They’ll probably get posted tomorrow.

Taking the tablet (Asus Google Nexus 7) was a huge success.  It’s much more portable than even a laptop and, except for handling my photos, was equal to the task.  Even my cheapo no-name Bluetooth keyboard has worked well.  No complaints.

I’m hoping to be home by 9:30.

I’m in bed watching Nature on PBS. It’s a show about migrating birds in Europe. The photography is amazing with many fly along shots.

EARTHFLIGHT invites us to see the world from a bird’s perspective with state-of-the-art technology and sophisticated camera techniques that take viewers on a breathtaking aerial adventure over six continents. It took series producer John Downer and his team four years to film more than 100 bird species in 40 different countries, capturing amazing viewpoints that have never been seen before.

If I would have watched the show on mute I would have enjoyed it more!  Much of the copy was written with anthropomorphic references.  Bird behavior was described as if the birds were human. They are not.

Birds do not experience human emotion. They don’t.

I know it’s cute to hear about birds practicing their dancing or fixing a nest to impress a late arriving spouse, but that’s just wrong. It takes what should be an educational experience unavailable until now and cheapens it.

We’re back in Vegas. There’s a wedding to attend. Rachel Frank from FoxCT is getting married tonight.

Stef came down from Hollywood to babysit Doppler (and Roxie). This morning she drove us to John Wayne Airport, twenty minutes from home.  It’s under an hour in the air across the desert.

There’s a big difference in Vegas from Irvine and Vegas from Connecticut! The trip was under four hours door-to-door.

I’m playing a little poker now. The wedding’s at five.  A full report later.

I’ve seen this weather before. Just not since moving to California. It’s cloudy. It’s gloomy. It’s chilly. California, this is so not like you.

Here’s the awful part. I feel cheated, as if I’m entitled to eternal sunshine. I’m sure in SoCal I’m not alone.

If the weather models are to be believed, it’s the marine layer. That’s a shallow slice of ocean influence which brings clouds. Once you move to the other side of the Santa Ana Mountains, tall enough to act as a block, skies clear.

When the marine layer is present it’s usually burned off by late morning. That will happen tomorrow and Sunday. Then the marine layer retreats for a few days.

I really do feel cheated. How sad. That didn’t take long.

New city. New doctor. New year. It’s time for my physical.

This always seems like asking for trouble. I’m feeling decent. Why turn over rocks looking for stuff?

First step, the weigh in. I unloaded my pockets as if the weight of my keys, cellphone and wallet would make a difference. The scale read at least ten pounds less than I actually weigh. They do that to cut down on complaints, right?

I had a long session with the doctor. I like him a lot. Obviously intelligent. Seemingly competent.

I take Vitamin C and a multivitamin. “Why,” he asked?

As of tonight, no more.

He did a physical exam. No problems there.

He adjusted one medication, looking for the sweet spot, then renewed prescriptions for some others.

A nurse came in to administer a few injections and draw blood. She was nice. It didn’t hurt. I was still scared s**tless of the procedure.

Why, as a grown man who’s had dozens of shots in my lifetime, am I still panicky at the thought of a needle? Why is that fear so strong it trumps reality?

The average life expectancy in the United States is 78. I’m trying to be above average.