There’s been a lot of chatter about Invest 97, the pre-tropical storm still pretty far out in the Atlantic. Right now the system hardly exists! In fact the map I chose to show (above) is a forecast map because you can’t find it on the latest observed analysis!
In spite of this people are petrified. This storm is certainly worth watching. It has to do with climatology.
Tropical systems more than any other I talk about are seasonally affected. Certain times of the season certain specific tropical basins are ‘open for business.’ Storms that form within those zones also have a moderately favored trajectory. It too changes with the season.
Most of the storms that form where Invest 97 is located head northward up the East Coast. Cape Hatteras is a favorite target. Of course they can also hit Florida or the Gulf or even Southern New England¹. Any threat is still at least a week away.
This is not a weather prediction. Only a fool would predict a tropical system this far out. This is just an examination of what similar storms have done in the past. It should concern a lot of people.
Click for a more detailed mathematical explanation.
¹ – Approximately 1% chance of a Southern New England hit by this storm with hurricane force winds.
Keyword is “week away.” You just made my next week very bright.
Thanks for the info Geoff…I have heard a LOT of talk about this on Facebook from my Florida friends. I guess I best at least get my bottled water supply back, (we used it) and make sure I have an extra tank for the grill (used that too). My husband thinks I am crazy…but I always feel it’s best to be prepared.
Geoff, a two part question. First, has the heat this summer translated to warmer than normal temps in the Atlantic, and second, if so, does that increase the chance of a hurricane making it’s way northward? Thanks!
Never been in a hurricane. Moved here to CT right after Bob hit. As silly (stupid?) as it sounds, I want to “experience” one. I love stormy weather.
Geoff, My sister called from Florida to tell me about this latest disturbance knowing full well that I am having a lawn party this coming Saturday. She gave me something else to worry about. Thanks for the info, Geoff!
Probs of CT trop cyclone-hurricane-major hurricane for NE based on your link went up overnight to 10-3-0. CT = 5-1-0, Maine = 12-2-0 (average makes sense).
Geoff how confident are you in the latest NHC forecast as of 2pm forecast. I live in Titusville Fl about 2 hours north from your parents directly across from the space center.
Hurricane forecasts are seldom very accurate more than a day or two out. Not theirs. Not mine.