For me today’s storm (the second half of a system that spanned two days with a sizable lull in the middle) was very much like a snowstorm. I came to that conclusion around 3:00 AM when I checked the radar to find the rain already a few hours west of where I said it would be. Obsessive radar gazing is a winter tic for me.
Like a winter storm a good part of the overnight was also spent rechecking computer guidance. There are more models run more often nowadays. It’s a second guesser’s paradise!
What am I supposed to do? If I find things have changed do I give everyone a call? It’s a pointless exercise I can’t shake.
When I went to sleep around 5:10 AM my driveway was still dry. My next conscious thought came a few hours later. The wind woke me! No rain was falling yet, but we were in the middle of a howling gale.
I apologize. Even though I knew it would adversely affect lots of people there was satisfaction the forecast was beginning to verify. Then came the rain–buckets of rain. A little late, but as forecast¹
As a forecaster I see weather before it happens. The actual numbers aren’t as important as being able to paint a picture from my pre-visualization. Viewers should be left with an actionable understanding.
The forecast is never 100% accurate–never. There is always some parameter (mostly small, sometimes not) that doesn’t play out.
It’s just a shame we need a state full of minor to moderate flooding with tree limbs and power lines down to make people happy with my work!
¹ – “As forecast” are the two most important words I can hear.