More Cred For Irene’s Possible Western Path

A friend has taken to calling this path the “$100 Billion Storm!”

The 18Z GFDL and HWRF models are both pointing to a more westerly forecast solution like the earlier ECMWF. This is bad for Connecticut and adjacent areas of New York including New York City. A friend has taken to calling this path the “$100 Billion Storm!”

More updates later. Not happy.

19 thoughts on “More Cred For Irene’s Possible Western Path”

  1. Model watching is so hypnotic as you watch them trend more west now. I and the people on the forum I go on are all waiting for Recon flights, and the Euro 00z and the Gfs 00z. I know you don’t have that luxury before 11pm. Also it has now passed 75w which means it would have to head East of North to miss a land strike entirely. Getting prepared tomorrow, safe not sorry is what my grandmother always said.

  2. being inland, i’m not as concerned as shoreline people should be…i know that some of our winter storms can be as strong as a hurricane…sure it’ll be wet, but the winter brings us feet of snow…isn’t it kind of the same thing?

    1. Dave, the biggest problem is that all the trees have leaves creating a lot of drag. Those trees will either come over or lose branches, hitting power lines, house, cars, etc.

    2. The winds could very well be much worse than any winter storms!! There could be trees down everywhere, and no power for days!

  3. I’ve been tracking on Stormpulse. The models seem to change every fifteen minutes. One model has the storm coming up through New York state. Interesting.

  4. Geoff,
    Thanks for the updates. We have Cablevision of CT and we can no longer get your Fox news. The message on the screen says that they no longer carry WTIC but only the NY Fox news. It is so disappointing!!!!!!!!!!!!I can still follow you on the internet. Thanks again for your great updates re: hurricane Irene.

    Joeanna

  5. Hi Geoff,
    Is it possible for you to put the time of your post in the the post? I don’t always read the comments, and it would be helpful to see what time you are making these updates. Also, on TV, you might want to point out that people with traditional battery operated TVs will not be able to get coverage now that we have gone digital. We have not had a big power outage since the switch over to digital, and I am sure there are lots of people who will be in for a big surprise if they pull out the old battery-operated analog TV to monitor the storm once that power goes out.

  6. A category 2 making landfall in NYC could still produce a 11-12 foot storm surge. Manhattan sits just 8 feet above sea level.

  7. Geoff,

    We live inland (West Hartford). My kids really want to know if this storm does follow the projected path what can we expect in this area? I grew up on the shoreline and have never been up here for a hurricane so I really don’t know what to tell them.

    Thanks.

    Eileen

  8. This website is quite a service for those of us who no longer live in CT but have family still there. I have introduced the wisdom of wwww.geofffox.com to others in the same position. (We obviously can’t get the extended analysis on TV here.)

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