I have been working on other projects, but checking the weather every once-in-a-while. It’s too late for me to change my forecast so this is more an exercise in self flagellation. There’s always something not quite as I said.
Right now the storm seems to be the right intensity and positioned as expected. There have been some flurries on the shoreline and Western Connecticut. The snow will be slower to reach the Massachusetts border than I thought.
My friend Bob at FSU sent:
the qpf forecast for SE PA —
the 12 hour forecast for GFS (00z to 12z today) verified in 4 hours
gfs is running very very dry bias where it is currently snowing
Cryptic, isn’t it!
Basically he says earlier computer runs of the GFS model have been stingy with snowfall projections. What was forecast in 12 hours came in only four!
The Internet has changed everything for me. Nearly all the tools I have at work I have at home… except I can’t wear pajamas at work! Unless you looked forward to the Math SAT (I did) this job’s probably not for you. Lots of charts and maps and endless columns of numbers.
After all these years I can see the numeric data and visualize the result.
If I had it to change I might raise my numbers near the shore and lower them to the north. Easy to say now. In practice it’s not a snap decision. There’s lots of internal give-and-take before I’ll actually make a revision.
Bottom line: It still looks like a very snowy day with a period of major accumulation late morning/early afternoon. The strong winds kick in as the snow begins to taper toward evening.
Are you listening Mother Nature?