Attached is part of one panel from the GFS computer model. The GFS is a synoptic scale model. Specifically, it’s not designed to forecast tropical system whose characteristics are somewhat different than ‘normal’ mid-latitude weather.
Unfortunately, a full week out there isn’t too much else you can call on. The GFS is one of the best in a decidedly motley crew.
This GFS panel is an OMG moment. It shows Hurricane Irene approaching Connecticut on Monday much as Hurricane Gloria did back in ’85. Earlier panels bring Irene inland for a significant distance, so hurricane strength winds would be unlikely in this scenario, but still strong winds and boatloads of rain.
It’s still too early to commit or make a firm forecast, but indicators like this one will keep me and my colleagues on our toes.