Hurricane Season Bust

Back in March, AccuWeather loudly proclaimed their predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. I was not amused and said so here. My worry was, if they were right they’d scream it from the rooftops. If they were wrong no one would remember.

Being held responsible for your predictions is a good thing and encourages you to be very careful in what you predict.

Today in the Drudgereport, Matt Drudge remembered. Must be a slow news day. I’m not complaining.

Drudge’s headline is actually a link to a story at TBO in Tampa. These are the people in the crowded theater who heard someone yell “Fire!”

This is not to say AccuWeather or Dr. Gray of Colorado State (whose forecast was also way off) aren’t fine forecasters. What it does say is, forecasts need to be presented in context. Forecasters have to admit that not every forecast has the same degree of certainty.

People also have to realize, the number of storms isn’t the most important factor in hurricane destruction. Hurricane Andrew came in a very slow season. It was the “A” storm – in late August. The season begins June 1.

Bottom line: When it comes to the health and safety of people, hyperbole is a bad thing.

One thought on “Hurricane Season Bust”

  1. Geoff,

    Thanks for your comments on the inaccuracy of the forecast for the 2006 storm season. Despite the marvelous advances in technology, all forecasts are just that — educated guesses.

    Ted and Ann report the news. The stories that took place that day. Same for Noah on the sports beat. You have a different challenge, not only reporting the conditions we experienced during the day that’s winding down, but predicting what would come up for the next eight days.

    Imagine if your news anchors had to forecast what tomorrow’s news would be? How about an eight-day news projection? Or guessing the results of the next eight days’ worth of ballgames?

    Since weather is the only “forward looking” part of the newscast, more responsibility is heaped on your shoulders. What you said months ago was fair. And your review of what actually took place was candid and equally reasonable.

    Mike McCann


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