All week I’ve been wondering why the Hurricane Center guidance has been so far west of the computer guidance? I’ll probably never know, but as of this morning NHC has moved their forecast east. That means they’re starting to lean where I’m leaning.
Of course leaning is not the same as forecast certainty. There’s still a great deal of wiggle room. Connecticut is inside the cone of uncertainty!
Though this forecast clips Southeastern Connecticut the strongest winds will be east in Rhode Island and the Cape.
The timing hasn’t changed. We’ll have showers Saturday, then windblown squalls Sunday. Six inch plus rainfall amounts are still forecast for the weekend.
I am still worried… still apprehensive. A direct hit of some sort is still possible. It just looks a little less likely.
It is likely we’ll have trees, branches and power lines down. This is by no means a total miss.
12 thoughts on “As Irene News Goes This Is Good”
I wish it would fizzle out, have a fire dept picnic sunday and I think it might get canceled.
oh heavens! The world is coming to an end if the picnic is canceled. Oh brother. I’d be more worried about the road being flooded out under the bridge off 95 in os…….! And even more worried still about your basement being flooded.
Any chance at all of lesser amounts of rain – those of us who have had basement flooding in the past are already losing sleep.
I like the lean… I would have liked the guys to come fix the chimney which is still needing repair after last winter. Crossing my fingers…. thanks Geoff!
I too was tracking this storm more to the east. It’s funny that you wrote everything I was thinking since Monday. I am alwasy perplexed by the forecast’s by some meteorologists on TV becasue they have all the high tech equip, and I am just basing my forecast on basic model maps, wind speeds, water temps and radar. I feel that you can tell a lot about a hurricane and where it’s going by the surrounding water temps. There of course are other factors like wind shear, but normally I am very good at my forecasts and many many people come to me and ask whats goinf on with the weather. I am the office weather guru. Anyways, I just wanted to say good job on this article. I am happy someone shared the same opinion as me when it came to Irene. Lets hope it misses us. Though I doubt it this time.
Weather channel just said that some of the computer models are tracking it a bit more west. I still think that even if it were to hit farther east, we will still have quite a bit destruction. CT just isnt made for hurricanes!!
Geoff, can you please tell us which of all those models on the Weather Underground site represents the NHC model you mention? I see all the 4 and 5 letter abbreviations (BAMM, LBAR, BAMD, BAMS, etc) but I cant figure which one is the NHC’s. And if you have any commentary on which of those models you think are most useful, that would be interesting to know.
Husband, son and myself headed to Cape Cod on Sunday morning early if this forecast holds! WOOHOO… can’t wait!
Not going with the Euro Geoff?
I think the big question as to farther east or not is depending on how much the high centered in the west pushes out or how much Irene as it strengthens and moves up the coast withstands that push.
So why is the weather channel so concerned:
In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: “We are very concerned with what’s going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there.”
Geoff, the current track looks just like Hurricane Bob in 1991. If that stayed the case, I recall that was a pretty bad storm for CT, not nearly as bad as Gloria, I think it was lots of rain, lots of power out for a few days, but much less tree damage. Can you remind us what CT experienced then – how high were the winds, how much rain? Can you explain re your earlier comment why winds are worse on the eastern side of the hurricane than the west?
I live in Stratford and remember having some rain and wind with Bob, but it was nothing like Gloria. I lived in Milford where the eye of Gloria crossed over. Not a lot of rain but that wind was howling. trees down and no power for 5 days.
@Michael,the winds of a hurricane in the northern hemisphere circulate in a counter clockwise fashion. that’s why the east side is stronger- and coupled with a substantial forward movement, which will add to the wind speed on that side.