I’m Ready To Commit

The best way to look at it is by drawing a diagonal between Union in the north and Greenwich in the southwest.

This is such a guy thing. We just don’t want to commit! Oh, what the heck. I will anyway. I think I have a reasonable handle on the storm which will be over Connecticut Thursday into Friday.

I posted a little note on Facebook and Twitter Wednesday evening.

I want to have more time to digest it and the GFS, but it seems the 00z NAM is a little warmer. The NAM had been the snowier model

The little animation at the top of this entry doesn’t show perfect alignment between the GFS and NAM, but they’re now pretty close! By allowing the low pressure center to move farther north the NAM is hinting at more rain, less snow.

This is Connecticut. We don’t get weather, we get samples! That will be true with this system. Everyone will get a little of everything, but the farther south and east you are the larger percentage of what you get will be rain.

The best way to look at it is by drawing a diagonal between Union in the north and Greenwich in the southwest. South of that line will be mostly rain. North of the line will be mostly snow.

Of course it’s not that simple!

Rain is the mortal enemy of snow! Rain on the ground will usually ‘eat’ snow as it falls. That’s why I’ve divided the map at the bottom of this entry into three parts&#185.

Hartford, Waterbury, Danbury, Colchester, Middletown and Storrs will get a few wet and slushy inches. If you only look at the snow falling by your window you’ll think there should be more on the ground! Most of that central slice of the state will see light snow, then rain, sleet or a wintry mix, then back to snow late Thursday night.

Closer to the shore there probably won’t be any accumulation at all. It’s still going to be a stinker of a day–cold and wet!

In the higher elevations of the Northwest Hills I wouldn’t be surprised to see some foot plus accumulations. Most areas will get significantly less.

It will be sloppy at wakeup Friday morning. Some areas will see delays or closings. Most places will not.

On a night like this I might have gotten as much as three minutes to deliver the weather on TV. I think you’re getting more meat here.

&#185 – It’s times like these when I miss the computers we used to display the weather on television.

Nearly all our software came from Weather Central in Madison, WI. If there’s a way to do their graphical magic from home I haven’t figured it out… and I’m pretty resourceful where this stuff is concerned.

I have a new found respect for something I often took for granted.

33 thoughts on “I’m Ready To Commit”

  1. Thanks Geoff – I still look to your forecast as the most accurate! I own a small business and tend to cancel if there’s snow – most people don’t show up anyway. But alas, I’ve switched my clients from Friday to Thursday already. I’d feel a lot better about it if we had some snow accumulation on Friday morning! I’m in Northern New Haven and it sure doesn’t sound that way from your forecast. Ah well…thanks for the update! G’nite!

  2. THANKS GEOFF… I LOVE HAVING YOUR WEATHER AT MY FINGER TIPS.I LIVE IN OXFORD AND WE ALWAYS SEEM TO GET A MIXED BAG WHEN IT COMES TO STORMS.I TRUST YOU WEATHER MORE THAN ANYONES I DO MISS YOU A WHOLE BUNCH ON AIR YOU ARE ONE FUNNY GUY ON THE AIR THERE ARE A LOT OF DEAD BEAT WEATHER MEN OUT THERE CAN’T EVEN CRACK A JOKE.BUT ANYWAY I LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR PAGE KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK,NANCY AND GOOD LUCK!

  3. Okay, Geoff, so you don’t have the pretty pictures. I still look to you for the weather though. I’m glad we have the technology to still be able to get your forecast,no matter how. Thanks for keeping us in the loop!

  4. Geoff – thanks so much! Always going above and beyond. I appreciate your forecast because you are doing it for its own sake – I know I can trust it. Thanks for being there.

  5. Thanks, Geoff! What a pleasure it is to get up in the morning and get your detailed weather report. My husband and I miss you so much as the weatherman on Channel 8. We’ve been watching other channels now. Maybe if enough people do that, they’ll get the message that they have made a terrible mistake. Anyway, have a great day, and thanks again for the weather!

    1. Jane, my family feels the same way!! Its so good to know that other people are tuning in else where. We dont know the specifics of why he left, we just know we miss him and his accurate weather, not to mention passion for the job 🙂

  6. The motocycles are still not happy, however, after seeing your call on this weather front, they are hopeful of at least getting out on somewhat cleaner roadways on Sunday. Thanks for the morning forcast Geoff…

  7. I love your last line “…something I often took for granted.” Like, having a reliable weather forecast? Thanks for keep us loyal folk in your loop. You probably don’t realize just how much we appreciate it!

  8. Thanks for the update. At least we’re not getting buried. Just ran the ole LeBaron through the car wash and I have to drive to Rhode Island late this afternoon for a weekend conference.

  9. Thanks Geoff, your forecast were always the best, more closer to what really happened than the scare tactics of other stations. Keep posting.

  10. Thanks, Geoff! I was hoping not having to rely on the other 2 channels! And the remote doesn’t even stop at Channel 8 anymore for news or weather… and love your graphics!!! Hope all is well!

  11. Geoff — Good to have good forecasting!

    For your map, you should check out Google My Maps. It will let you draw polygons right on a map, and then you can save the image out.

  12. Thanks so much Geoff! You are missed very much. I have yet to watch WTNH and will not watch it unless you are brought back. Thank you for keeping it real.

  13. Thank you. You study it and study it and tell it like it is. But, if it isn’t, you aren’t hesitant to say…weather in New England (especially Connecticut) just wait a moment and it will change!

  14. Thank you for taking the time to work up this forecast for us. By far, it is the least traumatic of all the forecasts I’ve been hearing lately. Others would have us believe were in for a real Nor’easter. So, in New Haven it will be rain. That’s tolerable and that’s why I’m not living in Litchfield County.

    Please keep doing what you’re doing. We appreciate it so much.

  15. Bill is so right: we DO so miss your voice and your corny jokes. And, no one gives as easy-to-grasp (for us laypeople) a forecast. Thank you…and we do so hope to see you somewhere that you can be appreciated very soon. : )

  16. Thanks, Geoff !!!! Been waiting all week for your “commitment” ….really appreciate your dedication to all of us !!! Moving appointments to Thurs and Sat for my clients – you’re the best !!! Would be happy to pay a monthly subscription to your service – just say the word !!! Keep us posted !!!

  17. Yours is still the forecast I trust the most. It is clear and easy to understand.

    BTW, it’s Opening Day in baseball, so hopefully the Yankees are able to get the game in.

  18. Hey Geoff,

    Ever think of developing this website and selling advertising to CT businesses or national companies? That way you can get paid for your efforts and and we still get forecasts from Connecticut’s best meteorologist? You have a good start with all the Facebook followers along with what you started out with in the beginning. Just an idea…

  19. Thank you so much – it’s such a relief to have a weather forecast we can trust. And the ‘longer format’ is great – I always want to know more of what is going on, and there is never enough time on TV. This is so much more informative. And see, committing isn’t that hard, right?

  20. Still loving my “Geoff forecast”… Thanks for explaining and not hyping! Could always count on you!! Still DO!! 😀

Leave a Reply to Chris Proulx Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *