I’ve have tracked hundreds of tropical storms and hurricanes over the last three decades. They seem organic. They respond to their environment. They weaken. They strengthen. Doing one doesn’t mean they won’t do the other!
Hurricane Irene which had top winds of 100 mph now has top winds of 90 mph. It is more likely to re-intensify than continue weakening. Sorry. Don’t get your hopes up.
Though Dr. Bob Hart’s climatology based graphs now show Hurricane Irene as 7-1-0 for hitting Connecticut (percentage we’ll get a direct hit for any storm, hurricane, major hurricane) the reality of the actual forecast is higher.
I mentioned yesterday there’s a narrow route a storm must take to hit Connecticut. That still holds true. Any small error in the modeling and Irene’s impact is minor. Unfortunately, run-to-run a run-in with Connecticut has been fairly consistent.
I am more concerned than I was yesterday. Wind worries me. So does rain. The GFS model puts 10″ of rain in New Haven with lesser amounts elsewhere.
The most likely scenario is showery rain Saturday with heavier squalls, then wind, for Sunday into Monday. A direct hurricane hit is possible.
I know some of you reading this are thinking how cool it would be to experience a hurricane. Trust me, you don’t want one. The romance is quickly gone when you’re without power or phone or gas for your car or your home has been damaged.