It’s twenty of two. I’m on the sofa in the family room. I have hit the refresh button a half dozen times. I am waiting for the HWRF.
The HWRFTM is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution
This is a fairly recent model. It’s made especially for hurricanes. Hurricanes need an extremely fine mesh or high resolution because so much is going on in a small space!
Most computer guidance is optimized for larger scale events like the type of fall-through-spring storms we get in Connecticut.
Forecasting has really improved in my 28 years in weather. I wish I was better at it. Mistakes are never fun.
It’s not that the forecasting isn’t good–it needs to be great. Mistakes have a huge downside. Both over and underforecasting have costly consequences.
A quick peek shows it still west of the official forecast. I lean west too.
Interesting. Bothersome. Inconveniencing. Not tragic.