No sooner did Hurricane Frances start fading that there’s another threat to look at, Ivan. Actually Hurricane Ivan has been a topic of interest since late last week, but because it was so far from land and Frances was such a problem, we let it build in relative anonymity.
Now it can get more attention. Here’s a snippet from the Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM EDT Technical Discussion:
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT IN 12 HOURS.
Give up? As always, the technical discussion is written… well, it’s written technically.
Bottom line is, all the tools that hurricane forecasters use say this storm is a slam dunk to intensify… and it’s already Category 4. 130 kt translates to about 150 mph. Wow!
The Hurricane Center wins no prizes for Frances’ forecast. I wonder how they’ll do with this one?
It is coming from an extreme southern latitude. It was the strongest Atlantic system ever recorded that close to the Equator. Will the computer models be able to understand the dynamics of the storm when it doesn’t fit the mold? Will the Hurricane Center staff feel ‘snake bit’ as they decide what words to use and numbers to post?
Stay tuned.
Blogger’s note: My daughter tells me, whenever she sees boxed text (as we have above) it serves as a red flag signifying whatever follows will be extremely boring. Hey – I’m thrilled she reads it at all!
Dear Geoff,
I currently live in Orlando, Florida, but grew up in Southeastern Connecticut. I’m sure I don’t have to tell you what it’s been like this past month down here, you probably have a pretty good idea. I wanted to thank you for your report on Ivan. Down here, all we get is gloom, doom and 3846376733 different answers to the same question. I’m sick of all the “if”s, “maybe”s and “we’re all gonna be blown away”s. Thank you for being honest, and letting me think that maybe, just maybe, we have a chance of being missed. I have to say, Ivan is making me very nervous since I will be home in Connecticut over the weekend (I hope…maybe? I think we have an airport…)However, I’m worried for my friends, roommate and cat living in my adopted home.
No one else seems to want to let us rest from the stress we’ve all been experiencing and I don’t want to spend the precious little time I’ll have with my family constantly worrying that Orlando won’t be here if and when I get back. Again, thanks. I grew up watching you. When I got sick of hearing the local news, I’d call my mom to get your forecast.
You were actually closer to the truth than our weathermen were here.
yours,
April
I was wondering if you knew of a place where one could find a continous radar loop of the western atlantic for the whole season. I think it would be interesting to see all of the storms soming off of africa and developing and so on. Thanks for your help.
Jeremy White from Tampa