The ECMWF weather prediction model which I wrote about a few days ago is closely guarded. Unlike our NOAA computer models here in the states the ECMWF output is sold for a high price. Only a very low-res output is available… and available later than just about everything else. That has just changed.
The smart money says the Europeans want to share their expertise in this time of great need–aka Hurricane Irene. Thanks. Gesture appreciated.
The bad news is the ECMWF paints the scariest picture yet of our run-in with Irene and makes me wonder if I was premature in my last post touting the Hurricane Center’s shift to the east. Actually here’s what the Hurricane Center now says:
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH… WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST…AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL…THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
If ECMWF is right Hurricane Irene will slide up the Jersey Shore, over Newark Airport (give-or-take), near White Plains and then north. We will get blasted. New York City will get even more. Flooding waters over Kennedy Airport or into the New York City subways are certainly possible.
It’s not the time to panic or take drastic action. It is the time to make sure you’ve got a plan and keep your wits about you.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope this storm blows quietly to sea. I just can’t rely on that being the scenario that comes true.