There’s a glint of good news tonight concerning Hurricane Irene. It’s a distinct band of dry air working its way around the circulation. Dry air is an inhibitor… a weakener… for hurricanes. Good for us!
It probably won’t make much difference. The Hurricane Center saw it too and remarked:
ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST…IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER…IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…STORM SURGE FLOODING…AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
You take what you can get!
Hurricane Irene is a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 mph and higher gusts. The wind field is huge–90 miles for hurricane force winds and 290 miles for tropical storm force winds.
Hurricane Warnings are up for the southern half of Connecticut. There’s a Tropical Storm Warning up for the rest.
The computer models remain in good agreement tonight. The projected path is so close to the New Jersey coastline that a ten mile shift west will mean a weaker storm. One can always hope!
A Wall Street Journal article tonight quotes Hugh Willoughby, a meteorology professor at Florida International University:
“The thing I’ve learned about hurricanes is, there is always a nasty surprise. But it’s always not as bad as it could be.”
Hurricane Irene will probably arrive a little earlier than originally expected–early afternoon as opposed to evening. I’m not sure that makes a difference.
Water will be piled into Long Island Sound and there will likely be coastal flooding at high tide Sunday evening. Again, this is a continuation of the earlier forecast.
The computer guidance has been pretty consistent on rain as well. 5-10″ are expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. We’ve already got saturated soil. The wind and rain will bring down trees and powerlines.
You’ve heard this all before!
By now you should have your pre-storm preps underway. Everything should be finished and in-lby Saturday night. Sunday will be a day to stay in place.
15 thoughts on “A Tiny Glint Of Good News On Hurricane Irene”
was hearing about some shearing late this afternoon from the weather Channel and you posted from NHC makes sense. Between those items and the colder water, we may be luckier than NC and those areas.
I’ve reading your blog faithfully all week…THANK YOU!
BTW, is Irene the same storm that was figuring out what college a sperm was going to?
This page needs a “Like” button!…. I believe this is exactly that storm Claudia!!! LoL Well Done!
This is somewhat hopeful Geoff…I’ll take it !
Thank you for your ongoing guidance and knowledge!!
I assume most damaging winds will be from south and east?
Thanks Geoff!!!!Always a meteorologist I can trust…..when you left WTNH-so did I!!! You and Dr.Mel(who had not been on in a while and since has announced his retiring) are the 2 that are very knowlegable and accurate! 🙂
i’ve got my alcohol, peanutbutter and bread and my shelter is 200 yards away if i need it…bring it on…
Love you, Geoff! Cant imagine getting through one more storm without our Geoff. Thank you for your dedication to us.
Thanks Geoff.. My Hubby is out looking for the Lanterns all have been wiped out. We got Snacks, bread and the Vodka i think were good for now.
Geoff- been reading your blog religiously for the past few days. I’m a college student in DC and was wondering when the storm will hit us and if it will be worse down here than in CT. Thanks!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnXP2NQxpeE Bring on irene! bob will protect us
Thanks Geoff for your voice of sanity amid those who swear this is the next armageddon….I know its going to be a nasty storm, and your real reporting helps us keep it all in perspective and prepare properly.
Hey,GEOFF! Always the optimist, aren’t you? LOL! I’m praying this storm will weaken enough to sit it out at home. It is so quiet and calm, right now,BUT, the humidity is awful. Damn crickets are driving me bonkers, hope mating season ends quickly!!!
The storm continues to contract in size and the rain shield is diminishing. Another over-hyped east coast hurricane!
The coastal water is too cool to sustain this storm.
Big dry wedge will suppress rainfall totals.
Watch out for the next hurricane, however!!