It’s likely Earl will graduate this weekend and become Hurricane Earl.
I’m not going to try and fool you. Most likely Earl is headed toward the fishes. Most Atlantic tropical systems miss land entirely! Not all of them.
There’s a huge downside to being wrong so I try and stay current with the situation.
I’ve attached the scariest computer output I could find. It’s the GFS model and that’s Earl off Cape Hatteras next Friday afternoon at 2:00 PM. It quickly gets less menacing catching a more easterly flow and turning northeastward farther into the ocean.
The projection is from a model not designed to work with tropical systems. Out 180 hours even small errors will multiply. It’s the best we’ve got.
Don’t worry. If Earl decides to become a factor in our lives I won’t hold back.