I don’t know how other people do their jobs, but I keep track of the weather while I’m off-the-clock. The atmosphere has a rhythm. You want to stay in the rhythm. I look at maps, usually briefly, all the time.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued Moday’s national outlook. We’re squarely inside the “slight risk” area for severe storms.
Slight doesn’t sound bad, but it’s better than 50/50 if you’re in the slight risk area you will get a severe weather box later in the day! I’ve been doing this a long time. There is a rhythm.
I’m going to post SPC’s technical discussion, but feel free to skip this section. It’s full of jargon and technical terms plus nearly all the Weather Service bulletins are all caps. Sorry.
…NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND…
EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER QUEBEC/EASTERN ONTARIO TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT CAPE BY AFTERNOON…MULTIPLE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON…WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND/OR ALONG ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. SUSTAINED MULTICELLS ALONG WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED…WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
“Southeastward moving.” That’s the scare line for me. Our strongest storms move northwest to southeast. In the Plains the strongest storms head to the northeast.
SPC also says the biggest risks are strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes seem unlikely, though you can have comparable damage from microbursts.
The Rapid Refresh model which did well on timing this past Friday shows the system entering Connecticut early afternoon. It will build as it heads in our direction. The computer readout resembles a snowball which grows as it rolls downhill.
This isn’t the last time I’ll look at maps before going to work today.