A Last Look At The Weather Before Sleep

The Internet has changed everything for me. Nearly all the tools I have at work I have at home… except I can’t wear pajamas at work!

barba.pngI have been working on other projects, but checking the weather every once-in-a-while. It’s too late for me to change my forecast so this is more an exercise in self flagellation. There’s always something not quite as I said.

Right now the storm seems to be the right intensity and positioned as expected. There have been some flurries on the shoreline and Western Connecticut. The snow will be slower to reach the Massachusetts border than I thought.

My friend Bob at FSU sent:

the qpf forecast for SE PA —

the 12 hour forecast for GFS (00z to 12z today) verified in 4 hours

gfs is running very very dry bias where it is currently snowing

Cryptic, isn’t it!

Basically he says earlier computer runs of the GFS model have been stingy with snowfall projections. What was forecast in 12 hours came in only four!

The Internet has changed everything for me. Nearly all the tools I have at work I have at home… except I can’t wear pajamas at work! Unless you looked forward to the Math SAT (I did) this job’s probably not for you. Lots of charts and maps and endless columns of numbers.

After all these years I can see the numeric data and visualize the result.

If I had it to change I might raise my numbers near the shore and lower them to the north. Easy to say now. In practice it’s not a snap decision. There’s lots of internal give-and-take before I’ll actually make a revision.

Bottom line: It still looks like a very snowy day with a period of major accumulation late morning/early afternoon. The strong winds kick in as the snow begins to taper toward evening.

Are you listening Mother Nature?

6 thoughts on “A Last Look At The Weather Before Sleep”

  1. NWS Upton in their forecast discussion stated that the models are under-doing the rapid intensification of the low. Sounds like more snow!

  2. “…Sounds like more snow!”

    You mean, sounds like no snow! 1:35pm here in mid-CT, and a light dusting would be an accurate description (with a little wind).

    CT weather forecasters should cut out the entertainment, and ramp up the meteorology. Bringing the state to its knees with over-hyped forecasts like this is a disgrace.

  3. Here in West Hartford we got a dusting between 8:00am and 9:30am then it stopped for well over 3 hours. Started up again around 1:00 but that was an hour ago and its not sticking to the sidewalks or roads yet.

  4. Being a weather man has its perks. You can be wrong and still keep your job. Then again, when you’re wrong, you can just blame the National Weather Service since that’s where most of these clowns make the “forecast” from.

  5. Giving credit where it’s due, Geoff apologized for the forecast. Don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone step up like that and oneself accountable for missing a weather prediction. Very noble.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *