Over on Twitter the ‘house account’ for the Meriden Record-Journal newspaper just tweeted, “Reports of snow possible towards the end of the week/weekend. Anyone sick of winter yet? #ctweather”
It didn’t take long to see a reply, “I am sick of winter and you can quote me!” That was from me.
Not even two weeks into winter officially and it’s already like being on a bad blind date looking for a strategy to bail. I need a winter wingman!
We’ve only had one real snowstorm so far, but this has been the windiest winter in a long time. December was a decidedly cold month–colder than even December should be. Now there’s the chance for snow as we head into the weekend.
Here’s one thing last winter taught me: Don’t commit too far out!
It’s OK to say what looks likely, but foolhardy to make that anything more than an advisory for planning early on. If you say something will happen with certainty you will certainly be burned! I still have scars.
120 hours out an error of a mile an hour (or less) can be the difference between heavy snow and no snow! I’m not that good. No one is.
I got a note from Dr. Mel this morning. We often chat when these larger systems approach. It’s good on both sides because speaking your mind and defending your ideas is as helpful as listening!
WE HAVE NOT ONE BUT THREE DIFFEENT CIRCULATIONS TO WATCH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK…
BUT IT IS ANYONES GUESS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON. THE KEY WILL BE THE TROUGH LINE. AS LONG AS IT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA, A CHANNEL FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND WE COULD GET BANDS OF MOD.SNOW IN THOSE SPOKES.
AS USUAL ALL THE MODELS FLIP FLOP…THE 12 Z KEEPS THING POORLY ORGANIZED, AND SHIFT THE TROUGH LINE NORTHWARD…MUCH DIFFERENT FROM OO AND 06Z RUNS.
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT WATCH…I HEAR THAT A LOT LATELY
People have accused me (and I suppose all forecasters) of hyping these storms. Why? You are just as likely to watch if we claim honest uncertainty as divine insight!
When snow approaches viewers want to know as much as we know even when we don’t know all that much!