When Rotten Weather Makes Me Happy

It’s just a shame we need a state full of minor to moderate flooding with tree limbs and power lines down to make people happy with my work!

A few days ago one of my co-workers commented on the now fallen then expected precipitation and said, “We really need the rain.” I asked her to be careful what she wished for!

For me today’s storm (the second half of a system that spanned two days with a sizable lull in the middle) was very much like a snowstorm. I came to that conclusion around 3:00 AM when I checked the radar to find the rain already a few hours west of where I said it would be. Obsessive radar gazing is a winter tic for me.

Like a winter storm a good part of the overnight was also spent rechecking computer guidance. There are more models run more often nowadays. It’s a second guesser’s paradise!

I’m not sure why I do it. There’s little upside. Mostly it’s just a way to increase my anguish while alone of the sofa in our darkened family room.

What am I supposed to do? If I find things have changed do I give everyone a call? It’s a pointless exercise I can’t shake.

When I went to sleep around 5:10 AM my driveway was still dry. My next conscious thought came a few hours later. The wind woke me! No rain was falling yet, but we were in the middle of a howling gale.

I apologize. Even though I knew it would adversely affect lots of people there was satisfaction the forecast was beginning to verify. Then came the rain–buckets of rain. A little late, but as forecast&#185

As a forecaster I see weather before it happens. The actual numbers aren’t as important as being able to paint a picture from my pre-visualization. Viewers should be left with an actionable understanding.

The forecast is never 100% accurate–never. There is always some parameter (mostly small, sometimes not) that doesn’t play out.

It’s just a shame we need a state full of minor to moderate flooding with tree limbs and power lines down to make people happy with my work!

&#185 – “As forecast” are the two most important words I can hear.

One thought on “When Rotten Weather Makes Me Happy”

  1. As I have said before, Geoff, all you can do is make a forecast based on the data you have at hand. Systems speed up, slow down, or even stop at their will.
    You have no reason to apologize in my mind.

    Not apologizing Lou. Just a little rundown of what’s going on in my mind.- Geoff

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