More Winter In Your Future?

Forecasting that far out especially in the transition season is a fool’s errand.

Over the weekend a message popped up on my Facebook wall:

Big storm coming Friday. Big, big storm. Let’s see if it’s rain or snow!

I couldn’t see this Facebook friend, but it’s obvious he was salivating! Haven’t we already been through enough?

On top of that he wants to play… and this storm is demanding we play the rain/snow game. It was tough enough when I had to do it. Now I have a choice!

I answered:

Forecasting that far out especially in the transition season is a fool’s errand. There’s a chance for snow both Wednesday PM and Friday/Saturday. Beyond that, who knows?

My Facebook friend was looking for me to sign-off on his wish based prediction for snow! Wishcasting is the most dangerous thing a forecaster can do.

Some of you think that’s what TV meteorologists do. Maybe. Not me.

I went back to the computer models this afternoon. Like you I’m interested in seeing if there’s snow in the offing.

There are actually two chances. He missed the one for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday that I mentioned. We’ll be cold enough for snow, but that system now looks to be tracking south of us. Close, but no cigar.


I know. I’m supposed to be a dispassionate observer. The heck with that! I’ll be glad if it misses us as forecast. Maybe thrilled is a better word.

The later week story is much more problematic. The rain/snow line looks to cut across our state as the storm passes by through most of Friday. That sets up some very different outcomes based on location.

At this early date the Shoreline and Eastern Connecticut will see mainly rain. North and west will get mostly snow–enough to send the plows out and keep the kids home.

Here’s the operative line that bears repeating: Forecasting this early is a fool’s errand. I’ll keep my eye on it and let you know as things come into sharper focus.

It’s really too early to worry about Friday. Keep that in mind.

17 thoughts on “More Winter In Your Future?”

  1. As I know you well know from your many years of meteorology experience, there’s that transition from winter into spring of the possibility of one last chance for snow – but do you realize what Friday is? April 1st. Maybe Mother Nature is planning an April Fool’s trick?

  2. Ohhh! I miss your forecasts! How are your new ventures turning out???? How about your next webcast? I’ve missed the few you’ve done already!

  3. I always thought that meteorologists predicting the weather more than 72 hours out was “risky business”. I’m with you Geoff…it’s a “fools errand”.

  4. Im so glad you still are on top of the weather,even through you are not on TV. Justs shows how much you really care, and we all miss you so much !

  5. I sooo miss seeing you and hearing your forecast everyday:( thank you for keeping us informed…very comforting to know you are still looking out for us!! Keep up the good work my friend 🙂

  6. Geoff, so nice to get a forcast from a real weatherman again. I can’t imagine any station not wanting you doing the weather. I hope to see you on tv again real soon!

  7. Geoff, thank you for this. It’s refreshing to hear your no-nonsense style again. And remember, Friday IS April Fool’s Day after all — so let’s hope we’re the ones being fooled and there will be NO MORE of that cold, white stuff! 🙂

  8. That was me! I understand — I am just looking for some good news. We haven’t had any real snow since January, Geoff. I don’t think we’ve had nearly enough without one last hurrah!

  9. On Friday at 6:45 am (April Fool’s Day), I’m leaving on a bus trip to DC for a nice tour of the city, Cherry Blossoms and all. We will be returning on Sunday. Sure hope we have good weather driving down. Can’t get that last tour bus accident out of my mind.

  10. GREAT! I’m suppose to drive to Tioga PA on Friday morning. I do not need to drive in snow. I do not want to drive in snow. I am tired of driving in snow. I want warm sun, blue water, sandy beaches, girls in bikinis, Jones Beach sand in my sandwich..etc etc etc. Please Geoff, make it go away???!!

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