They call football a game of inches. Weather too. OK maybe not inches exactly, but small errors become big errors over time. I’ve got a pretty good example of that tonight. It’s another look at Friday, but this time from tonight’s 00Z (8:00 PM EDT) GFS.
This afternoon it looked like the rain/snow line would be draped across Connecticut. Tonight the models push warm air farther north and with it the rain/snow line.
In case you’re wondering why we use these schizophrenic models the simple answer is there’s just too much math involved for a human to do much more than guess this far out.
It isn’t a big shift. 00Z was about 75 hours from the first precipitation. The change is less than a one mile per hour departure!
This is one reason to look, be prepared, but don’t go nuts Monday for Friday. The forecast will surely change again.
I’ll keep you updated.