That was Helaine’s response to my asking if a photo truly captured the essence of today? I don’t think it does. I don’t know if I can do any better. Rain is not photogenic.
It is truly awful outside… and yet, I’m tormented by the fear it’s not as bad as I forecast.
Former Governor (and convicted felon) John Rowland once told me, after hearing my forecasts preceding Hurricane Gloria, he was surprised no houses were blowing down the street in Waterbury, his hometown.
Over the past few days it became more and more likely we were going to have heavy rain. It was a two pronged storm, with heavy elements last night, an overnight break, then more heavy rain today. Flooding was likely.
When you forecast flooding, there’s really a great deal of faith that all the elements have to fall into line – and they never do exactly. It’s a forecast based on an assumption, based on a supposition.
Is the ground as saturated as I think it is? Will the rain be as heavy? Are the historical flooding benchmarks still applicable today?
Here’s an example, from the Yantic River in Eastern Connecticut. The river is forecast to crest at 9.5 feet.
A week ago, 250 cubic feet of water passed by the gauge each second. Right now, it’s 1,770 cu/ft/sec. By the time the river crests, it will be 4,160 cu/ft/sec. Obviously, as rivers rise, they also spread out.
10.0 FLOODING ALONG OTROBANDO AVENUE AT THE FITNESS WORLD…PLEASANT STREET BRIDGE AND ALONG TOWN STREET AT THE NORWICHTOWN MALL.
9.5 FLOODING BEGINS AT SEVERAL COMMERCIAL STRUCTURES ALONG WEST TOWN STREET IN YANTIC FLATS.
9.0 FLOODING BEGINS ALONG STURTEVANT STREET.
7.5 FLOODING BEGINS IN THE MEADOW IN YANTIC FLATS.
Nearly half the state is under Flash Flood Warnings right now.
I understand the implications of all this rain. It will cost people money. It will, briefly, interrupt lives. It’s a royal pain in the ass.
How strange to want my forecast to be right, and to want my forecast to be wrong, at the same time!