The last three runs of the computer models have come into agreement. Our Sunday storm looks like it’s out-to-sea. As a winter hater I’m thrilled. As a forecaster less so.
Even though I spent most of the last week telling anyone who’d listen how untrustowrthy the snow forecast was I wanted consistency. There was none. That’s the frustrating part.
Over the past few days people have asked why we put so much trust in these computer projections? Truth is they’re more accurate than humans working alone. They also allow us to see much further into the future than ever before possible.
This past week makes that all seem academic. Frustrating. Nothing came together. Nothing worked right.
The winter has just begun. Oh boy.
It just shows why it’s called forecasting, Geoff. There’s always an element of error in it no matter how small.
I’m just glad the rug got pulled out from under this one 3 or 4 days out and not 36 hours out. 1 egg on the face as opposed to a dozen!
I, for one, am thrilled that the snow possibility is fizzling … my flight to Arizona for the holidays is scheduled to leave LGA at 4pm on Sunday!!
Geoff your forecasts are reliable and trusted and your dedication to weather and US apparent. Keep it up and keep doing just what you do. Your best.
Christopher Meyer
Don’t worry about it Geoff… I’m DEFINITELY not complaining… didn’t want it – nor do I want ANY snow!!
Song “Stand” a song about facing adversity.
Hear it @ URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3MxZcls24o
We’re not going to shoot you, even if you’re disasterously wrong. We REALLY LIKE you!
Oh yeah I forgot to add….computers we’ll shoot almost any day! To err is human, to really screw things up…..