In Weather A Small Change Become A Big Change With Enough Time

Tonight the models push warm air farther north and with it the rain/snow line.

They call football a game of inches. Weather too. OK maybe not inches exactly, but small errors become big errors over time. I’ve got a pretty good example of that tonight. It’s another look at Friday, but this time from tonight’s 00Z (8:00 PM EDT) GFS.

This afternoon it looked like the rain/snow line would be draped across Connecticut. Tonight the models push warm air farther north and with it the rain/snow line.

In case you’re wondering why we use these schizophrenic models the simple answer is there’s just too much math involved for a human to do much more than guess this far out.

It isn’t a big shift. 00Z was about 75 hours from the first precipitation. The change is less than a one mile per hour departure!

This is one reason to look, be prepared, but don’t go nuts Monday for Friday. The forecast will surely change again.

I’ll keep you updated.

6 thoughts on “In Weather A Small Change Become A Big Change With Enough Time”

  1. Thanks for doing this. I have not watched a single weather forecast on any TV station since it was announced that you were leaving WTNH.. I feel like I have my weather forecasts back!!!!!!!!

    Thank you, Thank you, Thank you!!!!!

  2. I don’t know what WTNH did to their WEBsite, but their weather page stopped working almost about the same time they kicked one of the best Weathermen to the curb. (SHAME ON THEM!) So their site is USELESS to me for weather… thanks for doing this! 🙂
    BTW, I usually don’t concern myself too much with forecasts more than 48 hours out, because, well, they are always subject to change. 🙂

  3. Just out of curiosity, are the software you’re using programs you’ve purchased (over the years?), or are these either open source or web sites? IOW, are you spending your savings just to make us happy? Be still my heart!

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