Another Reason To Hate Winter

I got this a little while ago:

Geoff,

I’ve been watching your forecasts for many years… and over these past few winter’s…. I have yet to see you give a satisfactory/accurate forecast! As of tonight. you just said snow is going to change to rain on the coastline.. More specifically: Stratford, CT….. What I do not understand… is CH 3 (WFSB) CH 6 (NBC) Ch 7 (WABC-7 NY) didn’t mention anything about changing to ALL rain… they mentioned a mix… also.. I’ve been monitoring the forecast(s) from noaa.gov/nyc… and they also do not mention rain… I think too much “faith” is put into your “Skymax” computer models.. rather than actual facts… correct me if I’m right/wrong.. but I do not understand the conflicting forecasts. Please explain?!

When he says I haven’t given an accurate forecast in years, I suppose that reveals his mindset.

Of course he could be right. I’m hoping he’s not. It’s so complex. Surely there are things I’ve missed or underplayed. Hopefully, I’ve seen the whole picture.

The funniest part is, I didn’t know the details of the other forecasts until I read this (I had some idea of NWS because I read their forecast discussions – not their finished forecasts).

So, now I sit and wait… and watch… and wait some more. The is what Tums are for, right?

7 thoughts on “Another Reason To Hate Winter”

  1. Geoff,

    It always upsets me when people say that meteorologists are wrong “more times than not.” That’s just simply not true. Especially with YOUR forecasts. Often times, your forecasts (especially in the long range) are a little different from others. But they come around, and usually, right up at the point when the real weather begins, all forecasts are pretty similar. What people don’t realize is that computer models don’t tell meteorologists everything. They don’t tell meteorologists exactly what to put in the forecast. Predicting the weather is an art, and it’s a lot more difficult than most people realize. So Geoff, don’t mind those nasty comments and just know that what you do is appreciated.

    –James Stanton, Norwich

  2. Geoff,

    It always upsets me when people say that meteorologists are wrong “more times than not.” That’s just simply not true. Especially with YOUR forecasts. Often times, your forecasts (especially in the long range) are a little different from others. But they come around, and usually, right up at the point when the real weather begins, all forecasts are pretty similar. What people don’t realize is that computer models don’t tell meteorologists everything. They don’t tell meteorologists exactly what to put in the forecast. Predicting the weather is an art, and it’s a lot more difficult than most people realize. So Geoff, don’t mind those nasty comments and just know that what you do is appreciated.

    –James Stanton, Norwich

  3. I say “phooey” to the nay-sayers. Perhaps you should have a “Meteorologist for the Day” and let someone else try to predict when and if rain will start after a mix of snow.

    Also, who has time to watch three other stations and check out the NWS??? Pick a station and stick to it.

  4. To your credit, I appreciate your honesty when you say you don’t know exactly what a storm will do.

    Keep up the good work, and do a rain dance for the hell of it.

  5. The writer has an option as we all do. If you don’t like or trust something on the tube, change the channel or turn it off. It took him “years” to figure out he didn’t like your forecasts?

    This has got to be the guy that I get behind in Wal-Mart that will argue at the register if he thinks the price of his item is $9.95 NOT $9.99

    73’s

  6. OK – That’s it. I didn’t post this to get sympathy. I did want to show, there will always be people who don’t like you, or what you’re wearing, or anything about you. It might be rational… or not. But, it’s a fact of life and a downside to what I do for a living.

  7. Geoff has been in this business a bit longer than I have, but here’s what I do when this happens. If anyone picks a bone with me regarding my forecast ability, I’ll send them my spreadsheet of performance – otherwise known as “tracking”. Forecast highs, lows & precipitation are compared to actual occurrence. Points are deducted for degrees off target temperatures versus actual temperatures. Any departure off target earns point deduction. The same goes for precipitation, snowfall amounts, etc. It generally is proof that my team is doing a good job versus the viewer who dares to make a challenge.

    BTW, might need a backhoe rather than a shovel this weekend.

    Erin Go Bragh!

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