Here’s Why I’m Worried About Irene

Obviously Florida is under-the-gun. Quite honestly so is the rest of the East Coast (and to a lesser extent the Gulf of Mexico).

A few days ago a friend wrote and asked about a Hurricane Center “invest” out in the Atlantic. It was a little early to give it more than a cursory glance. Invest 97 became Tropical Storm Irene last night.

Irene is a concern!

Not every storm is an equal threat. For a variety of reasons (mostly climatology) certain locations at certain times of the season produce storms that move toward population centers. Irene has that pedigree.

The map of hurricane models at the top of this entry show they’re in reasonably good agreement over the first few days. That agreement actually adds uncertainty because of the topography of the Dominican Republic.

The D.R. has one mountain 10,000+ feet tall! Hurricanes and mountains don’t get along!

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY…AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST…IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.

Today isn’t a beach day in the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. Squall lines are coming through and the storm is still way out to the east.

Obviously Florida is under-the-gun. So is the rest of the East Coast and to a lesser extent the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a storm I expect to write a lot about.

10 thoughts on “Here’s Why I’m Worried About Irene”

  1. We’re on the west coast in SW Florida, and began our hurricane preparation today. Not sure we’ll need it, but since this is really the start of the “active” hurricane season for us, it’s good to be prepared for Irene or whatever else may come along. Right now, I’m just enjoying the daily thunderboomer.

  2. Geoff,

    Even as I suggest this, it sounds crazy, but here goes: As the season develops, does each successive hurricane lay down some sort of marker of where conditions are favorable and where they are not, so each successive hurricane almost “learns” from earlier ones where water is warm and is not, or not so much as learns, but sort of draft-dodges where the previous storm/s didn’t get traction and tries to “find a line?” Is the storm season organic, in that it sets the stage for following storms to be more powerful, not necessarily one right after the other, but over the course of the season, is there some dynamic whereby the potential for a stronger storm exists because other less powerful storms have preceded it?

  3. My sister and her family live in the West Palm Beach area, so we always keep watch and say prayers for their safety. My nephew had moved out of a trailer a week before it was demolished, so they’ve been very lucky.

  4. Well it’s a wait and see approach for now but just in case get all your supplies ready now and not wait the last minute. It’s better to be safe then sorry. 🙂

  5. GEOFF,is this storm, even remotely related to the last weather map, you posted last week, where a hurricane-like storm was close to us?? the 35 day forecast!

  6. Well, so far Florida is looking good according to the everyone. We will not get a direct hit but I live in the Orlando area do I have to be concer with Irene?? This hurricane looks pretty big for not to be concern….we can get winds too, can someone please say anything, I hate when everybody stays quiet…I lost my house to Charlie and this hurricane was not a concern back them to Central Florida until it was too late.

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